Ayrışma’dan Risk Azaltma’ya: Batı ile Çin Arasındaki Ticarette Yeni Dönem

Öz

İkinci dünya savaşından bu yana ekonomik karşılıklı bağımlılığın getirdiği barış dönemi ve küreselleşmenin hızlanmasıyla dünya toplumlarının refah düzeyi artmıştır. Ancak 2008-09 finansal krizi, ABD Çin arasındaki gerilen ilişkiler, küresel salgın, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ve jeopolitik gerilimler uluslararası ticareti ve küresel ekonomiyi olumsuz etkilemeye devam etmektedir. Batı ve müttefik ülkeleri, diplomatik olarak ilişkilerinin kötü olduğu ülkelerin tedarik zincirlerine bağımlı olmalarının etkilerini, yaşanan büyük şoklarda tecrübe etmişlerdir. Başta ABD olmak üzere Batılı gelişmiş ülkelerin yöneticileri işletmelerin üretimlerini dost ülkelere taşınmasının ulusal güvenlik çıkarlarıyla uyumlu olacağını ifade etmişlerdir. Dünyanın gelişmiş ekonomilerindeki politika yapıcıların aldığı kararlar işletmeleri de yeni adımlar atmaya sevk etmiştir. İkincil veriler kullanılarak hazırlanan bu araştırmada, ABD ve müttefik ülkelerin Çin’den ekonomik olarak ayrışması incelenmiş ve ekonomilerin tamamen ayrışmasının dünyanın ekonomik istikrarını bozacağı ve küresel refah kaybına yol açacağı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ayrışma
• Riski Azaltma
• Küreselleşme
• Jeopolitik
• Uluslararası Ticaret

From Decoupling to De-Risking: A New Era in Trade Between the West and China

Abstract

Since the Second World War, the welfare level of world societies has increased with the peace period brought by economic interdependence and the acceleration of globalization. However, the 2008-09 financial crisis, strained relations between the USA and China, the global pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine War and geopolitical tensions continue to negatively affect international trade and the global economy. Western and allied countries have experienced the effects of their dependence on the supply chains of countries with which they have bad diplomatic relations, in major shocks. Governments and policymakers of Western developed countries, especially the US, stated that it would be in line with national security interests for companies to move their production to allied -friendshoring- countries. Decisions taken by policy makers in the world’s developed economies have also prompted businesses to take new steps. In this study, which was prepared using secondary data, the economic decoupling of the US and allied countries from China was examined and concluded that the complete decoupling of economies will disrupt the world's economic stability and lead to a loss of global welfare.

Keywords

• Decoupling
• De-Risking
• Globalization
• Geopolitics
• International Trade

Kaynakça

1. Aiyar, S. & Ilyina, A. (2023). Charting Globalization’s Turn to Slowbalization After Global Financial Crisis. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/08/charting-globalizations-turn-to-slowbalization-after-global-financial-crisis (June 14, 2023)
2. Averbuch, M. (2023). Tesla’s Mexico Plant Means $10 Billion Investment, Governor Garcia Says -Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-03/tesla-s-mexico-plant-means-10-billion-investment-governor-says (June 8, 2023)
3. Bateman, J. (2022). US-China Technological ‘Decoupling’: A Strategy and Policy Framework. https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/25/u.s.-china-technological-decoupling-strategy-and-policy-framework-pub-86897 (June 19, 2023)
4. Boeckelmann, L., Meunier, B. & Attinasi, M. G. (2023). Friend-Shoring Global Value Chains: A Model-Based Assessment. Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2.
5. Brooks, R. (2023). We've Documented Wide-Spread & Ongoing Export Diversion of Western Goods to Russia via Central Asia. [Post]. X. https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1726979556727533616 (January 10, 2024)
6. Brooks, R. (2024). here is NO meaningful decoupling of global trade from China. [Post]. X. https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1744038987109412953 (January 10, 2024)
7. Cao, A. (2023). Tech War: China’s Chip Imports down 20 per Cent in First Five Months as Trade with South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Shrinks. https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3223274/tech-war-chinas-chip-imports-down-20-cent-first-five-months-trade-south-korea-japan-taiwan-shrinks (June 15, 2023)
8. Census.gov. (2023). Trade in Goods with China. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html (May 21, 2023)

9. Chase-Dunn, C. (2006). Globalization: A World-Systems Perspective. C. Chase-Dunn & S. J. Babones (Ed.), Global Social Change: Historical and Comparative Perspectives (79-105). JHU Press.
10. Chase-Dunn, C., Kawano, Y. & Brewer, B. D. (2000). Trade Globalization since 1795: Waves of Integration in the World-System. American Sociological Review, 77-95.
11. Chief Executive Leadership Institute. (2023). Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia-But Some Remain. https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain (May 19, 2023)
12. Clark, D. & Swanson, A. (2023). U.S. Pours Money into Chips, but Even Soaring Spending Has Limit. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/01/technology/us-chip-making-china-invest.html (June 7, 2023)
13. Comfort, N. (2022). Is Russia Banned from SWIFT and Why Hasn’t Russia Been Ousted from It?. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/swift-knocked-off-russia-sanctions-list-on-europe-s-energy-fears (February 4, 2023)
14. Congressional Research Service. (2020). COVID-19: China Medical Supply Chains and Broader Trade Issues. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46304 (May 19, 2023)
15. Constable, S. (2023). When Investors Mention ‘Decoupling,’ What Do They Mean?. https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-does-decoupling-mean-to-investors-11633112138?mod=article_inline (May 9, 2023)
16. Damen, M. (2022). BRIEFING EU Strategic Autonomy Monitor. European Parliamentary Research Service.
17. Delios, A., Perchthold, G. & Capri, A. (2021). Cohesion, COVID-19 and Contemporary Challenges to Globalization. Journal of World Business, 56(3), 101197.
18. Dezenski, E. & Austin, J. (2020). Re-Forge Strategic Alliances and Check China Abroad, Rebuild Economy at Home. Newsweek, FDD, (July 13, 2023)
19. Ellerbeck, S. (2023). What Is ‘Friendshoring’? This and Other Global Trade Buzzwords Explained. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/friendshoring-global-trade-buzzwords/ (May 9, 2023)
20. Eppinger, P., Felbermayr, G. J., Krebs, O. & Kukharskyy, B. (2021). Decoupling Global Value Chains. CESifo Working Paper No. 9079
21. EUCCC. (2022). European Companies in China Reported High Risks and High Rewards in 2021. https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/press-releases/3445 (June 10, 2023)
22. European Commission. (2021). Strategic Dependencies and Capacities. https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2021-05/swd-strategic-dependencies-capacities_en.pdf (June 2, 2023)
23. European Commission. (2022a). EU Strategic Dependencies and Capacities: Second Stage of in-Depth Reviews. https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/48878 (June 11, 2023)
24. European Commission. (2022b). European Chips Act. (https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-chips-act_en (June 10, 2023)
25. European Commission. (2023a). Special Address by the President at the World Economic Forum. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_232 (May 21, 2023)
26. European Commission. (2023b). Speech by the President on EU-China Relations. (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063 (May 23, 2023)
27. Farrell, H. & Newman, A. (2020). The Folly of Decoupling from China. Foreign Affairs.
28. Fox Business. (2023). Trump on China: ‘We Could Cut off the Whole Relationship’. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-on-china-we-could-cut-off-the-whole-relationship (May 23, 2023)
29. FRED Economic Data. (2023). Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States (TLMFGCONS). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS (June 7, 2023)
30. Gao, H., Ren, M. & Shih, T.-Y. (2023). Co-Evolutions in Global Decoupling: Learning from the Global Semiconductor Industry. International Business Review, 102118.
31. García-Herrero, A. & Tan, J. (2020). Deglobalisation in the Context of United States-China Decoupling. Policy Contribution, 21, 1-16.
32. Goswam, R. (2023). Commerce Secretary Raimondo: Over 200 Companies Seek CHIPS Act Funding. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/14/commerce-secretary-raimondo-over-200-companies-seek-chips-act-funding.html (June 7, 2023)
33. Graham, N. & Rashid, M. (2023). Is ‘Friendshoring’ Really Working?-Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-friendshoring-really-working/ (January 10, 2024)
34. Greenhoot, A. F. & Dowsett, C. J. (2012). Secondary Data Analysis: An Important Tool for Addressing Developmental Questions. Journal of Cognition and Development, 13(1), 2-18.
35. Heritage, A. (2023). Chinese Companies Build Factories in Mexico to Exploit ‘Friendshoring’-Coalition for a Prosperous America. https://prosperousamerica.org/chinese-companies-build-factories-in-mexico-to-exploit-friendshoring/ (June 8, 2023)
36. IMF. (2008). Issues Brief-Globalization: A Brief Overview. https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2008/053008.htm (June 14, 2023)
37. IMF. (2023a). Charting Globalization’s Turn to Slowbalization After Global Financial Crisis. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/08/charting-globalizations-turn-to-slowbalization-after-global-financial-crisis (June 21, 2023)
38. IMF. (2023b). Confronting Fragmentation Where It Matters Most: Trade, Debt, and Climate Action. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/01/16/Confronting-fragmentation-where-it-matters-most-trade-debt-and-climate-action (June 19, 2023)
39. IMF. (2023c). Global Financial Stability Report, April 2023.
40. IMF. (2023d). World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery.
41. Irwin, D. A. (2020). The Pandemic Adds Momentum to the Deglobalization Trend. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www. piie. com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/pandemic-adds-momentum-deglobalization-trend (May 9, 2023)
42. Johnson, K. & Gramer, R. (2020). The Great Decoupling. Foreign Policy, 14.
43. Kearney. (2023). 2022 Reshoring Index. https://www.kearney.com/service/operations-performance-transformation/us-reshoring-index (June 7, 2023)
44. Kinery, E. (2022). TSMC to up Arizona Investment to $40 Billion with Second Semiconductor Chip Plant. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investment-to-40-billion-with-second-semiconductor-chip-plant.html (June 7, 2023)
45. Krugman, P. (2022). Is This the End of Peace Through Trade?.
46. Leahy, J. & White, E. (2023). Xi Jinping Meets ‘Old Friend’ Bill Gates Ahead of Antony Blinken’s China Visit.
47. Liu, K. (2023). America’s Decoupling from China: A Perspective from Stock Markets. Economic Affairs, 43(1), 32-52.
48. Lohr, S. (2022). Micron Pledges Up to $100 Billion for Semiconductor Factory in New York. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/technology/micron-chip-clay-syracuse.html (June 7, 2023)
49. Lynn, B. (2002). Unmade in America. Harper’s Magazine.
50. Mahoney, N. (2023). Could Mexico Replace China as Top Global Manufacturing Exporter?. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/could-mexico-replace-china-as-top-global-manufacturing-exporter (June 8, 2023)
51. MapChart.net. (2023). Create Your Own Custom Map. https://www.mapchart.net/ (May 26, 2023)
52. Marcelo Ebrard C. [@m_ebrard]. (2022). En Desayuno Con El CEO Dialogue US-México, El Presidente López Obrador Informa Que Las Inversiones de Empresas de EU En Nuestro País Que Serán Efectuadas Entre Esta Fecha y 2024 Suman Ya 40 Mil Millones de Dólares.
53. McKinsey. (2022). The CHIPS and Science Act: What Is It and What Is in It?. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-chips-and-science-act-heres-whats-in-it (June 7, 2023)
54. Mishra, V. (2023). The Great Us-China Tech Decoupling: Perils of Techno-Nationalism. Adrift at Sea: Lighthouse in the Tempest?.
55. Moens, B. (2022). Ukraine Presses the EU to Get Real About Trading with the Enemy. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-geopolitics-in-eu-trade-china-russia/ (June 21, 2023)
56. Monga, V. (2023). Joe Biden’s Push to Counter China Steers EV Investments to Canada. https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-push-to-counter-china-steers-ev-investments-to-canada-a3095936 (June 9, 2023)
57. New York FED. (2023). Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive (April 25, 2023)
58. Okonjo-Iweala, N. (2023). Why the World Still Needs Trade. Foreign Affairs, 103(4).
59. Ourworldindata.org. (2023). Globalization over 5 Centuries. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/globalization-over-5-centuries-km (June 21, 2023)
60. Parti, T. & Harrup, A. (2023). Biden Summit with López Obrador, Trudeau Focuses on Migration, Supply Chains. https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-summit-with-lopez-obrador-trudeau-to-focus-on-migration-supply-chains-11673241684?mod=article_inline (June 8, 2023)
61. Rhodium Group. (2023). The US-China Investment Hub. https://www.us-china-investment.org/fdi-data (June 14, 2023)
62. Sanderson, H. (2024). The Problem with De-Risking. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/problem-risking (January 10, 2024)
63. Shih, W. C. (2020). Global Supply Chains in a Post-Pandemic World. Harvard Business Review 98(5), 82-89.
64. Statistics Canada. (2023). Canada’s Foreign Direct Investment Position. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230428/cg-b001-eng.htm (June 9, 2023)
65. Tang, L., Cao, C., Wang, Z. & Zhou, Z. (2021). Decoupling in Science and Education: A Collateral Damage beyond Deteriorating US-China Relations. Science and Public Policy, 48(5), 630-634.
66. Tankersley, J. & Plumer, B. (2023). Biden’s Climate Tax Breaks Are Popular, Driving Up Law’s Cost. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/business/ira-climate-tax-breaks-biden.html (June 7, 2023)
67. The Economist. (2019). The Global List; Globalisation Has Faltered. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/24/globalisation-has-faltered (May 19, 2023)
68. The Economist. (2022). Russia Is Using Energy as a Weapon. https://www.economist.com/interactive/graphic-detail/2022/11/26/high-fuel-prices-could-kill-more-europeans-than-fighting-in-ukraine-has (June 6, 2023)
69. The Economist. (2023a). Don’t be Fooled by America’s “New” Supply Chains. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/11/14/dont-be-fooled-by-americas-new-supply-chains (January 10, 2024)
70. The Economist. (2023b). Global Firms are Eyeing Asian Alternatives to Chinese Manufacturing. https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/20/global-firms-are-eyeing-asian-alternatives-to-chinese-manufacturing (May 26, 2023
71. The Economist. (2023c). Investment in Ports Foretell the Future of Global Commerce. https://www.economist.com/interactive/business/2023/01/14/investments-in-ports-foretell-the-future-of-global-commerce (May 26, 2023)
72. Tooze, A. (2022). Welcome to the World of the Polycrisis. https://www.ft.com/content/498398e7-11b1-494b-9cd3-6d669dc3de33 (June 13, 2023)
73. Trade Map. (2023). Trade Map-Trade Statistics for International Business Development. https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx (May 16, 2023)
74. Tran, H. (2022). Our Guide to Friend-Shoring: Sectors to Watch. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/our-guide-to-friend-shoring-sectors-to-watch/ (May 28, 2023)
75. Trzesniewski, K. H., Donnellan, M. B. & Lucas, E. R. (2011). Secondary Data Analysis: An Introduction for Psychologists. JSTOR.
76. Tsang, S. (2020). The ‘Great Decoupling’: Drivers Shaping US-China Relations. Emirates Diplomatic Academy.
77. US Department of the Treasury. (2022). Commerce Implements New Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-items-controls-to-prc (June 16, 2023)
78. US Department of the Treasury. (2023a). Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on the U.S.-China Economic Relationship at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1425 (May 23, 2023)
79. US Department of the Treasury. (2023b). The Department of the Treasury’s De-Risking Strategy. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1438 (May 25, 2023)
80. US Department of the Treasury. (2023c). TradeStats Express. https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/tradestats-express-state-trade-partner-countries-and-regions (May 25, 2023)
81. White House. (2021). Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/100-day-supply-chain-review-report.pdf (June 25, 2023)
82. White House. (2022). Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/02/24/executive-order-on-americas-supply-chains/ (June 11, 2023)
83. White House. (2023a). G7 Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/20/g7-hiroshima-leaders-communique/ (May 23, 2023)
84. White House. (2023b). Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/27/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-renewing-american-economic-leadership-at-the-brookings-institution/ (May 23, 2023)
85. Witt, M. A. (2019). De-Globalization: Theories, Predictions, and Opportunities for International Business Research. Journal of International Business Studies, 50(7), 1053-1077.
86. Witt, M. A., Lewin, A. Y., Li, P. P. & Gaur, A. (2023). Decoupling in International Business: Evidence, Drivers, Impact, and Implications for IB Research. Journal of World Business, 58(1), 101399.
87. World Bank. (2023a). Foreign Direct Investment, Net Inflows (% of GDP). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS (April 25, 2023)
88. World Bank. (2023b). Imports of Goods and Services (% of GDP). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS (April 25, 2023)
89. World Bank. (2023c). World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). https://wits.worldbank.org/Default.aspx?lang=en (May 16, 2023)
90. World Economic Forum. (2023). Global Risks Report 2023. https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2023/digest/ (June 10, 2023)
91. WTW. (2023). 2023 Political Risk Survey Report. https://www.wtwco.com/en-us/insights/2023/04/2023-political-risk-survey-report (June 10, 2023)
92. Wu, W., Zhang, H., Huang, L. & Wang, L. (2022). Measuring the Market Power of China’s Medical Product Exports. Frontiers in Public Health, 10.
93. Yellen, J. L. (2022). Transcript: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the next Steps for Russia Sanctions and ‘friend-Shoring’ Supply Chains. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/transcript-us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-next-steps-for-russia-sanctions-and-friend-shoring-supply-chains/ (June 23, 2023)