Green Energy Transition and Development Outcomes in Emerging Economies

Öz

This paper investigates the economic and environmental effects of the green energy transition in emerging market economies. Focusing on ten major emerging countries from 2010 to 2022, we examine how renewable energy consumption relates to economic growth, sustainable development, and environmental outcomes. Using panel data and a two-way fixed effects model (with country and year fixed effects), we analyze three key dimensions of development: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, broad-based sustainable development (measured via the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Index and Human Development Index (HDI), and environmental quality (per capita CO₂ emissions). The empirical results indicate that expanding renewable energy usage significantly reduces CO₂ emissions, but it may entail a modest short-term trade-off with economic growth. Renewable energy’s impact on composite sustainable development indicators is less immediate: we find no clear short-run effect on the SDG index, even as renewable uptake shows a positive association with the HDI. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) exhibits a negative relationship with carbon emissions (suggesting a potential “pollution halo” effect), whereas greater trade openness is associated with higher emissions. These findings highlight important policy implications for emerging economies — namely, while green energy transitions can yield substantial environmental benefits and support human development, complementary economic policies are needed to mitigate short-run growth costs and fully realize sustainable development gains.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Green Energy Transition
• Sustainable Development
• Renewable Energy
• Economic Growth

Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomilerde Yeşil Enerji Geçişi ve Kalkınma Sonuçları

Öz

Bu çalışma, gelişmekte olan piyasa ekonomilerinde yeşil enerji dönüşümünün ekonomik ve çevresel etkilerini incelemektedir. 2010–2022 dönemini kapsayan ve on önde gelen gelişmekte olan ülkeye odaklanan analizde, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme, sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve çevresel sonuçlarla olan ilişkisi araştırılmaktadır. Ülke ve yıl sabit etkilerini içeren iki yönlü sabit etkiler modeli (two-way fixed effects model) ile panel veri kullanılarak kalkınmanın üç temel boyutu incelenmiştir: kişi başına düşen gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYH), sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın geniş tabanlı ölçütleri (Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları (SKA) Endeksi ve İnsani Gelişme Endeksi (İGE) ile ölçülmüştür) ve çevresel kalite (kişi başına düşen CO₂ emisyonları). Ampirik bulgular, yenilenebilir enerji kullanımının artmasının CO₂ emisyonlarını anlamlı biçimde azalttığını, ancak kısa vadede ekonomik büyüme üzerinde sınırlı bir ödünleşme (trade-off) yaratabileceğini göstermektedir. Yenilenebilir enerjinin bileşik sürdürülebilir kalkınma göstergeleri üzerindeki etkisi ise daha dolaylıdır: Yenilenebilir enerji kullanımının artışı İGE ile pozitif bir ilişki gösterirken, SKA Endeksi üzerinde kısa vadeli belirgin bir etkisi gözlemlenmemiştir. Ayrıca, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların (DYY) karbon emisyonlarıyla negatif bir ilişki içinde olduğu (muhtemel bir “kirlilik hâlesi” etkisine işaret eden) tespit edilirken, dışa açıklığın artmasının daha yüksek emisyonlarla ilişkili olduğu bulunmuştur. Bu bulgular, gelişmekte olan ekonomiler açısından önemli politika çıkarımlarına işaret etmektedir. Buna göre, yeşil enerji dönüşümleri çevresel faydalar sağlayarak insani gelişimi destekleyebilse de, kısa vadeli büyüme maliyetlerini azaltmak ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma kazanımlarını tam anlamıyla gerçekleştirmek için tamamlayıcı ekonomik politikaların uygulanması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma
• Yenilenebilir Enerji
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Yeşil Enerji Dönüşümü

Kaynakça

1. Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Bursztyn, L., & Hemous, D. (2012). The environment and directed technical change. American Economic Review, 102(1), 131–166. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.1.131
2. Al-mulali, U., Saboori, B., & Ozturk, I. (2015). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy Policy, 76, 123–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.019
3. Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Energy Policy, 38(1), 656–660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.002
4. Aydin, M., Degirmenci, T., Erdem, A., Sogut, Y., & Demirtas, N. (2024). From public policy towards the green energy transition: Do economic freedom, economic globalization, environmental policy stringency, and material productivity matter? Energy, 311, 133404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.133404
5. Bhuiyan, M. A., Zhang, Q., Khare, V., Mikhaylov, A., Pinter, G., & Huang, X. (2022). Renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus—A systematic literature review. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, Article 878394. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.878394
6. Bilgili, F., Koçak, E., & Bulut, Ü. (2016). The dynamic impact of renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions: A revisited Environmental Kuznets Curve approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 54, 838–845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.10.080
7. Brock, W. A., & Taylor, M. S. (2010). The green Solow model. Journal of Economic Growth, 15(2), 127–153. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-010-9051-0
8. Cole, M. A., Elliott, R. J. R., & Fredriksson, P. G. (2006). Endogenous pollution havens: Does FDI influence environmental regulations?. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 108(1), 157–178. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2006.00439.x

9. Danish, Ulucak, R., Khan, S. U. D., Baloch, M. A., & Li, N. (2020). Mitigation pathways toward sustainable development: Is there any trade‐off between environmental regulation and carbon emissions reduction?. Sustainable Development, 28(4), 813-822. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2032
10. Dogan, E., & Seker, F. (2016). Determinants of CO₂ emissions in the European Union: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy. Renewable Energy, 94, 429–439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.03.078
11. Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353–377. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
12. Inglesi-Lotz, R. (2016). The impact of renewable energy consumption to economic growth: A panel data application. Energy Economics, 53, 58–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.01.003
13. International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). World Energy Investment 2023. Paris: IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023 (10.09.2025)
14. Koçak, E., & Şarkgüneşi, A. (2017). The renewable energy and economic growth nexus in Black Sea and Balkan countries. Energy Policy, 100, 51-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.007
15. Lyeonov, S., Pimonenko, T., Bilan, Y., Štreimikienė, D., & Mentel, G. (2019). Assessment of green investments’ impact on sustainable development: Linking gross domestic product per capita, greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. Energies, 12(20), 3891. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12203891
16. Majid, M. (2020). Renewable energy for sustainable development in India: current status, future prospects, challenges, employment, and investment opportunities. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 10(1), 1-36. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-019-0232-1
17. Menyah, K., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2010). CO₂ emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in the US. Energy Policy, 38(6), 2911–2915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.024
18. Omri, A., & Nguyen, D. K. (2014). On the determinants of renewable energy consumption: International evidence. Energy, 72, 554-560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.05.081
19. Parab, N., Naik, R., & Reddy, Y. V. (2020). Renewable energy, foreign direct investment and sustainable development: An empirical evidence. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(5), 479-484. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10206
20. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71–102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725
21. Sachs, J. D., Schmidt-Traub, G., Kroll, C., Durand-Delacre, D., & Teksoz, K. (2017). SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2017. New York: Bertelsmann Stiftung and Sustainable Development Solutions Network. https://www.unsdsn.org/resources/sdg-index-and-dashboards-report-2017/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=13253704546&gbraid=0AAAAABdu6wzZsK2yyIcl1K4GQXUyGNh1R&gclid=Cj0KCQjwo63HBhCKARIsAHOHV_Xbiz_2gjMTFrdxcFm4aNf8PzPyEuVlVbgyClJ5Kqj9XN1-MbQVUP8aAlVJEALw_wcB (09.09.2025)
22. Sadorsky, P. (2009). Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies. Energy Policy, 37(10), 4021–4028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.003
23. Sadorsky, P. (2009). Renewable energy consumption, CO₂ emissions and oil prices in the G7 countries. Energy Economics, 31(3), 456–462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.12.010
24. Shahbaz, M., Lean, H. H., & Shabbir, M. S. (2012). Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 166–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.015
25. Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., Zeshan, M., & Zaman, K. (2015). Does renewable energy consumption add to economic growth? An application of the ARDL bounds testing approach in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 576–585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.033
26. Zhao, T., & Shah, S. A. A. (2024). Green energy, economic growth, and innovation for sustainable development in OECD countries. Sustainability, 16(22), 10113. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162210113