Analysis of Asymmetric Relationship Between Tourism Revenues and Real Exchange Rate

Öz

Tourism is one of the most important sectors of today's modern world. Countries prepare various incentives and regulations in order to increase their share in tourism revenues. In addition to all these incentives, some data on the structural issues of the country affect tourism revenues. This study analyzes the asymmetrical relationship between the real exchange rate and tourism revenues for the Turkey. 2003: Q1-2020: Q1 has been investigated for periods. According to the non-linear ARDL analysis results, between the exchange rate and tourism revenues an asymmetric relationship in the long run and a symmetric relationship in the short run has been determined. Accordingly, a positive shock in the exchange rate increases tourism revenues by approximately 0.6%, while a negative shock increases tourism revenues by approximately 0.3%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism revenues
• tourism
• real exchange rate
• NARDL
• assymetry

Turizm Gelirleri ve Reel Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkinin Analizi

Öz

Turizm günümüz modern dünyasının en önemli sektörlerinden birisidir. Ülkeler turizm gelirlerine ilişkin paylarını arttırmak amacıyla çeşitli teşvikler ve düzenlemeler hazırlamaktadır. Yapılan tüm bu teşviklerin yanında ülkenin yapısal değişkenlerine ilişkin bazı verilerde turizm gelirlerini etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için döviz kuru ile turizm gelirleri arasındaki asimetrik ilişkinin analizi 2003:Q1-2020:Q1 dönemleri itibariyle araştırılmıştır. Doğrusal olmayan ARDL analiz sonuçlarına göre döviz kuru ile turizm gelirleri arasında uzun dönemde asimetrik, kısa dönemde ise simetrik bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre döviz kurunda meydana gelecek pozitif bir şok turizm gelirlerini yaklaşık olarak %0,6 arttırırken, negatif bir şok ise turizm gelirlerini yaklaşık olarak %0,3 arttırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• turizm gelirleri
• turizm
• reel döviz kuru
• NARDL
• asimetri

Kaynakça

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