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Büyüme İvmelenmesi ve Demografik Yapı: ECOWAS Ülkeleri Örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 1059 - 1070, 14.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1077283

Öz

Ülkelerin demografik yapısı ekonomik büyüme üzerinde önemli etkilere sahiptir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin çoğu demografik geçiş sürecini deneyimlemektedir. Afrika ülkeleri diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelere oranla hala daha yüksek doğurganlık oranlarına sahip olsalar da doğurganlık oranları azalan bir eğilim göstermektedir. Bu durum Afrika ülkelerinde potansiyel bir demografik temettü için bir fırsat penceresine yol açmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, bu çalışmada, 1961-2019 döneminde, ECOWAS (Batı Afrika Ülkeleri Ekonomik Topluluğu) ülkelerinde demografik yapı ile büyüme ivmelenmesi arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, öncelikle Hausmann vd. (2005) tarafından geliştirilen büyüme ivmelenmesi metodolojisi kullanılarak büyüme ivmelenmesi gerçekleşen dönemler belirlenmektedir. Daha sonra büyüme ivmelenmesinin demografik belirleyicileri panel probit yöntemi aracılığıyla incelenmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, kentsel nüfus ve doğumda beklenen yaşam süresinin büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığı üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi olduğunu gösterirken; doğurganlık oranının ise büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığı üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer bir deyişle kentsel nüfus ve doğumda beklenen yaşam süresindeki artış büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığını artırırken, doğurganlık oranındaki artış ise büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığını azaltmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, bağımlılık oranı, yaşlı bağımlılık oranı ve genç bağımlılık oranı ile büyüme ivmelenmesi olasılığı arasında negatif yönlü ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abu-Ghaida, D., & Klasen, S. (2004). The costs of missing the millennium development goal on gender equity. World Development, 32(7), 1075-1107.
  • Aiyar, S., Ebeke, C. & Shao, X. (2016). The impact of workforce aging on European productivity (IMF Working Paper No. 238). International Monetary Fund
  • Ashraf, Q. H., Weil, D. N., & Wilde, J. (2013). The effect of fertility reduction on economic growth. Population and Development Review, 39(1), 97-130.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2004). Global demographic change: dimensions and economic significance (IMF Working Paper No. 10817). International Monetary Fund
  • Bloom, D. E., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 4(1), 45-64.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
  • Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Malaney, P. N. (1999). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia (CID Working Paper Series. No.15). Center for International Development.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2007). Realizing the demographic dividend: Is Africa any different? (PGDA Working Paper No. 23). Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. P. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic transition (NBER Working Paper No. 8685). The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic growth, 14(2), 79-101.
  • Bloom, D., Finlay, J., Humair, S., Mason, A., Olaniyan, O., & Soyibo, A. (2010, June). Prospects for economic growth in Nigeria: a demographic perspective. In IUSSP Seminar on Demographics and Macroeconomic Performance, Paris, France.
  • Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2017). Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. Journal of Demographic Economics, 83(1), 63-76.
  • Bloom, D., Canning, D. & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica CA: Rand Corporation
  • Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2011). Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition. Journal of economic growth, 16(2), 99-133.
  • Cruz, M., & Ahmed, S. A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World Development, 105, 95-106.
  • ECOWREX (2008) Ecowas environmental policy. Available at: http://www.ecowrex.org/system/files/repository/2008_ecowas_environmental_policy_-_ecowas.pdf , accessed: 25.12.2021
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2011). When fast growing economies slow down: international evidence and implications for the People’s Republic of China (ADB Working Paper No. 262). Asian Development Bank.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2013). Growth slowdowns redux: New evidence on the middle-income trap (NBER Working Paper No. w18673). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Ehrlich, I., & Lui, F. (1997). The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 205-242.
  • Greene, H. W. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Hausmann, R., Pritchett, L., & Rodrik, D. (2005). Growth accelerations. Journal of economic growth, 10(4), 303-329.
  • Headey, D. D., & Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and development review, 35(2), 221-248.
  • Hoşgör, Ş,. & Tansel, A. (2010). 2050'ye Doğru Nüfusbilim ve Yönetim: Eğitim, İşgücü, Sağlık ve Sosyal Güvenlik Sistemlerine Yansımalar. TÜSİAD, 505.
  • Hu, Q., Lei, X., & Zhao, B. (2021). Demographic changes and economic growth: ımpact and mechanisms. China Economic Journal, 14(3), 223-242.
  • Iqbal, K., Yasmin, N., & Yaseen, M. R. (2015). Impact of demographic transition on economic growth of Pakistan. Journal of Finance and Economics, 3(2), 44-50.
  • Isaksson, A. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity: A literature review. Research and Statistics Branch, 101
  • Karra, M., Canning, D., & Wilde, J. (2017). The effect of fertility decline on economic growth in Africa: A macrosimulation model. Population and Development Review, 43, 237-263.
  • Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis. Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 275-300.
  • Kelley, A., & Schmidt, R. (1995). Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change. Demography, 32(4), 543–555.
  • Kunze, L. (2014). Life expectancy and economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 54-65.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2010). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. European Journal of Population,26(2), 159-182.
  • Lee, R., Lee, S. H., & Mason, A. (2006). Charting the economic life cycle. (NBER Working Paper No. 12379). The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Li, Y. (2016). The Relationship Between Fertility Rate and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. (Unpublished master's thesis). Lund University, Sweden.
  • Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: What have we learned from the East Asia experience? Applied Population and Policy, 1(1), 3-14.
  • Menike, H. A. (2018). A literature review on population growth and economic development. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education, 5(5), 67-74.
  • Minh, N. T. (2009). Dynamic demographics and economic growth in Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14(4), 389-398.
  • Rosado, J. A., & Alvarado, I. (2017). From population age structure and savings rate to economic growth: Evidence from Ecuador. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 352.
  • Nguyen, H. M., & Nguyen, L.D. (2018). The relationship between urbanization and economic growth: an empirical study on ASEAN countries. International Journal of Social Economics. 45(2), pp.316-339
  • Olanipekun, D. B., & Akeju, K. F. (2017). Demographic determinants of savings in ECOWAS. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 1-11.
  • United Nations (2019). World Population Prospects. Accessed at: https://population.un.org/wpp/
  • Ursavaş, U., & Sarıbaş, H. (2020). Middle-income trap and factors affecting the risk of growth slowdown in upper-middle-income countries. Economics and Business Letters, 9(4), 350-360.
  • Yasin, J. (2008). Demographic structure and private savings: some evidence from Emerging markets. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 7-21.

Growth Acceleration and Demographic Structure: The Case of ECOWAS Countries

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3, 1059 - 1070, 14.09.2022
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1077283

Öz

The demographic structure of countries has significant effects on economic growth. Most developing countries are passing through a demographic transition. Although African countries still have higher fertility rates than other developing countries, fertility rates show a decreasing trend, which leads to a window of opportunity for potential demographic dividend for African countries. Within this context, this paper investigates the relationship between growth accelerations and demographic structure in ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) countries over the period 1961-2019. To do so, first, we identify the growth acceleration episodes using the growth acceleration methodology developed by Hausmann et al. (2005). Then, we test the demographic determinants of growth accelerations employing the panel probit regression method. The results show that while urban population and life expectancy have a significant and positive impact on the likelihood of growth accelerations, the fertility rate has a negative and significant impact on the probability of growth accelerations. In other words, an increase in urban population and life expectancy at birth increases the likelihood of growth accelerations, whereas an increase in fertility rate decreases the probability. However, the results show a negative but statistically insignificant relationship between age dependency, young-age dependency, and old-age dependency ratios and the likelihood of growth accelerations.

Kaynakça

  • Abu-Ghaida, D., & Klasen, S. (2004). The costs of missing the millennium development goal on gender equity. World Development, 32(7), 1075-1107.
  • Aiyar, S., Ebeke, C. & Shao, X. (2016). The impact of workforce aging on European productivity (IMF Working Paper No. 238). International Monetary Fund
  • Ashraf, Q. H., Weil, D. N., & Wilde, J. (2013). The effect of fertility reduction on economic growth. Population and Development Review, 39(1), 97-130.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2004). Global demographic change: dimensions and economic significance (IMF Working Paper No. 10817). International Monetary Fund
  • Bloom, D. E., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 4(1), 45-64.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
  • Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Malaney, P. N. (1999). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia (CID Working Paper Series. No.15). Center for International Development.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2007). Realizing the demographic dividend: Is Africa any different? (PGDA Working Paper No. 23). Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. P. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic transition (NBER Working Paper No. 8685). The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic growth, 14(2), 79-101.
  • Bloom, D., Finlay, J., Humair, S., Mason, A., Olaniyan, O., & Soyibo, A. (2010, June). Prospects for economic growth in Nigeria: a demographic perspective. In IUSSP Seminar on Demographics and Macroeconomic Performance, Paris, France.
  • Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2017). Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. Journal of Demographic Economics, 83(1), 63-76.
  • Bloom, D., Canning, D. & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica CA: Rand Corporation
  • Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2011). Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition. Journal of economic growth, 16(2), 99-133.
  • Cruz, M., & Ahmed, S. A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World Development, 105, 95-106.
  • ECOWREX (2008) Ecowas environmental policy. Available at: http://www.ecowrex.org/system/files/repository/2008_ecowas_environmental_policy_-_ecowas.pdf , accessed: 25.12.2021
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2011). When fast growing economies slow down: international evidence and implications for the People’s Republic of China (ADB Working Paper No. 262). Asian Development Bank.
  • Eichengreen, B., Park, D., & Shin, K. (2013). Growth slowdowns redux: New evidence on the middle-income trap (NBER Working Paper No. w18673). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Ehrlich, I., & Lui, F. (1997). The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(1), 205-242.
  • Greene, H. W. (2003). Econometric analysis. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Hausmann, R., Pritchett, L., & Rodrik, D. (2005). Growth accelerations. Journal of economic growth, 10(4), 303-329.
  • Headey, D. D., & Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and development review, 35(2), 221-248.
  • Hoşgör, Ş,. & Tansel, A. (2010). 2050'ye Doğru Nüfusbilim ve Yönetim: Eğitim, İşgücü, Sağlık ve Sosyal Güvenlik Sistemlerine Yansımalar. TÜSİAD, 505.
  • Hu, Q., Lei, X., & Zhao, B. (2021). Demographic changes and economic growth: ımpact and mechanisms. China Economic Journal, 14(3), 223-242.
  • Iqbal, K., Yasmin, N., & Yaseen, M. R. (2015). Impact of demographic transition on economic growth of Pakistan. Journal of Finance and Economics, 3(2), 44-50.
  • Isaksson, A. (2007). Determinants of total factor productivity: A literature review. Research and Statistics Branch, 101
  • Karra, M., Canning, D., & Wilde, J. (2017). The effect of fertility decline on economic growth in Africa: A macrosimulation model. Population and Development Review, 43, 237-263.
  • Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis. Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 275-300.
  • Kelley, A., & Schmidt, R. (1995). Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change. Demography, 32(4), 543–555.
  • Kunze, L. (2014). Life expectancy and economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 54-65.
  • Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2010). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. European Journal of Population,26(2), 159-182.
  • Lee, R., Lee, S. H., & Mason, A. (2006). Charting the economic life cycle. (NBER Working Paper No. 12379). The National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Li, Y. (2016). The Relationship Between Fertility Rate and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. (Unpublished master's thesis). Lund University, Sweden.
  • Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: What have we learned from the East Asia experience? Applied Population and Policy, 1(1), 3-14.
  • Menike, H. A. (2018). A literature review on population growth and economic development. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education, 5(5), 67-74.
  • Minh, N. T. (2009). Dynamic demographics and economic growth in Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14(4), 389-398.
  • Rosado, J. A., & Alvarado, I. (2017). From population age structure and savings rate to economic growth: Evidence from Ecuador. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 352.
  • Nguyen, H. M., & Nguyen, L.D. (2018). The relationship between urbanization and economic growth: an empirical study on ASEAN countries. International Journal of Social Economics. 45(2), pp.316-339
  • Olanipekun, D. B., & Akeju, K. F. (2017). Demographic determinants of savings in ECOWAS. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 1-11.
  • United Nations (2019). World Population Prospects. Accessed at: https://population.un.org/wpp/
  • Ursavaş, U., & Sarıbaş, H. (2020). Middle-income trap and factors affecting the risk of growth slowdown in upper-middle-income countries. Economics and Business Letters, 9(4), 350-360.
  • Yasin, J. (2008). Demographic structure and private savings: some evidence from Emerging markets. African Review of Money Finance and Banking, 7-21.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Uğur Ursavaş 0000-0003-1918-1457

Yayımlanma Tarihi 14 Eylül 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Ursavaş, U. (2022). Growth Acceleration and Demographic Structure: The Case of ECOWAS Countries. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(3), 1059-1070. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1077283

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