2008 Küresel Ekonomik Krizi ve Türkiye’de Sektör Karlılığı

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 1700 - 1720, 25.05.2023

İsmail Çakmak Selcen Öztürk

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1210956

Öz

2008 küresel ekonomik krizi, Dünya’nın son dönemde yüzleştiği en büyük ekonomik olaylardan birisidir. Finansal kesimde başlayan kriz, yayılmacı ve bulaşıcı etkisi ile kısa sürede az gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve gelişmiş ekonomilerin reel sektörlerine de sıçrayarak bütüncül bir ekonomik kriz halini almıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2008 krizinin Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren sektörlerin kârlılıklarına olan etkisini analiz etmektir. Çalışmada ayrıca, kriz döneminde kârlılığa hangi faktörlerin etki ettiği ve yapılan forecasting (tahmin) analizi ile kriz olmasa idi sektör kârlılıkları nasıl seyrederdi sorularına da cevap aranmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda 2006-2014 arası dönemde faktör maliyet ile katma değer, ihracat, yurt içi satışlar ve kambiyo kârının sektör kârlılıklarını anlamlı ve pozitif etkilediği, bunun yanında başta imalat sanayi olmak üzere inşaat ve ulaştırma sektörlerinin ise krizden anlamlı derecede etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Kriz etkilerinin minimize edilmeye çalışıldığı sonraki yıllarda ise uygulanan politikalar ile sektör kârlılıklarının toparlanma eğilimine girdiği ve hatta beklenen kârlılığın üzerine çıktığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

2008 Krizi, Forecasting Analizi, Türkiye Ekonomisi

2008 Global Economic Crisis and Sector Profitability in Turkey

Öz

The 2008 global economic crisis stands out as one of the most significant economic events in recent history. From originating in the financial sector, the crisis swiftly spread to the real sectors of developed and developing economies, its contagious effects exacerbating the situation. This study aims to examine the impact of the 2008 crisis on sectoral profitability in Turkey. Specifically, the study seeks to identify the factors that affected profitability during the crisis and to forecast sectoral profitability in the absence of the crisis. The findings of the study demonstrate that between 2006 and 2014, factor costs with value added, exports, domestic sales, and foreign exchange profits had a significant and positive impact on sectoral profitability. Furthermore, it was found that the construction and transportation sectors, particularly the manufacturing industry, were significantly affected by the crisis. However, in subsequent years, as efforts were made to mitigate the effects of the crisis, the profitability of the sectors began to recover, even surpassing the projected profits with the implementation of supportive policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

2008 Crisis, Forecasting Analysis, Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

• Akgül Yılmaz, G. (2013). Türkiye’de 2008-2009 Krizinde Uygulanan Genişletici Vergi Politikasının Üretim Üzerindeki Etkileri. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 34(1), 213-228.
• Alessandria, G., Arkolakis, C. & Ruhl, K. J. (2021). Firm Dynamics and Trade. Annual Review of Economics, 13, 253-280.
• Aloui, R., Aïssa, M. S. B. & Nguyen, D. K. (2011). Global Financial Crisis, Extreme Interdependences, and Contagion Effects: The Role of Economic Structure?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(1), 130-141.
• Arabacı, H. (2018). Türkiye’de Bankacılık Sektörünün Gelişimi. Meriç Uluslararası Sosyal ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2(3), 25-42.
• Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Forecasting with Panel Data. Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 153-173.
• Baycan, I. O. & Yildirim, G. (2017). Examining The Dynamics of the Turkish Manufacturing Industry: A Hidden Markov Model Approach. Chinese Journal of Physics, 55(3), 703-709.
• Becker-Blease, J. R., Kaen, F. R., Etebari, A. & Baumann, H. (2010). Employees, Firm Size and Profitability of US Manufacturing Industries. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 7(2).
• Bilici, N. (2019). Turizm Sektörünün Finansal Performansının Oran Analizi ve Topsis Yöntemiyle Değerlendirilmesi. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23(1), 173-194.
• Bocutoğlu, E. (2001). Makro İktisat Keynesyen Teori ve Politikalar. Derya Kitabevi, Trabzon.
• Borghi, R. A. Z. (2017). The Brazilian Productive Structure and Policy Responses in the Face of the International Economic Crisis: An Assessment Based on Input-Output Analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 43, 62-75.
• Brown, G. W. (2001). Managing Foreign Exchange Risk with Derivatives. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2), 401-448.
• Carini, C. & Carpita, M. (2014). The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Italian Cooperatives in the Industrial Sector. Journal of Co-operative Organization and Management, 2(1), 14-23.
• Cenedese, G., Sarno, L. & Tsiakas, I. (2014). Foreign Exchange Risk and the Predictability of Carry Trade Returns. Journal of Banking & Finance, 42, 302-313.
• Cerrato, D., Alessandri, T. & Depperu, D. (2016). Economic Crisis, Acquisitions and Firm Performance. Long Range Planning, 49(2), 171-185.
• Chiu, S. C., Lin, H. C. & Wang, C. S. (2017). The Impact of Investments in Pollution Reduction on Shareholder Wealth: Evidence from Taiwanese Manufacturing Companies. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 24(6), 676-691.
• Chung, R. C., Ip, W. H. & Chan, S. L. (2009). An ARIMA-Intervention Analysis Model for the Financial Crisis in China's Manufacturing Industry. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 1, 5.
• Coulibaly, B., Sapriza, H. & Zlate, A. (2013). Financial Frictions, Trade Credit, and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 26, 25-38.
• Da Silva, M. F., Pereira, É. J. D. A. L., da Silva Filho, A. M., de Castro, A. P. N., Miranda, J. G. V. & Zebende, G. F. (2016). Quantifying the Contagion Effect of the 2008 Financial Crisis Between the G7 Countries (by GDP nominal). Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 453, 1-8.
• Dhasmana, A. (2015). Transmission of Real Exchange Rate to the Manufacturing Sector: Role of Financial Access. International Economics, 48-69.
• Diamond, D. W. & Dybvig, P. H. (1983). Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401-419.
• Didier, T., Hevia, C. & Schmukler, S. L. (2012). How Resilient and Countercyclical Were Emerging Economies During the Global Financial Crisis?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(8), 2052-2077.
• Eaton, J., Kortum, S., Neiman, B. & Romalis, J. (2016). Trade and the Global Recession. American Economic Review, 106(11), 3401-38.
• Erdönmez, P. A. (2009). Küresel Kriz ve Ülkeler Tarafından Alınan Önlemler Kronolojisi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 68(2009), 85-101.
• Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics (4th Edition). McGraw Hill: United States.
• Gümüş, F. B. & Aydemir, L. (2014). 2008 Küresel Finans Krizinin Sektörel Bazda Şirket Mali Tablolarına Etkilerinin Analizi. İşletme Bilimi Dergisi, 2(1), 37-64.
• Günay, S. G. & Kesimli, İ. G. (2011). Global Ekonomik Krizin İnşaat Sektörüne Etkisi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (51), 81-102.
• Haerer, D. & Pratson, L. (2015). Employment Trends in the US Electricity Sector, 2008–2012. Energy Policy, 82, 85-98.
• Hannan, R. L. (2005). The Combined Effect of Wages and Firm Profit on Employee Effort. The Accounting Review, 80(1), 167-188.
• Hasan, R. & Mohammad, S. M. (2015). Multifractal Analysis of Asian Markets During 2007–2008 Financial Crisis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 419, 746-761.
• Hu, L. (2012). Prediction and Analysis for Chinese Machinery Manufacturing System Based on the ARMA. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 121, 3396-3400. Trans Tech Publications.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF). (1998). World Economic Outlook, May 1998. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
• Kafalı, M. A. (2012). Motorlu Kara Taşıtı, Römork ve Yarı Römork İmalatı. Türkiye İmalat Sanayinin Analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Müdürlüğü. Türkiye Kalkınma Bankası. Ankara.
• Karaca, S. S. & Çiğdem, R. (2013). Türkiye Ekonomisi'nde Yaşanan 1994-2001 Ekonomik Krizlerinin ve 2008 Küresel Ekonomik Krizinin İmalat Sanayi Sektörüne Etkilerinin Finansal Oranlar ile İncelenmesi. Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(3), 41.
• Kaya Bahçe, S. A. & Memiş, E. (2013). Estimating The Impact of the 2008–09 Economic Crisis on Work Time in Turkey. Feminist Economics, 19(3), 181-207.
• Kazgan, G. (2009). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Krizler (1929-2009) “Ekonomi Politik” Açısından Bir İrdeleme. İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Kepenek, Y. (2017). Türkiye Ekonomisi (30. Basım). Remzi Kitabevi, İstanbul.
• Kesimli, I. G. & Günay, S. G. (2011). The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Working Capital of Real Sector in Turkey. Business Economic Horizons, 4(1), 52-69.
• Lacina, L. & Vavřina, J. (2014). Economic Crisis in EU: Impact on Greek and Irish Enterprises According Its Size and Sector. Procedia Economics and Finance, 12, 353-362.
• Llaudes, R., Salman, F. & Chivakul, M. (2010). The Impact of the Great Eecession on Emerging Markets. IMF Working Paper, (WP/10/237).
• Lozza, E., Bonanomi, A., Castiglioni, C. & Bosio, A. C. (2016). Consumer Sentiment After the Global Financial Crisis. International Journal of Market Research, 58(5), 671-691.
• Lyubov, T. & Heshmati, A. (2019). Impact of Financial Crises on the Dynamics of Capital Structure: Evidence from Korean Listed Companies. The Singapore Economic Review, 1950049.
• Martinez, M. G., Zouaghi, F., Marco, T. G. & Robinson, C. (2019). What Drives Business Failure? Exploring the Role of Internal and External Knowledge Capabilities During the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Business Research, 98, 441-449
• Mishkin, F. S. (1992). Anatomy of a Financial Crisis. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2(2), 115-130.
• Moseley, F. (1997). The Rate of Profit and the Future of Capitalism. Review of Radical Political Economics, 29(4), 23-41.
• OECD. (2009). OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report. OECD Publishing. March 2009.
• Ötker-Robe, I. & Podpiera, A. M. (2013). The Social Impact of Financial Crises: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (6703).
• Plotnikov, V. & Vertakova, J. (2014). Manufacturing Industry in Russia: Problems, Status, Prospects. Procedia Economics and Finance, 14, 499-506.
• Radelet, S. & Sachs, J. (1998). The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis (No. w6680). National bureau of economic research.
• Rath, B. N. (2018). Productivity Growth and Efficiency Change: Comparing Manufacturing-And Service-Based Firms in India. Economic Modelling, 70, 447-457.
• Resmi Gazete (2009). Bakanlar Kurulu Kararı, Sayı: 27171.
• Salman, A. K. & Yazdanfar, D. (2012). Profitability in Swedish Micro-Firms: a quantile regression approach. International Business Research, 5(8).
• Sancak, E. & Demirbaş, E. (2011). Küresel Ekonomik Kriz ve Türkiye Konut Sektörüne Etkileri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(3), 171-190.
• Sangalli, I. (2013). Inventory Investment and Financial Constraints in the Italian Manufacturing Industry: A Panel Data GMM Approach. Research in Economics, 67(2), 157-178.
• Sen, A. (2009). Capitalism Beyond the Crisis. The New York Review of Books, 56(5).
• Stata. (2022). Forecast-Econometric Model Forecasting. 21.11.2022 tarihinde https://www.stata.com/manuals/tsforecast.pdf#tsforecastRemarksandexamples adresinden erişildi.
• Stata. (2023). Forecast-Econometric Model Forecasting. 11.04.2023 tarihinde https://www.stata.com/manuals13/tsforecast.pdf adresinden erişildi.
• Terzi, N. (2010). Global Financial Crisis and the Effects of its on Turkish Economy. In 6th. International Scienific Conference, Business and Management, Mayıs 2010.
• TÜİK. (2016). Ulusal Hesaplar, İktisadi Faaliyet Kollarına Göre Cari Fiyatlarla Yıllık Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (NACE Rev.2), 28.02.2023 tarihinde https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulusal-hesaplar-113&dil=1 adresinden erişildi.
• Valverde, M., Tregaskis, O. & Brewster, C. (2000). Labor Flexibility and Firm Performance. International Advances in Economic Research, 6(4).
• Xie, X. M., Zang, Z. P. & Qi, G. Y. (2016). Assessing the Environmental Management Efficiency of Manufacturing Sectors: Evidence from Emerging Economies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 112, 1422-1431.
• Yıldırım, O. (2020). Bankacılık Sistemindeki Gelişmeler ve Türkiye’de Bankacılık Sistemi. Uluslararası Finansal Ekonomi ve Bankacılık Uygulamaları Dergisi, 1(2), 63-77.
• Zeitun, R., Temimi, A. & Mimouni, K. (2017). Do Financial Crises Alter the Dynamics of Corporate Capital Structure? Evidence from GCC Countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 63, 21-33.
• Zhang, M. (2018). Sectoral Risk Research About Input–Output Structure of the United States. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 491, 199-208.
• Zouaghi, F. & Sánchez, M. (2016). Has the Global Financial Crisis Had Different Effects on Innovation Performance in the Agri-Food Sector by Comparison to the Rest of the Economy?. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 50, 230-242.
• Zouaghi, F., Sánchez, M. & Martínez, M. G. (2018). Did the Global Financial Crisis Impact Firms' Innovation Performance? The Role of Internal and External Knowledge Capabilities in High and Low Tech Industries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 132, 92-104.