IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA

Emre Bulut; Eda Fendoğlu; Ahmed İhsan Şimşek

doi:10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506

TR EN

Bitcoin, Geleneksel Finansal Varlıklara Karşı Güvenli Liman Mı? Japonya ve Çin Finansal Piyasalarından Kanıtlar

Öz

Birkaç yılda bir tekrarlanan küresel ve yerel finansal krizler, olası çöküşlerden zarar görmeyecek veya bu süreci en az zararla atlatmaya yardımcı olacak ve güvenli liman özelliklerine sahip alternatif yatırım araçlarının belirlenmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymuştur. Bitcoin, kullanıcılar arası bir ağ zinciri üzerine kurulu, bu zincirde yapılan tüm işlemlerin kaydedildiği halka açık bir dijital para birimidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, özellikle Bitcoin'in farklı yatırım araçlarına karşı güvenli olduğu Çin ve Japonya'daki finansal piyasalar için, varyans açısından doğrusal olmayan GARCH, ortalamada GARCH (GARCH-M), GJR-GARCH ve Dinamik Koşullu Korelasyon GARCH (DCC-GARCH) doğrusal olmayan otoregresif modelleri kullanmaktır. Bitcoin, altın, yerel para birimi paritesi ile ABD Doları'nın günlük fiyatlarını üç potansiyel güvenli liman varlığı ve Çin ve Japonya'nın borsa endeksleri olarak değerlendiriyoruz. 1 Ocak 2015'ten 3 Kasım 2022'ye kadar günlük sıklıkta veri topluyoruz. Çalışmanın sonuçları, Japonya ve Çin arasındaki piyasa dinamiklerini incelemiştir. Çin'deki SSE50 endeksinin diğer araçlara göre finansal şoklara daha fazla tepki verdiği, altın ve ABD dolarının ise her iki ülke için finansal şoklara karşı en güvenli alternatifler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bitcoin, Japonya'da olumsuz haberlerden en çok etkilenen araçtır, ancak yatırımcılar onu Çin için altından sonra güvenli liman olarak görmektedir. Risk ve getiri ilişkisi incelendiğinde, Çin'de risk arttıkça BTC/CNY ve GOLD/CNY'den beklenen getiri beklentisinin de arttığı söylenebilir. Ancak, SSE50 Endeksi ve USD/CNY döviz kuru arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı düzeyde risk ve getiri arasında beklenen ilişkinin olmadığı görülmektedir. Japonya için, NIKKEI225 Endeksi, BTC/JPY ve GOLD/JPY araçları için risk ve getiri arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ancak, USD/JPY döviz paritesinde risk ve getiri arasındaki beklenen ilişki istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin, Finansal Şoklar, Risk-Getiri Ilişkisi, Finansal Piyasalar, GARCH Modelleri

Proje Numarası

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IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA

Öz

The global and local financial crises, which are repeated every few years, have made it necessary to identify alternative investment instruments that will not be harmed by possible collapses or that will help to overcome this process with the least damage, and that have the characteristics of a safe harbor. Bitcoin is a public digital currency built on a user-to-user network chain, where all transactions made on this chain are recorded. The aim of this study is to use the nonlinear autoregressive models GARCH, GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M), GJR-GARCH, and Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) which are nonlinear in variance, in particular for financial markets in China and Japan, where Bitcoin is safe against different investment instruments. We consider daily prices of Bitcoin, gold, USA Dollar with local currency parity as three potential safe haven assets and the stock market indices of China and Japan. We collect data on daily frequency from January 1, 2015, to November 3, 2022. The results of the study examined the market dynamics between Japan and China. It was found that the SSE50 index in China responds to financial shocks more than other instruments, while gold and USD are the safest alternatives against financial shocks for both countries. Bitcoin is the instrument most affected by negative news in Japan, but investors see it as a safe haven after gold for China. When the risk and return relationship is examined, it can be argued that as the risk increases in China, the expected return from BTC/CNY and GOLD/CNY also increases. However, it is seen that the SSE50 Index and the USD/CNY exchange rate do not have the expected relationship between risk and return at a statistically significant level. For Japan, it has been determined that there is a statistically significant and positive relationship between risk and return for the NIKKEI225 Index, BTC/JPY and GOLD/JPY instruments. However, the expected relationship between risk and return in USD/JPY currency parity is not statistically significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin, Financial Shocks, Risk-Return Relationship, Financial Markets, GARCH Models

Proje Numarası

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Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler, Finansal Ekonometri

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Emre Bulut
0000-0002-2884-1405
Türkiye

Eda Fendoğlu ^*
0000-0003-4092-7137
Türkiye

Ahmed İhsan Şimşek
0000-0002-2900-3032
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

29 Haziran 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

10 Şubat 2026

Kabul Tarihi

18 Haziran 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA25KA95HS

APA

Bulut, E., Fendoğlu, E., & Şimşek, A. İ. (2026). IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA. Fırat Üniversitesi Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 45-74. https://doi.org/10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506

AMA

1.Bulut E, Fendoğlu E, Şimşek Aİ. IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA. fuuiibfdergi. 2026;10(1):45-74. doi:10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506

Chicago

Bulut, Emre, Eda Fendoğlu, ve Ahmed İhsan Şimşek. 2026. “IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA”. Fırat Üniversitesi Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 10 (1): 45-74. https://doi.org/10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506.

EndNote

Bulut E, Fendoğlu E, Şimşek Aİ (01 Haziran 2026) IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA. Fırat Üniversitesi Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 10 1 45–74.

IEEE

[1]E. Bulut, E. Fendoğlu, ve A. İ. Şimşek, “IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA”, fuuiibfdergi, c. 10, sy 1, ss. 45–74, Haz. 2026, doi: 10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506.

ISNAD

Bulut, Emre - Fendoğlu, Eda - Şimşek, Ahmed İhsan. “IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA”. Fırat Üniversitesi Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 10/1 (01 Haziran 2026): 45-74. https://doi.org/10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506.

JAMA

1.Bulut E, Fendoğlu E, Şimşek Aİ. IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA. fuuiibfdergi. 2026;10:45–74.

MLA

Bulut, Emre, vd. “IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA”. Fırat Üniversitesi Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, c. 10, sy 1, Haziran 2026, ss. 45-74, doi:10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506.

Vancouver

1.Emre Bulut, Eda Fendoğlu, Ahmed İhsan Şimşek. IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA. fuuiibfdergi. 01 Haziran 2026;10(1):45-74. doi:10.61524/fuuiibfdergi.1886506

Bitcoin, Geleneksel Finansal Varlıklara Karşı Güvenli Liman Mı? Japonya ve Çin Finansal Piyasalarından Kanıtlar

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Proje Numarası

IS BITCOIN SAFE HAVEN AGAINST TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL ASSETS? EVIDENCE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM JAPAN AND CHINA

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Proje Numarası

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

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Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

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