Orta Asya Göç Akımı'na Yerçekimi Kanunu Yaklaşımı

Öz

Afghanistan, Tacikistan, Azerbaycan, Özbekistan ve Pakistan)Türkiye ve Rusya’yı koridor ülke olarak kullanılarak Avrupa’ya giden uluslararası göç stoğunu istatistiksel olarak Newton’un Yerçekimi Kanunu modelini uluslararası göçe uygulamayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışma,uluslararası göçü 1990 ve 2013 yılları arasındaki onar yıllık periodlar şeklinde incelemektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı tarihi olayları açıklamak ya da Orta Asya devletleriyle Türkiye ve Rusyanın ikili ilişkilerini incelemek değildir. Çalışmanın amacı, Yer Çekimi Kanunun önerdiği değişkenlere ek olarak eklenmiş kukla değişkenlerle Orta Asya’dan Avrupa’ya giden göçe yön veren parametreleri açıklamaktır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, varılan ülkenin nüfusu ve toprak genişliği, ülkeler arasındaki uzaklık, Gayrisafi Milli hasılalar arasındaki farklılık, ve tarihsel ve kültürel olarak Sovyetler Birliğine olan bağlılığın uluslararası göç stoğuna Türkiye ve Rusya’nın seçiliminde yön verdiği ve etkilediğini ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Çalışma yerçekimi kanunu uluslarası göç üzerinden bu bölgeye ilk kez uygulaması bakımından özgündür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yerçekimi Kanunu,Orta Asya,Türkiye,Rusya,Koridor Ülke,Göç

Gravity Approach Applied to Central Asian Migration Flow

Öz

This essay attempts to discuss empirical results on determinants of international migration stock from the perspective of destination countries, Turkey and Russia, and applies the gravity model of migration to statistically test the migration stock from Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan) for ten years periods between 1990 and 2013. This paper does not aim to describe historical events or bilateral relations between the Central Asian States with Turkey and Russia. The findings of the study unveil that area and population of the destination country, the distance between countries, difference in GDP, historical and cultural ties with the Soviet Union influence migration stock in Turkey and Russia.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gravity Approach,Central Asia,Turkey,Russia,Corridor Country,Migration

Kaynakça

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