Bir Savaşın Ganimetleri: Gürcistan-Rusya Savaşı’nın Yakın Çevre’de Rus Dış ve Güvenlik Politikaları Üzerine Etkisi 

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 11, 35 - 64, 01.03.2012

Güner Özkan

Öz

Prior to the war in Georgia in August 2008, Russia’s efforts to maintain and strengthen its influence in the ‘near abroad’ had been challenged by its competitors. Hence, the war in Georgia over South Ossetia came just in a right moment for Russian leadership to strongly reassert the presence of Russia’s exclusive interests in the ‘near abroad’. In this study, the war in Georgia is treated as an event not being a total game-changer but an event capable of having important geopolitical implications in the ‘near abroad’. Thus, the article argues that Russia’s reaction to Georgia aimed to carry out what it had already been doing politically and economically, now in a heightened alert with multifarious tools to enhance Russian national interests in the ‘near abroad’. Despite harsh criticism and some measures taken particularly by the US and the EU, Russia has largely succeeded in taking the ‘near abroad’ back into its influence. Russia has been doing this through a number of methods showing the very bases of Russia’s pre-Georgian war realism. After identifying Russian conception of ‘near abroad’ before the War, the study will delve into four policy areas through which Russia’s geopolitical re-claim in the same region is thought to be best identified: Russia curbing the US and the EU, Collective Security Treaty Organization for deepening security space, Shanghai Cooperation Organization for widening security space and energy pipelines for making Russia ‘great’ again. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia, Near Abroad, War in Georgia, Foreign Policy, Security 

Spoils of a War: Impact of Georgia-Russia War on Russian Foreign and Security Policies in the ‘Near Abroad’

Öz

Gürcistan’da Ağustos 2008’de yaşanan savaştan önce Rusya’ya karşı bir çok rakibi, Moskova’nın ‘yakın çevre’de etkisini koruma ve güçlendirme çabalarına karşı meydan okudu. Bu anlamda, Rusya için Güney Osetya üzerine Gürcistan’daki savaş, aynı aktörün ‘yakın çevre’de özel çıkarlarının olduğunu güçlü şekilde tekrar belirtme anlamında tam zamanında ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada Gürcistan’daki savaş, ‘yakın çevre’de total olarak ‘oyunu’ değiştirecek bir gelişmeden ziyade, önemli jeopolitik sonuçlara yol açabilen bir olay olarak ele alınmıştır. Dolayısıyla çalışma, Gürcistan’a yönelik reaksiyonuyla Rusya’nın, önceden zaten ‘yakın çevre’de siyasi ve ekonomik olarak ulusal çıkarlarını arttırma çabalarını, şimdi daha fazla araçla ve daha dikkatli biçimde sürdürme amacı taşıdığını ileri sürmektedir. Özellikle ABD ve AB’nin kendisine karşı sert eleştirilerine ve aldıkları bazı önlemlere rağmen, Rusya ‘yakın çevre’yi tekrar kendi etki alanına çekmeyi başarmıştır. Rusya bunu, Gürcistan savaşı öncesi izlediği realist tutumunun temel özelliklerini taşıyan bir çok metodu bugün de kullanarak sürdürmektedir. Rusya’nın savaş öncesi ‘yakın çevre’ konseptini açıkladıktan sonra çalışma, aynı aktörün yine aynı bölge üzerinde jeopolitik iddilarını tekrar gerçekleştirme çabasını en etkin biçimde açıkladığı düşünülen; ABD ve AB’yi kısıtlayan Rusya, güvenlik alanını derinleştirmek için Ortak Güvenlik Antlaşması Teşkilatı, güvenlik alanını genişletmek için Şangay İşbirliği Örgütü ve Rusya’yı tekrar ‘büyük’ yapmak için enerji boru hatları konularını ele almaktadır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Yakın Çevre, Gürcistan’da Savaş, Dış Politika, Güvenlik 

Kaynakça

• Active Engagement, Modern Defence: Strategic Concept for the Defence and Security of the Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Adopted by Heads of State and Government at the NATO Summit in Lisbon 19-20 November 2010, http://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/pdf/ Strat_Concept_web_en.pdf.
• BLAGOV Sergei, “Russia: Trying to Put the Obama Administration on Defensive”, Eurasia Insight, 04 February 2009, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/ insightb/articles/eav020409e.shtml.
• “BP Statistical Review of World Energy”, June 2008, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/ bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/ local_assets/downloads/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdf.
• “Burjanadze Meets Putin in Moscow”, Civil Georgia, 04 March 2010, http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=22052.
• Caucasus Elections Watch: A Weekly Review of Elections Related Processes in the Caucasus Region, 9 October 2012, http://caucasuselections.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/election-watch_21_email-f.pdf.
• “Central Asia: Russia and United States Intensify Energy Competition”, Eurasia Insight, 05 September 2008, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/ articles/eav090508a.shtml.
• “Cheney to Rally U.S. Allies in Russia’s Backyard”, Reuters, 02 September 2008, http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/09/02/us-georgia-ossetia-idUSL272497420080902.
• Chicago Summit Declaration, Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Chicago on 20 May 2012, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-D6A5053B-72C00533/natolive/ official_texts_87593.htm.
• Country Profile, Russia, 2008, The Economic Intelligence Unit, 2008.
• Country Profile, Russia, 2007, The Economic Intelligence Unit, 2007.
• Country Profile, Russia, 1996-97, The Economic Intelligence Unit, 1997.
• Country Profile, Russia, 1999-2000, The Economic Intelligence Unit, 1999.
• “CSTO Military Exercises to Develop Joint Organizational Skills”, Armenpress, Armenian News Agency, 15 September 2012, http://armenpress.am/eng/ news/693290/cstomilitary-exercises-to-develop-joint-organizationalskills-anatoly-timoshenkov.html.
• “CSTO Military Maneuvers Kick Off in Kazakhstan”, RFE/RL, 17 September 2009, http://www.rferl.org/content/CSTO_Military_Maneuvers_Kick_Off_In_Kazakhstan/1824913.html.
• “CSTO Rapid-Reaction Forces End Exercises In Tajikistan”, RFE/RL, 27 April 2010, http://www.rferl.org/content/CSTO_RapidReaction_Forces_End_ Exercises_In_Tajikistan/2026156.html.
• Declaration of the Moscow Session of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Moscow, 05 September 2008, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 09 September 2008, http://www.ln.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/39AE7686F5EA1126C32574C20032F125.
• “Declaration on Establishment of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation”, 15 June 2001, Shanghai, http://www.sectsco.org/html/00088.html.
• “Dushanbe Declaration of Heads of SCO Member States”, Dushanbe, 28 August 2008, http://www.sectsco.org/news_detail.asp?id=2352&LanguageID=2.
• “EU’s Eastern Partnership Program not against Moscow”, Ria Novosti, 28 April 2009, http://en15.rian.ru/russia/20090428/121350475.html.
• “Ex-PM Nogaideli Signs Cooperation Treaty with Russia’s Ruling Party”, Civil Georgia, 09 February 2010, http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=21964.
• “Foreign Policy Conception of the Russian Federation (1993)”, Andrei Melville and Tatiana Shakleina (Ed.), Russian Foreign Policy in Transition: Concepts and Realities, New York, Central European University Press, 2005.
• “Gazprom Harms Russian Interests, Ukraine Refuses To Compromise”, Interview with Former Russian Deputy Energy Minister Vladimir Milov, RFE/RL, 08 January 2009, http://www.rferl.org/content/Interview_Gazprom_Harms_Russian_Interests_/1367968.html.
• “In Tbilisi, Cheney Affirms U.S. Support, Condemns Russia”, RFE/RL, 04 September 2008, http://www.rferl.org/content/Cheney_In_Georgia_To_Show_US_Support/1196264.html.
• “Ivanishvili on Foreign Policy, Territorial Integrity”, Civil Georgia, 21 October 2011, http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=24061.
• “Ivanishvili’s First-Ever TV Interview”, Civil Georgia, 17 October 2011, http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=24039.
• “Interview: analyst Says Uzbekistan’s Suspension Shows CSTO Is ‘Irrelevant”, RFE/RL, 29 June 2012, http://www.rferl.org/content/interview-analyst-says-uzbekistan-suspensionshows-csto-irrelevant/24629921.html.
• JACKSON Nicole J., “The Role of External Factors in Advancing Non-liberal Democratic Forms of Political Rule: A Case Study of Russia’s Influence on Central Asian Regimes,” Contemporary Politics, Vol.16, No.1, March 2010, pp. 101-118.
• KARIMOV Daniyar, “Kyrgyz Backtracking: Putin Brings Atambayev back in the Beginning of 2009”, 24.kg News Agency, 29 December 2010, http://eng.24.kg/cis/2010/12/29/15627.html.
• “Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses”, International Crisis Group, Policy Briefing, No. 102, April 27, 2010, www.crisisgroup.org.
• “Kyrgyzstan Asks for Russian Peacekeepers as Violence Goes On”, RIA Novosti, 12 June 2010, http://en.rian.ru/news/20100612/159400063.html.
• “Leaked Cables: Two Views on U.S.-Georgia Military Cooperation”, Civil Georgia, 03 December 2010, http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=22921.
• Lisbon Summit Declaration, Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Lisbon on 20 November 2010, Press Release, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2010_11/2010_11_11DE1DB9B73C4F9BBFB52B2C94722EAC_ PR_CP_2010_0155_ENG-Summit_LISBON.pdf.
• LOBJAKAS Ahto, “EU Fights for Nabucco’s Future”, RFE/RL, 05 November 2008, http://www.rferl.org/content/EU_Fights_For_Nabuccos_Future/1338540.html.
• MACHLEDER Josh, “Contextual and Legislative Analysis of the Russian Law on NGOs”, INDEM Foundation, Moscow, 16 March 2006.
• MCDERMOTT Roger N., “The Rising Dragon: SCO Peace Mission 2007”, Occasional Paper, The Jamestown Foundation, October 2007, www.jamestown.org.
• MEDETSKY Anatoly, “War Casts Cloud Over Pipeline Route”, The Moscow Times, 14 August 2008, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1009/ 42/ 369783.html.
• NAJIBULLAH Farangis, “Moscow Seeking Alliances in Energy-Rich Central Asia”, RFE/RL, 04 September 2008, http://www.rferl.org/content/Moscow_ Seeking_Alliances_in_EnergyRich_Central_Asia_/1196365.html.
• “National Security Conception of the Russian Federation (2000)”, Andrei Melville and Tatiana Shakleina (Ed.), Russian Foreign Policy in Transition: Concepts and Realities, New York, Central European University Press, 2005.
• National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020, Security Council, Russian Federation, No.537, 12 May 2009, http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/99.html.
• “NATO Secretary General confirms Alliance support for Georgia”, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, 01 October 2010, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_66580.htm;
• “NATO Tells Georgia Keep Up Reform Momentum”, Civil Georgia, 09 November 2011, http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=24121.
• OLIKER Olga et. al., Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications, RAND Corporation, 2009, http://www.rand.org.
• PANNIER Bruce, “Multiple Pipelines, but No Happiness, at EU-Russia Summit”, RFE/RL, 21 May 2009, http://www.rferl.org/content/Multiple_Pipelines_But_No_Happiness_At_EURussia_Summit/1736349.html.
• PANNIER Bruce, “Russia-Georgia Conflict Raises Concerns about Caspian Energy Exports”, RFE/RL, 13 August 2008, http://www.rferl.org/content/Conflict_Raises_Concerns_About_Caspian_Energy_Exports/1190774.html.
• Presidency Conclusions, No. 12594/08, Council of the European Union, Brussels, 01 September 2008.
• President of Russia, Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, 16 May 2003, http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2003/05/16/0000_type70029type82912_44692.shtml.
• President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin, Moscow, 05 November 2008, http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/11/05/2144_type70029type82917type127286_208836.shtml.
• President Vladimir Putin, Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 26 May 2004, http://www.mid.ru/Brp_4.nsf/arh/2E998AB77466FAC7C3256EC9001C93BE?OpenDocument.
• President Vladimir Putin, Transcript of the Press Conference for the Russian and Foreign Media, 31 January 2006, the Kremlin, Moscow, http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2006/01/31/0953_type82915type82917_100901.shtml.
• “Putin, Russia and the West: War”, BBC, 2012, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51592s0H5JQ.
• “Russia and Ukraine Say Gas Deal Reached’, RFE/RL, 18 January 2009, http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_And_Ukraine_Say_Gas_Deal_Reached/1371486.html.
• “Russia Grants Ukraine Gas Discount in Return For Fleet Lease Extension”, RFE/RL, April 21, 2010, http://www.rferl.org/content/Russian_Ukrainian_Leaders_Meet_On_Gas_Deal/2019642.html.
• “Russia: Moscow Offers to Peddle Cheap Arms to Neighbors”, Eurasia News Briefs, 08 May 2009, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/news/articles/eav050809c.shtml.
• “Russian-Led CSTO Grouping Adds Military Dimension”, RFE/RL, 04 February 2009, http://www.rferl.org/content/Rapid_Reaction_Force_Adds_Military_Dimension_To_CSTO/1379324.html.
• “Russian Security Chief Alleges NGOs Cover for Spies,” US Today, 5 December 2005, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-05-12-russia-ngos_x. htm?csp=34.
• “Russia Signs Deal to Prolong Troop Presence at Tajik Military Base”, RFE/RL, 05 October 2012, http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-signs-deal-troop-presence-tajikistanmilitary-base/24730251.html.
• “Russia to Keep Kyrgyzstan Military Base, Forgive Debt”, Defense News, 20 September 2012, http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120920/DEFREG03/309200007/RussiaKeep-Kyrgyzstan-Military-Base-Forgive-Debt.
• “Russia to Spend $50 Billion Buying Arms in 2009”, RFE/RL, 16 October 2008, http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_To_Spend_50_Billion_Buying_Arms_In_2009/1330511.html.
• Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, “A Conversation with Russia”, Brussels Forum 2009, Brussels, 2009, http://brussels.gmfus.org/archives/ 2009-2/transcripts/.
• “Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism”, 15 June 2001, Shanghai, http://www.sectsco.org/html/00093.html.
• SHANKER Thom and KULISH Nicholas, “Russia Lashes Out on Missile Deal”, The New York Times, 15 August 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/world/europe/16poland.html?_r=1&hp.
• Strasbourg / Kehl Summit Declaration, Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Strasbourg/Kehl, Press Release (2009), 04 April 2009, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_52837.htm?mode=pressrelease.
• TRENIN Andrei and TRENIN Dmitri, “The Wider Implications Of The Russian-Armenian Defense Deal”, RFE/RL, 24 August 2010, http://www.rferl.org/content/The_Wider_Implications_Of_The_RussianArmenian_Defense_Deal/2136480.html.
• TYMCHUK Dmitri, “Eastern Partnership Close to Expiration Date?”, Ria Novosti, 14 October 2011, http://en.ria.ru/international_affairs/20111014/167681676.html.
• “U.S. Warship in Russian-patrolled Georgian Port”, Reuters, 05 September 2008, http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/09/05/us-georgia-ossetia-poti-idUSL561032420080905.
• “Uzbekistan Suspends Membership in CSTO”, RFE/RL, 28 June 2012, http://www.rferl.org/content/uzbekistan-csto-suspends-membership/24629244.html.
• VAISSE Justin and KUNDNANI Hans, “European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2012”, the European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2012, http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_SCORECARD_2012_WEB.pdf.