Hybrid ANFIS-Taguchi Method Based on PCA for Blood Bank Demand Forecasting

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 225 - 233, 31.07.2020

Seda Hatice Gökler Semra Boran

https://doi.org/10.17671/gazibtd.580530

Cited By: 1

Öz

Blood is a vital product that is needed by thousands of people every day due to diseases, surgeries or injuries. For this reason, it is necessary that the blood banks have enough blood quantity to meet the blood needs of hospitals . The provision of small amounts of blood in hospitals creates significant problems such as loss of life and can’t meet the demand. On the other hand, the stocking of large amounts of blood leads to the wastage of blood and the stockless of blood different hospitals.
The aim of this study is to determine the criteria affecting blood demand and to forecast the blood demand by the machine learning algorithm Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. However, since the number of impact criteria is high, principal component analysis (PCA) method has been used in order to decrease criteria and eliminate the dependencies between the criteria. In addition, the performance of ANFIS depend on determining ANFIS parameters that affect its structure and learning. So to provide the highest learning ANFIS parameters were determined by the Taguchi experimental design method. The developed hybrid method was applied in a regional blood center and evaluated with correlation coefficient (𝑅). At the end of the application, it is seen that the estimated red blood cells demand is similar to the demand amount realized at the rate of 88.1%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ANFIS, PCA, taguchi method, demand forecasting

PCA Esaslı Hibrit ANFIS-Taguchi Yöntemi ile Kan Bankası için Talep Tahmini

Öz

Kan; hastalıklar, ameliyatlar veya yaralanmalar nedeniyle her gün binlerce insan tarafından ihtiyaç duyulan hayati bir üründür. Bu nedenle hastanelerin kan ihtiyacını karşılayan kan bankalarının stoklarında yeterli miktarda kan bulundurması gereklidir. Gereğinden az miktarda kan elde bulundurulması ihtiyacın karşılanamaması ve can kaybı gibi önemli sorunlar oluştururken, fazla miktarda kanın stoklanması ise kanın bozulmasına ve kan ihtiyacı olan farklı hastanelerin stoksuz kalmasına neden olmaktadır.
Bu çalışmada öncelikle kan bileşenlerinden biri olan eritrosit süspansiyonu talebine etki eden kriterler belirlenerek; bu kriterlere göre makine öğrenme algoritmalarından uyarlamalı ağ tabanlı bulanık çıkarım sistemi (ANFIS) yöntemi ile talebin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Ancak talebe etki eden çok sayıda kriter olduğu için gruplandırarak azaltmak ve kriterler arasındaki bağımlılıkları ortadan kaldırmak amacıyla temel bileşen analizi (PCA) yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Ayrıca ANFIS’in performansı; modelin yapısı ve öğrenmesini etkileyen parametre değerlerinin doğru belirlenmesi ile ilişkili olduğundan en yüksek doğrulukla tahmini sağlayacak değerler Taguchi deney tasarımı yöntemiyle belirlenmiştir. Geliştirilen PCA esaslı hibrit ANFIS-Taguchi yöntemi bir bölge kan merkezinde uygulanmıştır. Korelasyon katsayısı (𝑅) performans ölçütü ile yöntemin tahmin yeteneği değerlendirilmiştir. Uygulama sonunda tahmin edilen eritrosit süspansiyon talep miktarının %88.1 oranla gerçekleşen talep miktarı ile benzer sonuç verdiği görülmüştür. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

ANFIS, PCA, Taguchi metodu, talep tahmini

Kaynakça

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