Şirket İflaslarının Tahminlenmesinde Karar Ağacı Algoritmalarının Karşılaştırmalı Başarım Analizi

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 0 - , 01.01.2015

Aytuğ Onan

https://doi.org/10.17671/btd.36087

Cited By: 8

Öz

Bu çalışmada, önemli bir ekonomik problem olan, şirket iflaslarının tahminlenmesi ele alınmıştır. Bunun için iki yüz kırk farklı şirkete ilişkin finansal özellikleri içeren bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. Değinilen veri seti, sınıflandırma ve tahminlemede kullanılan önemli yöntemlerden biri olan karar ağacı yöntemine ilişkin yedi farklı algoritma ile uygulanarak, doğru sınıflandırma yüzdesi, ortalama mutlak hata, ortalama karesel hatanın karekökü, kesinlik, geri çağırma, F-ölçütü gibi ölçütler bakımından değerlendirilmiştir. Deneysel sonuçlar incelendiğinde, karar ağacı algoritmalarının şirket iflaslarının tahminlenmesi için uygun bir yöntem olduğu ve kısmen başarılı doğru sınıflandırma yüzdesi elde ettiği gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

tahminleme, karar ağacı algoritmaları, sınıflandırma, şirket iflasları

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