TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ

Öz

Barajların taşkın dalgasıyla üstten aşılması tarihte en sık rastlanan baraj göçme nedenlerinden birisidir. Bu çalışmada, Tanyeri Barajı’nın üstten aşılma güvenilirliği olasılık yöntemlerle değerlendirilmiştir. Bu amaçla Monte Carlo benzeşimiyle iki değişkenli taşkın hidrografları ile taşkın öncesindeki hazne su seviyeleri rastgele olarak üretilmiş ve maksimum taşkın dalgası seviyesinin barajın kret seviyesini geçme olasılığı elde edilmiştir. Ele alınan çeşitli senaryolarda dolusavağın ve dipsavağın çalışmadığı durum dahi göz önüne alınmış ve çeşitli değerlendirilmelerde bulunulmuştur. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Tanyeri Barajı’nın dolusavağı çalışırken 10000 yıllık tekerrür süresine sahip olası taşkınlarda bile üstten aşılma olasılığının bulunmadığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca taşkın anındaki maksimum hazne su seviyesinin taşkın öncesindeki hazne su seviyesine doğrudan bağlı olduğu gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• taşkın,barajlar; üstten aşma; güvenilirlik; Monte Carlo benzeşimi

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