Yardım malzemesi dağıtım operasyonlarının simülasyon ile analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, olası bir deprem sonrası kısa vadede gerçekleştirilen, yardım malzemesi dağıtım operasyonlarında merkezi ve yerel kaynakların eş-zamanlı kullanımının analiz edilmesi amacıyla bir simülasyon modeli geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen simülasyon modelinin senaryolarını üretmek amacıyla Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Jeoloji Araştırmaları Kurumu’nun veri tabanında yer alan önemli depremlere ilişkin bilgiler dikkate alınmıştır. Depremin büyüklüğü, derinliği ve afetzedelerin merkez üssüne olan uzaklıklarına bağlı olarak bir yapay sinir ağı aracılığıyla deprem şiddeti tahmin edilmiştir. Söz konusu deprem şiddeti ile ilişkili olarak etkilenen nüfus oranı ile afet seviyesi belirlenmektedir. Bu iki parametreye ek olarak, önceden konumlandırılan Geçici-Afet-Müdahale tesisi sayıları da bir diğer senaryo parametresi olarak dikkate alınmıştır. Simülasyon modeli ise kendi içerisinde global ve lokal olmak üzere iki alt bileşenden oluşmakta ve global bileşende merkezi kaynakların afet bölgesine gelişleri modellenirken, lokal bileşende ise afet bölgesinde yürütülen yardım malzemesi dağıtım operasyonları ele alınmaktadır. Simülasyon modeli kullanılarak, merkezi kuruluşların yardım malzemesi dağıtım faaliyetleri ile eş-zamanlı olarak, bu kuruluşlar afet bölgesine ulaşıncaya kadar geçen süreçte Geçici-Afet-Müdahale tesislerindeki envanter seviyelerinin kontrolü gerçekleştirilmektedir. Önerilen simülasyon modeli oluşturulan senaryolar altında çalıştırılmış ve elde edilen sonuçlar çeşitli performans parametreleri açısından analiz edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Afet operasyonları yönetimi,insani lojistik,yardım malzemesi dağıtımı,yapay sinir ağları,simülasyon

Öz

In this study, we develop a simulation model to analyze the simultaneous usage of both local and global resources in relief supplies distribution operations. In order to generate the scenarios of the simulation model, we use the significant earthquakes archive of the United States Geological Survey. We estimate earthquake intensity using the magnitude, depth and distance to the epicenter of an earthquake via an artificial neural network. In relation to estimated earthquake intensity, we determine the affected population rate and the disaster level. In addition to these two parameters, the number of pre-positioned Temporary-Disaster-Response facilities is presented as another scenario parameter. Our simulation model includes two main components as global and local, where we model the arrivals of the resources of central humanitarian organizations and local relief supplies distribution operations in the global and local components, respectively. Using the simulation model, inventory levels of Temporary-Disaster-Response facilities are controlled simultaneously with the relief supplies distribution operations of central humanitarian organizations. Proposed simulation model is run with the scenarios generated and the results are analyzed in terms of some performance measures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Disaster operations management,humanitarian logistics,relief supplies distribution,artificial neural networks,simulation

Kaynakça

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