Climate Change Impact Assessment in Residential Buildings utilizing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Projections

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 35 Sayı: 3, 1665 - 1684, 07.04.2020

Cagla Meral Akgül İpek Gürsel Dino

https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.534970

Cited By: 4

Öz

The building industry, especially residential
buildings, is a high priority area in climate change due to its large share of
CO₂ emissions, significant energy saving potentials and the
increased comfort expectations of building occupants. This paper presents the
simulation-based results of the climate change impact assessment for a typical
multi-storey residential building in Istanbul. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections
that are defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
representing low / medium and high CO₂ emission projections, were
selected and hourly climate data for each projection were generated for 2060.
In building simulations, three different cooling scenarios were developed,
representing different occupancy profiles, from natural ventilation to air
conditioning. The selected building performance metrics were building heating /
cooling energy consumption, building CO₂ emissions and occupant
thermal comfort. According to the simulation results, global warming in the
future will have a strong effect on cooling energy consumption and / or user
comfort in buildings. The results of the study point to the necessity of the
development of adaptive strategies against climate change in the future and the
importance of decarbonization in electricity generation to mitigate the effects
of climate change. The results of the analyses presented in this article will
also serve as a basis for future studies on retrofit studies for climate
change.

Anahtar Kelimeler

climate change, residential buildings, building energy consumption, occupant thermal comfort

RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 iklim senaryolarına göre konutlarda iklim değişikliği etki değerlendirmesi

Öz

Bina sektörü ve özellikle konut binaları, CO₂
salımlarındaki büyük payları, önemli enerji tasarrufu potansiyelleri ve kullanıcılarının
artan konfor beklentileri nedeniyle iklim değişikliğinde yüksek öncelikli bir
alandır. Bu makale, İstanbul ilinde çok katlı tipik bir konut binası için iklim
değişikliği etki değerlendirmesinin simülasyon temelli sonuçlarını sunmaktadır.
Hükümetlerarası İklim Değişikliği Panelinin
belirlediği, düşük/orta ve yüksek CO₂ salımı olasılıklarını temsil
eden RCP 4.5 ve RCP 8.5 projeksiyonları seçilmiş ve 2060 yılı için bu iki senaryoya
ait saatlik iklim verileri oluşturulmuştur. Bina simülasyonlarında, doğal havalandırılmadan klimaya kadar farklı bina kullanımı
profillerini temsil eden üç farklı soğutma senaryosu geliştirilmiştir. İncelenen
bina performans metrikleri, bina ısıtma/soğutma enerji tüketimi, bina CO₂
salımı ile kullanıcı ısıl konforu olarak seçilmiştir. Simülasyon sonuçlarına
göre gelecekte öngörülen sıcaklık artışının, binalarda soğutma enerjisi
tüketimi ve/veya kullanıcı konforu üzerinde güçlü bir etkiye sahip olacağını
göstermektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar, gelecekte binaların iklim
değişikliğine adaptasyonuna yönelik tedbirlerin alınması gerekliliğine ve elektrik
üretiminde dekarbonizasyonun iklim değişikliğinin etkilerinin azaltılmasındaki önemine
işaret etmektedir. Bu makalede sunulan analiz sonuçları, iklim değişikliği için
retrofit çalışmaları konusunda gelecekteki çalışmalara da temel oluşturacaktır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

iklim değişikliği, konut binaları, bina enerji tüketimi, kullanıcı ısıl konforu

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