Sürdürülebilir enerji yönetimi için yapay sinir ağları ve ARIMA metotları kullanılarak melez tahmin modelinin tasarlanması ve geliştirilmesi: Tütün endüstrisinde vaka çalışması

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 35 Sayı: 3, 1129 - 1140, 07.04.2020

Hamdi Giray Reşat

https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.591248

Cited By: 6

Öz

Çalışma kapsamında enerji yönetim
sistemlerinde önemli bir yere sahip olan kısa vadeli enerji tahminleme
süreçleri için ARIMA ve yapay sinir ağları kullanılarak geliştirilen melez bir
tahmin modeli ortaya konulmuştur. Bu model kapsamında tütün endüstrisinde
üretim yapan bir firmadan elde edilen gerçek hayat verisi ile uygulama
çalışmaları yapılarak sistemin güvenilirliği test edilmiştir. ARIMA yönteminden
elde edilen sonuçlar doğrultusunda elektrik tüketimini etkileyen faktörlerden
bazıları göz önüne alınarak yapay sinir ağı modeline girdi verisi olarak eklenmiştir.
Ele alınan veri setlerinde güneş enerjisi üretimi, çalışma saatleri, üretim
miktarları ve geçmiş elektrik tüketim verileri arasındaki korelasyona bakılarak,
çeşitli nöron sayıları ve farklı eğitim algoritmaları denenerek planlaması
yapılmak istenilen şirket için en uygun sistemin tasarlanması yapılmıştır. Elde
edilen bilgiler ışığında geliştirilen melez tahmin modeli, sadece ARIMA modeli
ile yapılan tahmin verilerine göre %39,9’lik bir iyileştirme sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yapay sinir ağları, enerji, tahminleme

Kaynakça

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