Belirsizlik Etmenli Dinamik Bir Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Modeli

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 29 Sayı: 1, 0 - , 27.03.2014

Özkan Bali

https://doi.org/10.17341/gummfd.14956

Öz

Genellikle, çok kriterli karar verme (ÇKKV) yöntemleri alternatiflerin değerlendirmesini belirli bir zaman periyodunda veya şimdiki zaman periyodunda ele almaktadır. Ancak bazı ÇKKV problemlerinde alternatiflerin mevcut durumdaki performansı kadar geçmişe yönelik performanslarının da dikkate alınması gerekmektedir. Diğer yandan ÇKKV’nin doğasında kriterlerin yapısından veya karar vericilerin değerlendirmesinden kaynaklanan belirsizlik vardır. Bu sebeple, bu çalışmanın amacı alternatiflerin farklı zaman periyotlarında değerlendirmesine imkân sağlayan belirsizlik etmenli dinamik bir ÇKKV modeli geliştirmektir. Modelde
alternatiflerin değerlendirilmesindeki belirsizliği ifade etmek için insan düşünme sistemine daha yakın olarak tanımlanan sezgisel bulanık küme (SBK) teorisi kullanılmaktadır. Önerilen modelde sezgisel bulanık sayılarla gösterilen dilsel değişkenler karar vericilere değerlendirme kolaylığı sağlamaktadır. Alternatiflerin değerlendirilmesi sonucunda ortaya çıkan sezgisel bulanıklığın durulaştırılması maksadıyla gri ilişki analizinden (GİA) yararlanılmaktadır. GİA, alternatiflerin sıralanmasında ve seçiminde kullanılan etkili bir değerlendirme yöntemidir. Çalışmada, önerilen dinamik ÇKKV modelinin uygulanabilirliğini ve etkinliğini göstermek
maksadıyla bir örnek uygulama sunulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sezgisel bulanık küme teorisi, gri ilişki analizi, dinamik karar verme, çok kriterli karar verme

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