Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization between EU and Mediterranean Countries on Turkish Agricultural Trade: An Armington Model

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 1, 153 - 172, 24.04.2018

Volkan Bektaş H. Ozan Eruygur

Öz

Free trade
agreements (FTAs) have become popular in recent years. One of these agreements
is Barcelona Agreement (EUROMED), signed between European Union (EU) and 12
Mediterranean partner countries (MPC), including Turkey. Accordingly,
association agreements have been signed between EU and MPC. However, these
agreements have not completely included agricultural trade yet. The aim of this
paper is to analyze the potential trade creation and trade diversion impacts of
agricultural trade liberalization between the EU and MPCs on Turkey’s
agricultural trade by using Armington trade model. Contrary to the traditional
trade model, goods are not homogeneous in Armington Model. Trade data of 209
agricultural goods classified at 4 digit level harmonize system (HS-4) were
used in the present analysis. The global trade of Turkey was disaggregated into
28 regions to distinguish the regional impacts. All Mediterranean partner
countries, including Turkey, were explicitly included. The structure of the
model assumes perfectly elastic export supplies for imports and perfectly
elastic import demands for exports, and hence the model simulates the maximum
possible changes in the imports and export for each goods. Results show that
Turkey’s agricultural export will increase 
4,1 %, while agricultural import will increase  9,7 %.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Barcelona Declaration, Armington model, fixed effect, random effect, agricultural trade.

AB-Akdeniz Ülkeleri Arasındaki Tarımsal Ticaretin Serbestleştirilmesinin Türk Tarım Sektörü Dış Ticaretine Etkileri: Bir Armington Modeli

Öz

Son yıllarda GATT’ın XXIV. Maddesi
kapsamında tercihli ticaret anlaşmaları yaygınlaşmaktadır. Bu anlaşmalardan
biri de Avrupa Birliği (AB) ile Türkiye’nin de dâhil olduğu 12 Akdeniz Ülkesi
arasında 1995 yılında imzalanan Barselona Anlaşması’dır (EUROMED). Barselona
Anlaşması kapsamında AB ve Akdeniz Partner Ülkeleri (APÜ) arasında ortaklık
anlaşmaları yapılmaktadır. Ancak bu anlaşmalar, tarımsal ürün ticaretini henüz tam
olarak kapsamamaktadır. AB ve APÜ arasında yapılmakta olan serbest ticaret
anlaşmalarının tarım ürünlerini de kapsamasının önemli etkileri olacağı
kaçınılmazdır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı AB ile APÜ arasında tarım ürünlerinde
serbest ticaret anlaşmasının Türkiye’nin tarımsal ürün ticareti üzerindeki
potansiyel ticaret yaratıcı ve ticaret saptırıcı etkilerini Armington modeli
kullanarak analiz etmektir. Armington modelinde, geleneksel ticaret
modellerinin aksine ticarete konu olan malların heterojen olduğu
varsayılmıştır. Çalışmada 4 haneli harmonize sisteme (HS-4) göre
sınıflandırılmış 209 tarımsal ürünün dış ticaret verileri kullanılmıştır.
Bölgesel etkileri analiz edebilmek için Türkiye’nin tüm dış ticareti 28 bölgeye
ayrılmıştır. Tüm Akdeniz ülkeleri modele ayrı ayrı dâhil edilmiştir. Modelde
ithalat için ticaret ortaklarının arz esnekliklerinin, ihracat için ise ticaret
ortaklarının talep esnekliklerinin tam olduğu varsayılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre
Türkiye’nin ihracatının % 4,1; ithalatının % 9,7 artması beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Barselona Anlaşması, Armington Modeli, Sabit Etkiler, Rassal Etkiler

Kaynakça

• Alessandri, P. (2000) “European and Euro - Mediterranean Agreements: same simulation analysis on the effects of the EU Trade Policy” KITeS Working Papers, No 110.
• Augier, P. and Gasiorek, M. (2003) “The welfare implications of trade liberalization between the Southern Mediterranean and the EU” Applied Economics, vol. 35 (10), pages 1171-1190.
• Alston, J.M., Carter, C.A., Green, R. and Pick, D. (1990) “Whither Armington trade models?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 72 (2), pages 455 - 467.
• Armington, P.S. (1969) “A Theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production” Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund, Vol.16, No. 1, 159 - 178.
• Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, John Wiley& Sons.
• Burfisher, M.E. and Jones, E.A, (1998) “The Economics of Regional Integration” In Burfisher, M.E. and Jones, E.A. (Eds.), Regional Trade Agreements and U.S. Agriculture. Economic Research Services, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Economic Report No. 771, Washington, D.C.
• COMTRADE (2015) “World Integrated Trade Solutions” http://wits.worldbank.org/ WITS/WITS/Default-A.aspx?Page=Default (12.10.2015).
• Eruygur, H.O. (2008) “Tarımda AB Ortak Dış Tarifesi ve Türkiye: Üçüncü Ülkelerle Dış Ticaret Etkileri” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 23 (265), 17 - 33.
• Eruygur, H.O. (2013) “Agricultural Trade Liberalization between the EU and Mediterranean Partner Countries: An Impact Analysis” Paper presented at the EY International Congress on Economics I, Ankara.
• Ethier, W. J, (1998) “The new regionalism” The Economic Journal, vol. 108 (449), pages 1149 - 1161.
• Garcia-Alvarez - Coque, J. M. and Martí - Selva, M.L., (2006) “A Gravity Approach to Assess the Effects of Association Agreements on Euro Mediterranean Trade of Fruits and vegetables” MPRA Paper 4124, University Library of Munich,
• Green, W.H. (2012). Econometric Analysis, Seventh Edition, Pearson.
• Hagemejer, J. and Cieslik, A. (2009) “Assessing the impact of the EU-Sponsored trade liberalization in the MENA countries” MPRA Paper. No: 17721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Hausman, J. A. (1978) “Specification tests in Econometrics” Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 1251 - 1271.
• Hickman, B.G. and Lau, L.J. (1973) “Elasticities of substitution and export demands in a world trade model” European Economic Review, Vol.4, 347 - 380.
• Kahouli, B. And Maktouf, S. (2014) “Trade creation and diversion effects in the Mediterranean Area: econometric analysis by Gravity Model” The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development: An International and Comparative Review. Volume 24, Issue 1.
• Kavallari, A., Rau, M.L. and Rutten, M. (2013) “Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus On Agriculture and Food. Regional impact analysis” JRC - IPTS Working Papers, JRC84800, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
• Larson, D.F., Martin, W., Sahin, S. and Tsigas, M. (2014) “Agricultural policies and trade paths in Turkey” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, No 7059.
• Peridy, N. (2005) “Toward a Pan-Arab Free Trade Area: assessing trade potential effects of the Agadir Agreement” The Developing Economies, XLIII-3, 329-425.
• Robles M.D.P., I. Martínez - Zarzoso and C. S. Burguet (2012) “The impact of FTAS on MENA” Trade Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers, Number: 217
• Ruiz, J. M. and Vilarrubia, J. M. (2007) “The wise use of dummies in Gravity Models: export potentials in The Euro-Med Region” Bank of Spain Working Paper, No. 0720, Madrid
• Shiells C. R, and Reinert K. A., (1993) “Armington Models and terms of trade effects: some econometrics evidence for North America” Canadian Journal of Economics, 26, 299-316.
• Winters, L. A. (1984) “Separability and the specification of foreign trade functions” Journal of International Economics, 17, 239 - 263.