TÜRKİYE'DEKİ TRAFİK KAZALARININ PERİYODİK YAPISININ ARAŞTIRILMASI

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de 2019 yılında meydana gelen günlük trafik kazaları verilerine zaman serisi analizi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan verilerin en önemli özelliği kolluk birimleri tarafından günlük olarak tutulan resmi trafik kazası kayıtları olmasıdır. Bu verilerle ilgili olarak en uygun zaman serisi modeli belirlenmiş ve trafik kazalarında periyodik bileşenlerin olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Verilerin birinci dereceden entegre olduğu görülmektedir. Bu durumda serinin birinci dereceden farkı istatistiksel sonuç açısından alınmıştır. Serinin grafikleri incelendiğinde, serilerde olası periyodikliğin bulunabileceği varsayımı ile Akdi ve Dickey (1998) tarafından önerilen periodogram temelli birim kök testi ile serinin durağanlığı da test edilmiş ve serinin % 10 anlamlılık düzeyinde durağan olduğu görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre 2019 yılında günlük trafik kaza sayılarında 33, 36.5 ve 73 günlük dönemlerin önemli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. 73 günlük sürenin Ramazan Bayramı ile Kurban Bayramı arasındaki döneme denk geldiği (iki dini bayram arasında 70 günlük bir ara vardır) gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Zaman Serisi Analizi
• Günlük Trafik Kazaları
• Dönemsellik

INVESTIGATING THE PERIODIC STRUCTURE OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN TURKEY

Öz

In this study, a time-series analysis is applied to the daily accidents between the periods January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2019 of Turkey. The most important feature of the data used in the study is the official daily traffic accident records kept by the law enforcement units. Regarding these data, the most appropriate time series model is determined and it is examined whether there are periodic components in traffic accidents or not. It is observed that the data is first-order integrated. In this case, the difference of the series from the first order should be taken in terms of statistical conclusion. When the graphs of the series are examined, the stationarity of the series has been also tested with the periodogram-based unit root test proposed by Akdi and Dickey (1998) with the assumption that possible periodicity can be found in the series, and it has been observed that the series is stationary at the 10% significance level. According to the results 33, 36.5 and 73-day periods are significant in the number of daily traffic accidents in 2019. It has been demonstrated that the 73-day period corresponds to the period between Ramadan Feast and Feast of Sacrifice (there is a 70-day interval between the two religious holidays).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Time Series Analysis
• Daily Traffic Accidents
• Periodicity
• Turkey

Kaynakça

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