UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION STATUS, PRICES AND CRIME RELATIONSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Öz

In this study, the events related to official crime that have taken place in Turkey between 2005:01 and 2011:12, in monthly frequency, are tried to be explained. The effects of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment (UNE) disaggregated by level of education on to the number of crimes were discussed. It has been observed that there is no long-run relationship among the number of crimes, Consumer Price Index and total unemployment when they are considered together. However, we observe a bivariate cointegration between the number of crimes and the total unemployment. Then, the analysis was repeated with the total number of unemployed status arranged in eight different levels of education. It has been observed that the level of education is an important factor determining the number of committed crimes. In the study; the long-term relationship has been tested with Engle-Granger (1987) and Johansen cointegration methods. Another finding of the analysis is that the seasonality has significant effects on the results. For this reason, seasonal dummies were added as exogenously to the models. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Long-Run Relationship,Cointegration,Crime Economics,Security

EĞİTİM DÜZEYİNE GÖRE İŞSİZLİK, FİYATLAR VE SUÇ İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye aylık 2005: 01 ve 2011: 12 dönemi veri seti ile resmi suç olayları açıklanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) ve eğitim düzeyine göre İşsiz (UNE) sayılarının suç sayıları üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Suç sayısı, Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi ve Toplam İşsizlik arasında uzun dönem ilişki bulunamamıştır. Hâlbuki suç sayısı ve toplam işsizlik arasında ikili kointegrasyon ilişkisi gözlenmiştir. Daha sonra analiz sekiz farklı eğitim düzeyine göre ayrıştırılmış işsizlik rakamlarıyla tekrarlanmıştır. Eğitim düzeyinin işlenen suç sayısını açıklarken önemli bir değişken olduğu gözlenmiştir. Uzun dönem ilişki Engle-Granger (1987) ve Johansen kointegrasyon yöntemleriyle ele alınmıştır. Çalışmadaki bir diğer bulgu mevsimselliğin sonuçlar üzerindeki anlamlı etkileridir. Bu sebeple modele dışsal olarak mevsimsel kukla değişkenleri ilave edilmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uzun Dönem İlişki,Kointegrasyon,Suç Ekonomisi,Güvenlik

Kaynakça

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