HARMONIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TERROR EVENTS IN TURKEY: PERIODICITIES AND FORECASTING

Öz

In the study, the number of terrorist incidents occurred during 2001/01-2012/11 periods in Turkey's Southeast region are studied. Since Southeast region has the highest number of terrorist incidents in Turkey, Southeast region is selected. The data used in the study is obtained by special permission from official institutions. In this study, the periodicities observed during the period are examined and it is tried to obtain a meaningful predictive model by using harmonic regression and classical time series techniques. Harmonic regression and classical time series techniques have been shown to give better predictions in the application of periodic series. According to the results, predictions obtained by harmonic regression model are closer to the real values. However, it is determined that the acts of terrorism in Turkey show an increase in every 72 months-6 years period, and the observed periodicities are interpreted. So, it is important not to allow terrorist organizations to recover in the fight against terrorism. Considering such periodicities, it is important to share the results with the relevant units dealing with terrorism globally.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Harmonic Regression,Periodicities,Time Series,Terror Events

TÜRKİYE’DE TERÖR OLAYLARININ HARMONİK REGRESYON ANALİZİ: PERİYODİKLİKLER VE ÖNGÖRÜ

Öz

Çalışmada, Türkiye'nin Güneydoğu bölgesindeki 2001/01-2012/11 dönemlerinde meydana gelen terör olaylarının sayısı incelenmiştir. Çalışma için Türkiye'de terör olaylarının yoğun olarak yaşandığı Güneydoğu Anadolu bölgesi seçilmiştir. Araştırmada kullanılan veriler resmi kurumlardan özel izinlerle alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada, dönem boyunca gözlenen periyodiklikler incelenerek harmonik regresyon ve klasik zaman serisi teknikleri kullanılarak anlamlı bir öngörü modeli elde edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Harmonik regresyon ve klasik zaman serileri tekniklerinin periyodik serilerin uygulanmasında daha iyi tahminler verdiği gösterilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, harmonik regresyon modeliyle elde edilen tahminler gerçek değerlere yakındır. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye'de terör eylemlerinin her 72 ayda (6 yıl) bir artış gösterdiği tespit edilmiş ve gözlemlenen süreklilikler yorumlanmıştır. Bu nedenle, terör örgütlerinin terörle mücadelede toparlanmalarına izin vermemek önemlidir. Bu periyodiklikleri göz önünde bulundurarak, sonuçları dünya çapında terörle ilgili birimlerle paylaşmak önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Harmonik Regresyon,Periyodiklik,Zaman Serileri,Terör Olayları

Kaynakça

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