STATE FRAGILITY AND POST-CONFLICT STATE-BUILDING: AN ANALYSIS OF SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT (2013-2019)

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 125 - 146, 12.05.2020

Billy Agwanda Uğur Yasin Asal

https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.736103

Cited By: 3

Öz

The South Sudan conflict flared up in 2013 hardly two years after successful secession from Sudan. This autonomy was achieved after more than two decades of intense fighting between the tribes from the north and south regions of Sudan. However, the path to creating a new united and modern state has been challenging for South Sudan. This article explores post-conflict reconstruction for Africa’s newest state through an in-depth analysis of the conflict narratives, peace processes, humanitarian crisis and the challenges of state-building for South Sudan. The article argues that the challenge to the establishment of a strong and stable South Sudanese state is because of the fragile social, political and economic status that the country inherited at independence. This article also identifies that ethnicity has been exploited by the different political actors in the conflict to achieve personal and group interests leading to outbreak of one of the most intense conflicts not only within Africa, but also globally.

Anahtar Kelimeler

South Sudan, Ethnicity, Civil War, Fragile State, State-Building

DEVLET KIRILGANLIĞI VE ÇATIŞMA SONRASI DEVLET İNŞASI: GÜNEY SUDAN ÇATIŞMASININ ANALİZİ (2013-2019)

Öz

Güney Sudan çatışması, 2013 yılından itibaren, bölgenin Sudan’dan başarılı bir şekilde ayrılmasından yaklaşık iki yıl sonra, yükselişe geçmiştir. Güney Sudan’ın bu özerkliği, Sudan’ın güney ve kuzey bölgelerinde yer alan yerel grupların yirmi yılı aşkın bir süredir devam eden yoğun çatışmaları sonrası sağlanmıştır. Ancak, Güney Sudan için yeni, birleşik ve modern bir devlet inşası halen önemli sorunları bünyesinde taşımaktadır. Bu makalede, Afrika’nın en yeni devletinin çatışma sonrası yeniden inşa süreci; insani krizler, barış süreçleri ve Güney Sudan’ın devlet inşası sürecinde karşılaştığı temel problemler ekseninde, derinlemesine analiz edilmektedir. Makalede, güçlü ve istikrarlı bir Güney Sudan’ın kurulmasının önündeki en önemli engeller olarak bağımsızlık sürecinden miras kalan kırılgan toplum yapısı, istikrarsız ekonomik ve siyasi yapı ifade edilmektedir. Makalede etnisite kavramı, sadece Afrika’da değil küresel eksende de en yoğun çatışmalardan biri olan Güney Sudan’da, farklı siyasal grupların bireysel ve kolektif çıkarların gerçekleştirilmesi amacıyla istismar edilmiş bir araç olarak tanımlanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güney Sudan, Etnisite, İç Savaş, Kırılgan Devlet, Devlet İnşası

Kaynakça

• ACLEDP (2018). (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) South Sudan Analysis Available from https://www.acleddata.com/dashboard/#728
• Adams, K. R. (2000). State Survival and State Death: International and Technological Contexts. Ph.D. dissertation. University of California, Berkeley
• Africa Research Bulletin, (2015). South Sudan: Fragile Peace Agreement. Afr Res Bull Polit, 52: 20663A-20666C. doi:10.1111/j.1467-825X.2015.06533.x
• African Union Report, (2014). Final Report of the African Union Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan,” Addis Ababa 15 October 2014 Available from http://www.au.int/en/auciss [Accessed on 23 November 2018]
• Ahmed H. A. (2018). Why is Omar al-Bashir mediating South Sudan peace talks? 5 Jul 2018 Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/omar-al-bashir-mediating-south-sudan-peace-talks-180705134746432.html
• Baker, A. (2016) “War Crimes: Slaughter and Starvation Haunt a Broken South Sudan.” Time, 187 (20): pp. 20-27
• Knopf, Katherine Almquist (2016). Ending South Sudan’s civil war. Vol. 77. Council on Foreign Relations, 2016.
• Ballentine, K. and Nitzschke, H. (2005). "The political economy of civil war and conflict transformation." Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management, Berlin. Available from http://www.berghof-handbook.net/articles/BHDS3_ BallentineNitzschke230305.Pdf
• Bariyo, N. (2014). “South Sudan’s Debt Rises as Oil Ebbs,” Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2014 Available from < https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-sudans-debt-rises-as-oil-ebbs-1407280169>
• Blackings, M. J. (2016). Why Peace Fails: The Case of South Sudan’s Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Nairobi
• Born, G. B. and Ravivn, A. (2017). The Abyei Arbitration and the Rule of Law. Harvard International Law Journal / Vol. 58 Number 1, Winter pp. 177 -224
• Canadian Department of Justice, (2014). Armed Conflicts Report -Sudan. Available from file:///V|/vll/country/armed_conflict_report/Sudan.htm
• Cheeseman, N. (2015). Democracy in Africa: Successes, failures, and the struggle for political reform. Vol. 9. Cambridge University Press.
• Checchi, F., Testa, A., Warsame., A. Quach, L., & Burns, R. (2013).‘Estimates of crisis-attributable mortality in South Sudan’, December 2013- April 2018: A statistical analysis, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
• Chol, Agereb Leek (2011). 20 years Apology: A Political Campaign for Dr. Riek Machar Teny- a Case of “Why Garang Must Go Now” is now recanted. Available from https://paanluelwel2011.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/dr-riek-political-apology.pdf
• De Soysa, I. (2002). "Paradise is a bazaar? Greed, creed, and governance in civil war, 1989-99." Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 4: pp. 395-416.
• De Vries, L. and Schomerus M. (2017). "South Sudan's Civil War Will Not End with a Peace Deal." Peace Review 29, no. 3 (2017): pp. 333-340.
• Doyle, M. W. and Sambanis N.(2017). "International peacebuilding: A theoretical and quantitative analysis." American political science review 94, no. 4: pp.779-801.
• Fearon, J. D. and David D. L. (2003)."Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war." American political science review 97, no. 1: pp. 75-90.
• FEWSN (Famine Early Warning Systems Network) (2016). “Food Security Outlook Update: Staple Food Prices Increasing More Rapidly Than Expected,” 16 April 2016 Available from http://fews.net/east-Africa/south-Sudan/food-security-outlook-update/April-2018
• Foreign Policy (2015). U.S. Threatens South Sudan With Sanctions … Again. 24 February 2015 Available from https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/24/u-s-threatens-south-sudan-with-sanctions-again/
• Glowacki, Luke, and Wrangham Richard 2015. "Warfare and reproductive success in a tribal population." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 2: pp. 348-353.
• Hannah W., Jok M. Jok and Ronak P. (2018). The militarization of cattle raiding in South Sudan: how a traditional practice became a tool for political violence. Journal of International Humanitarian Action 3:2 https://doi.org/10.1186/s41018-018-0030
• Janssen J. (2017). South Sudan: Why Power-Sharing did not Lead to Political Stability. (MA. Thesis) University of Leiden
• Johnson, D. H. (2014). The Political Crisis in South Sudan. African Studies Review, 57 no. 3 pp 167-174 doi:10.1017/asr.2014.97
• Johnson, Douglas H. and Matthews Robert O. 2005. "The Root Causes of Sudan's Civil Wars." International Journal 60, no. 2: pp. 608.
• Jok, Jok Madut 2015. The Paradox of Peace in Sudan and South Sudan: Why Political Settlements Failed to Endure. Inclusive Political Settlements Articles 15, September. Berlin: Bergh of Foundation.
• Kiranda, Y., Kamp, M., Mugisha, M. B., & Ojok, D. 2016. Conflict and State Formation in South Sudan: The Logic of Oil Revenues in Influencing the Dynamics of Elite Bargains. Journal on Perspectives of African Democracy and Development, 1 no. 1 pp. 30 -407
• Krasner, Stephen D. 1999. Sovereignty: organized hypocrisy. Princeton University Press.
• Martell P. 2016. “South Sudan Is Dying, and Nobody Is Counting,” March 10, News24 France. Available from https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/south-sudan-is-dying-and-nobody-is-counting-20160311-4
• Mercy Corps 2018. Quick facts: What you need to know about the South Sudan crisis. February 2018. Available from https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/south-sudan/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-south-sudan-crisis
• O'Brien, Adam 2009. Shots in the dark: The 2008 South Sudan civilian disarmament campaign. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.
• OHCHR 2013. (U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights), “Pillay Urges South Sudan Leadership to Curb Alarming Violence Against Civilians,” December 24, Available From https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan-republic/pillay-urges-south-sudan-leadership-curb-alarming-violence-against
• Ottaway, Marina, and El-Sadany Mai 2012. Sudan: From conflict to conflict. Vol. 8. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
• Overseas Security Advisory Council, “South Sudan 2017 Crime & Safety Report,” Bureau of Diplomatic Security, US Department of State, May 2017
• Oxfam GB, Christian Aid, CAFOD and Trócaire in Partnership, and Tearfund, “Missed Out: The role of local actors in the humanitarian response in the South Sudan conflict,” Oxfam, April 2016, https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/rr-missed-out-humanitarian-response-south-sudan-280416-en.pdf.
• Pinaud, Clemence 2014."South Sudan: Civil war, predation and the making of a military aristocracy." African Affairs 113, no. 451: 192-211.
• Pierson, C. (2012). The modern state. Routledge.
• Reuters 2014. South Sudan oil state capital divided, says government. February 20 Available from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-unrest/south-sudan-oil-state-capital-divided-says-government-idUSBREA1J0DK20140220
• Reuters 2018 U.N. Security council imposes an arms embargo on South Sudan. July 20 Available from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-unrest-un/u-n-security-council-imposes-an-arms-embargo-on-south-sudan-idUSKBN1K3257
• Reuters 2017, South Sudan needs $1.7 billion humanitarian aid in 2018. December21 Available from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southsudan-unrest/south-sudan-needs-1-7-billion-humanitarian-aid-in-2018-idUSKBN1E71BK
• Rolandsen, Øystein H. 2015. "Small and Far Between: Peacekeeping Economies in South Sudan." Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 9, no. 3: 353-371.
• Rolandsen, Øystein H., and Kindersley Nicki 2017. "South Sudan: A Political Economy Analysis." Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
• Rone, Jemera 1996. Behind the red line: political repression in Sudan. Vol. 3169, no. 159. Human Rights Watch.
• Ross, Michael 2002. Natural Resources and Civil War: An Overview with Some Policy Options. World Bank and the Agence Francaise de Developpement, Paris, December 9-10
• Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Warner, Andrew M. 2001. "The curse of natural resources." European economic review 45, no. 4-6: 827-838.
• Sefa-Nyarko, Clement 2016 "Civil War in South Sudan: Is It a Reflection of Historical Secessionist and Natural Resource Wars in “Greater Sudan”? African security 9, no. 3: 188-210.
• Sørbø, G. M. 2014. Return to war in South Sudan. Policy Brief. Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre [online]. Available at <www:http://noref.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/dfe9c9db13050b38a2a5c-3c072af1e.pdf> South Sudan News Agency, 2016 26 February
• Stedman S, John R, Donald S and Elizabeth M 2002. Ending civil wars: the implementation of peace agreements. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner
• “South Sudanese rioters attack aid groups in Maban,” Sudan Tribune, July 24, 2018, http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article65913.
• Sudan Tribune 2017. South Sudanese Pound loses further value against U.S. dollar. 13 April Available from http://www.sudantribune.com/ spip.php?article62178
• Sudan Tribune, 2016. IMF warns of further deteriorating economy in South Sudan. 3 June Available from http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article59164
• Taulbee, J., Kelleher, A. and Grosvenor, P., 2014. Norway’s peace policy: Soft power in a turbulent world. Palgrave Macmillan.
• The Star 2018. Salva Kiir, Riek Machar sign peace agreement in Khartoum. June 27 Available from https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/06/27/salva-kiir-riek-machar-sign-peace-agreement-in-khartoum_c1778869
• Thomson, J. E., & Krasner, S. D. 1989. Global transactions and the consolidation of sovereignty. Global changes and theoretical challenges, pp. 195-219.
• UN Security Council 2013. Security Council resolution 2132, South Sudan and Sudan, S/RES/2132, 24 December 2013
• UNDP, 2010. Leadership, trust and legitimacy in Southern Sudan’s transition after 2005. Article presented at the Capacity is development Conference, New York
• UNHCR, 2018. South Sudan Situation: UNHCR Regional Update https://reliefweb .int/report/south-sudan/south-sudan-situation-unhcr-regional-update-1-31-december-2017
• UNOCHA (U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), 2013. “South Sudan Crisis: Situation Report, 26 December Report Number 4.
• Waal, Alex D. 2014. "When kleptocracy becomes insolvent: Brute causes of the civil war in South Sudan." African Affairs 113, no. 452: 347-369.
• Walt, Stephen M. 1998. "International relations: one world, many theories." Foreign policy: 29-46.
• Warner, L A 2016. The Disintegration of the Military Integration Process in South Sudan (2006–2013) Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 5(1): 12, pp. 1–20,
• Wild, Hannah, Jok Madut Jok, and Patel Ronak 2018. "The militarization of cattle raiding in South Sudan: how a traditional practice became a tool for political violence." Journal of International Humanitarian Action 3, no. 1: 2.
• Young J. (2006). The South Sudan Defence Forces in the Wake of the Juba Declaration. The Small Arms Survey. Switzerland
• Young, J. (2016). Popular struggles and elite co-optation: the Nuer White Army in South Sudan’s Civil War. Small Arms Survey. Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.