DEMOKRASİ VE GÜVENLİK İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE (VARYANS ANALİZİNİN İŞARET ETTİĞİ SONUÇLAR)

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 227 - 258, 29.11.2024

Mahir Terzi

https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.1528885

Öz

Bu çalışma, demokrasi ve güvenlik parametreleri arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığını, demokrasi ülke kategorileri üzerinden ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla dört alt grubun ortalamaları karşılaştırılmaktadır. Bu dört alt grup; tam demokrasi, kusurlu demokrasi, hibrit rejim ve otoriter rejim alt gruplarıdır. Çalışmanın kavramsal çerçevesini demokrasi, güvenlik ve demokratik barış teorisi oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada çoklu grup ortalamalarının karşılaştırılabilmesi amacıyla bağımsız gruplar için tek yönlü varyans analizi (ANOVA) yapılmaktadır. ANOVA sonuçları grupların bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir fark olup olmadığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, demokratik ülkelerde yaşayan insanların çok daha güvenli bir çevrede yaşadığı önermesine sahiptir. Veriler suçun evrensel olduğunu ancak yüksek gelir düzeyi, refah, eğitim ve düşük nüfus yoğunluğunun suç üzerindeki olumlu etkilerine işaret etmektedir. Ancak bu makaledeki değerlendirmelerin hırsızlık, şiddet, rüşvet gibi güvenlik endeksine dahil edilen suçlar için geçerli olduğu unutulmamalıdır. 2018 ile 2022 yılları arasındaki verilere dayanan sonuçlar, demokratik barış teorisinin genişletilmiş önermelerinin ancak tam demokrasi için geçerli olabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demokrasi, Demokratik Barış Teorisi, Tam Demokrasi, Güvenlik, Varyans Analizi

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND SAFETY (RESULTS INDICATED BY VARIANCE ANALYSIS)

Öz

This study aims to acknowledge whether there is a relationship between democracy and safety parameters through democratic country categories. For this purpose, this study compares the averages of the four subgroups. These four subgroups are full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime, and authoritarian regime subgroups. The study's conceptual framework comprises democracy, safety, and democratic peace theory. In the study, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is performed for independent groups to compare multiple group averages. ANOVA results indicate whether there is a statistically significant difference between groups as a whole. The study proposes that people living in democratic countries live in a much safer environment. Data indicate that crime is universal and point out the positive effects of high-income level, prosperity, education and low population density on crime. However, it should be kept in mind that the evaluations in this paper are valid for crimes included in the safety index including theft, violence, bribery, and so on. The results, based on data between 2018 and 2022, reveal that the expanded propositions of democratic peace theory can only be valid for full democracy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

: Democracy, Democratic Peace Theory, Full Democracy, Safety, Variance Analysis

Kaynakça

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