Türkiye’de Dolarizasyonun para politikasının etkinliği üzerindeki etkisi: 2003:01-2021:06

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de dolarizasyonun para politikasının etkinliği üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Araştırma, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'nın beş misyonundan öncelikli ikisi olan fiyat istikrarı ve finansal istikrara odaklanmaktadır. Analiz 2003:01 - 2021:06 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Ek olarak, ekonometrik tahminlerde yöntem olarak doğrusal olmayan sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bu çerçevede dolarizasyondaki artış yönlü hareketler hem kısa vadede hem de uzun vadede, yüksek istatistiki anlamlılık düzeyinde, fiyat istikrarını bozmaktadır. Diğer yandan, dolarizasyondaki aşağı yönlü değişimlerin, fiyat istikrarını sağlamlaştırıcı ya da bozucu etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Analizden elde edilen bulgular, dolarizasyonun finansal istikrar üzerindeki etkilerinin biraz karmaşık olduğunu ve simetrik olmadığını göstermektedir. Ancak sonuçlar genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, dolarizasyonda meydana gelen hareketlerin, söz konusu hareketler ister artış yönünde isterse de düşüş yönünde olsun, finansal istikrara zarar verdiği söylenebilir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye’de para politikası yapıcıları, para politikalarının daha etkin olabilmesi ve arzu edilen sonuçlara ulaşılabilmesi için öncelikle dolarizasyonu azaltacak veya en azından sabitleyecek önlemler almalıdır. Çünkü çalışmada elde edilen genel sonuçlar açıkça göstermektedir ki, dolarizasyonun artması Türkiye ekonomisinde etkisiz para politikasına yol açmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• dolarizasyon
• fiyat istikrarı
• finansal istikrar

Impact of dollarization on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Republic of Türkiye: 2003:01-2021:06

Öz

The effects of dollarization on monetary policy efficiency in Türkiye have been investigated in this study. The investigation focuses on price stability and financial stability which are two primary missions of Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. The analysis covers the 2003:01 - 2021:06 period. And the econometric estimation method is Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach. Within this scope, positive movements in dollarization significantly disrupt price stability in both the short and long terms. On the other hand, we can say that downward changes in dollarization neither reinforce nor disrupt the price stability in the Turkish economy. The findings show that the effects of dollarization on financial stability are complicated and asymmetric. However, when the results are evaluated in general, it can be said that movements of dollarization in any direction damage financial stability. So, Turkish monetary policymakers should take measures to reduce or at least fix the dollarization for more efficiency in monetary policy. Because the overall results obtained in this study clearly show that increasing dollarization means ineffective monetary policy in the Turkish economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• dollarisation
• price stability
• financial stability

Kaynakça

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