The impact of terrorism on tourism in the Balkan countries

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 19 - 30, 28.02.2026

Rabia Efeoğlu

https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2026.12.1.002

https://izlik.org/JA47XJ49PP

Öz

The study aims to investigate the impact of terrorism on tourism in Balkan countries for the period 2013-2020. Tourism is the dependent variable and represented by the number of tourist arrivals and terrorism is the independent variable and represented by the global terrorism index. The lowest value of the global terrorism index is 0 and the highest value is 10. As the index decreases, terrorism decreases and as the index increases, terrorism increases. Economic growth and inflation rate are used as control variables and military expenditures are used in the analysis to examine the moderating effect. In this study, panel data method is used, first, unit and time effects are examined with F, LR and LM tests, then Hausman test is performed and estimation is performed with the random effects model. Heteroscedasticity problem was encountered in the model and the model was re-estimated with the Huber, Eicker and White Estimator. According to the estimation results, the effect of terrorism on tourism is positive and significant. As terrorism increases in Balkan countries, the number of tourist arrivals increases. On the other hand, the interaction indicator used to examine the moderating effect has a negative impact on tourism. In other words, in the case of military expenditures, the number of tourist arrivals decreases as terrorism increases in the Balkan countries. It is concluded that economic growth and inflation, which are used as control variables, increase tourism in Balkan countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

terrorism , tourism , Balkan countries

Balkan ülkelerinde terörizmin turizm üzerindeki etkisi

https://izlik.org/JA47XJ49PP

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, Balkan ülkelerinde 2013-2020 dönemi için terörizmin turizm üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Turizm bağımlı değişken olup gelen turist sayısıyla, terörizm bağımsız değişken olup küresel terörizm endeksi ile temsil edilmiştir. Küresel terörizm endeksinin en düşük değeri 0, en yüksek değeri 10’dur. Endeks düştükçe terörizm azalmakta, endeks yükseldikçe terörizm artmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon oranı kontrol değişken olarak, askeri harcamalar da moderatör etkiyi incelemek için analizlerde kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada panel veri yöntemi kullanılmış, ilk olarak birim ve zaman etkilerine F, LR ve LM testleri ile bakılmış, daha sonra Hausman testi yapılarak tesadüfi etkiler modeli ile tahmin gerçekleştirilmiştir. Modelde değişen varyans sorunu ile karşılaşılmış ve bu soruna karşı Huber, Eicker ve White Tahmincisi ile model yeniden tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre terörizmin turizm üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Balkan ülkelerinde terörizm arttıkça gelen turist sayısı artış göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan moderatör etkiyi incelemek için kullanılan etkileşim göstergesinin turizm üzerindeki etkisi negatiftir. Yani askeri harcamalar durumunda Balkan ülkelerinde terörizm arttıkça gelen turist sayısı azalmaktadır. Kontrol değişken olarak kullanılan ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyonun Balkan ülkelerinde turizmi artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

terörizm , turizm , Balkan ülkeleri

Kaynakça

• Acar, A. ve Çetin, G. (2017). Terör ve turizm arasındaki ekonomik ilişki. Journal of Recreation and Tourism Research, 4(Special Issue 1), 255-274.
• Ahlfeldt, G. M., Franke, B. ve Maennig, W. (2015). Terrorism and international tourism: The case of Germany. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 235(1), 3-21.
• Ajogbeje, K., Adeniyi, O. ve Folarin, O. (2017). The effect of terrorism on tourism development in Nigeria: A note. Tourism Economics, 23(8), 1673-1678. Doi: https://doi.org/ 10.1177/1354816617692477
• Aziz, A., Nawaz, M. A. ve Hanif, S. (2022). Effect of natural disasters and terrorism on tourism growth: Evidence from top ten tourist’s destination. IRASD Journal of Economics, 4(2), 375–393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.52131/joe.2022.0402.0086
• Baltagi, H. B. (2013). Econonometric analysis of panel data. USA: John Wiley and Sons.
• Bandyopadhyay, A., Rej, S., Mallick, M. A., Mahalik, M. K., Kumar, S. ve Vijayabaskar, M. (2024). Analyzing the impact of terrorism on tourism in Sri Lanka. Journal of Public Affairs, 24(2), 1-14. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2920
• Basu, K. ve Marg, V. S. (2013). Impact of political instability and terrorism in the tourism industry of three Middle-East countries: An Econometric exploration. International conference on tourism, transport & logistic, UP organizer and publication Co, France, 1-14.
• Başar, S., Künü, S. ve Hopoğlu, S. (2016). Terörün BRICS ve MINT ülkelerindeki turizm faaliyetleri üzerine etkisi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 618, 43-50.
• Bayar, Y. (2019). BRICS ülkeleri ile Türkiye’de terörizmin ekonomik belirleyicileri: Bir panel nedensellik analizi. Türk İdare Dergisi, 489, 69-86.
• Bayar, Y., Gavriletea, M. D. ve Remeikienė, R. (2023). Impact of the rule of law, corruption and terrorism on tourism: Empirical evidence from Mediterranean countries. Oeconomia Copernicana, 14(3), 1009–1035. Doi: https://doi.org/10.24136/oc.2023.02930
• Bayramoğlu, T., Durmaz, A. ve Arı, Y. O. (2015). Ekonomik açıdan terör ve turizm ilişkisi: Dünya örnekleri ve Türkiye örneği. Türkiye Klinikleri Forensic Medicine-Special Topics, 1(2), 25-34.
• Berce, R., Lacmanović, D. ve Raspor, A. (2022). Impact of terrorism on tourism demand in the EU and the Mediterranean. 6th International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era, 73-92. Doi: https://doi.org/10.31410/tmt.2021-2022.73
• Boojhawon, D. ve Seetanah, B. (2018). The impact of terrorism on tourism demand in Mauritius. Erişim, 30 Ekim 2024, https://wtochairs.org/sites/default/files/5%20paper%20terrorism%20and%20tourism.pdf
• Buigut, S. ve Amendah, D. D. (2016). Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya. Tourism Economics, 22(5), 928-938. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0467
• Buigut, S., Kapar, B. ve Braendle, U. (2021). Effect of regional terrorism events on Malaysian tourism demand. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 22(3), 271-283. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/14673584211021895
• Can Gaberli, Y., Gaberli, Ü. ve Güler, M. E. (2022). Impact of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism on tourism: A panel co-integration analysis. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(4), 387-400. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124
• Corbet, S., O’Connell, J. F., Efthymiou, M., Guiomard, C. ve Lucey, B. (2020). The impact of terrorism on European tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 75, 1-17.
• Çatalbaş Karpat, G. ve Yarar, Ö. (2015). Türkiye'deki bölgeler arası iç göçü etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri analizi ile belirlenmesi. Alphanumeric Journal, 3(1), 99-117. Doi: https://doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.1.5000113446
• Çelik, N. ve Karaçuka, M. (2017). Terör saldırılarının turizm sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye öznelinde ampirik bir analiz. Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(3), 313-322. Doi: https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.2017328399
• Deniz, T. ve Karadağ, D. (2018). Politik çatışmaların ve terörizmin turizm sektörüne etkileri: 2010-2017 Türkiye örneği. Doğu Coğrafya Dergisi, 23(40), 61-74.
• Drakos, K. ve Kutan, A. M. (2001). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: evidence from three Mediterranean countries. ZEI working paper, 26, 1-54.
• Drakos, K. ve Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), 621-641. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703258198
• Elitaş, B. L. ve Çeken, H. (2016). Terör olaylarının turizme etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 38(38), 347-360.
• Emsen, Ö. S. ve Değer, M. K. (2004). Turizm üzerine terörizmin etkileri: 1984-2001 Türkiye deneyimi. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(7), 67-83.
• Feridun, M. (2011). Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 43(24), 3349-3354. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036841003636268
• Institute for Economics and Peace, (2025, 11 Mart). Erişim adresi: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/public-release-data/
• Karaçuka, M. ve Çelik, N. (2014). Turizm talebinin terör olayları karşısındaki duyarlılığı: Türkiye örneği. VII. Lisansüstü Turizm Öğrencileri Araştırma Kongresi, 04-05 Nisan 2014, Kuşadası, Aydın, 282-296.
• Karagöz, M. (2008). The effect of terrorism on tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Erişim, 10 Mart 2025, http://www.dspace.epoka.edu.al/bitstream/handle/1/116/Pages%20from%20volume2-27.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
• Karamelikli, H., Khan, A. A. ve Karimi, M. S. (2019). Is terrorism a real threat to tourism development? Analysis of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(17), 2165-2181. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1681945
• Kaya, M. G., Onifade, S. T. ve Akpinar, A. (2022). Terrorism and tourism: An empirical exemplification of consequences of terrorist attacks on tourism revenues in Turkey. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 70(1), 28-42. Doi: https://doi.org/10.37741/t.70.1.2
• Koch, G. E. (2018). Analyzing the relationship between terrorism and tourism: An examination of Europe (Doctoral dissertation). Haverford College, USA.
• Koçal, S. ve Erkenekli, M. (2016). Terör suçları ile insani gelişmişlik düzeyi ve kültürel değerler arasındaki ilişki. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(1), 35-72.
• Korten, S. (2019). Terrorism and tourism: a time-series analysis for the case of Israel (Bachelor Thesis) Erasmus University Rotterdam Erasmus School of Economics, Rotterdam.
• Kumail, T., Ali, W., Sadiq, F. ve Khan, A. (2021). Nexus of terrorism and tourism: Empirical evidence from South Asian countries. Journal of Tourism Analysis Revista de Análisis Turístico (JTA), 28(1), 1-12.
• Laiginhas Pina, Â. S., Fuinhas, J. A., Serrasqueiro, Z. ve Belucio, M. (2023). How do economic growth and terrorism affect tourism in the council of Europe countries?. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 71(1), 58-76.
• Lamsoo, M. S., Ghaderi, J., Hosein Zehi, A. ve Askaripoor, H. (2023). Investigating the impact of terrorism on tourism in selected countries: Dynamic panel data approach. Economic Strategy, 11(43), 147-166.
• Lanouar, C. ve Goaied, M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models. Tourism Management, 70, 404-418. Doi: https://doi.org/10.37741/t.70.4.4
• Lutz, B. J. ve Lutz, J. M. (2018). Terrorism and tourism in the Caribbean: A regional analysis. Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression, 12(1), 55-71. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2018.1518337
• Mao, L. J. (2019). Impacts of terrorism in the United Kingdom and Europe on tourism in the United Kingdom. Advances in Applied Sociology, 9, 491-504. Doi: https://doi.org/10.4236/aasoci.2019.911036
• Masinde, B. K., Buigut, S. ve Mung’atu, J. K. (2016). Modelling the temporal effect of terrorism on tourism in Kenya. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(12), 10-20. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n12p10
• Masinde, B. ve Buigut, S. (2018). Effect of terrorism and travel warning on Kenyan tourism demand. Tourism Analysis, 23(2), 283-288. Doi: https://doi.org/10.3727/108354218X15210313771322
• Munir, S., Gamage, S. K. N., Hewage, K. N. ve ul Haq, I. (2022). Terrorism and tourism demand in terror affected island. CARC Research in Social Sciences, 1(2), 38–40. Doi: https://doi.org/10.58329/criss.v1i2.11
• Muslija, A., Ozbozkurt, O. B. ve Satrovic, E. (2018). On the relationship between tourism and political stability and absence of violence/terrorism. In 1st International Congress of Political, Economic and Financial Analysis-2018 (PEFA’18), April 26-28, 2018, Nazilli, Aydin, Turkey. 1151-1160.
• Nadeem, M. A., Liu, Z., Xu, Y., Nawaz, K., Malik, M. Y. ve Younis, A. (2020). Impacts of terrorism, governance structure, military expenditures and infrastructures upon tourism: Empirical evidence from an emerging economy. Eurasian Business Review, 10, 185-206. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-020-00152-y
• Özcan, C. C. ve Özmen, İ. (2016). Terör ve turizm ilişkisinin karşılaştırmalı bir analizi: AB ve MENA örneği. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 69-83.
• Parida, Y., Bhardwaj, P. ve Chowdhury, J. R. (2015). Impact of terrorism on tourism in India. Economics Bulletin, 35(4), 2543-2557.
• Polyzos, S., Papadopoulou, G. ve Xesfingi, S. (2021). Examining the link between terrorism and tourism demand: the case of Egypt. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 15(1), 69-87. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2021.1904965
• Ranga, M. ve Pradhan, P. (2014). Terrorism terrorizes tourism: Indian tourism effacing myths?. IJSSTH, 1(5), 26-39.
• Rauf, A., Siddique, H. M. A., Saleem, Q. ve Sidra, S. (2020). Terrorism and international tourism nexus: Evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(5), 387-393. Doi: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10674
• Raza, A., Abbasi, A. R., Shaikh, E. ve Aqib, S. (2023). Impact of terrorism on international tourism demand. Journal of Contemporary Business and Islamic Finance (JCBIF), 3(1), 226-239.
• Raza, S. A. ve Jawaid, S. T. (2013). Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 33, 65-70. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.008
• Rej, S., Hossain, M. E., Bandyopadhyay, A., Saba, C. S., Kumar, S. ve Mahalik, M. K. M. (2025). Modelling the asymmetric impact of terrorism and military expenditure on tourism development: A case of the tourist destination country. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 73(1), 24-42. Doi:https://doi.org/10.37741/t.73.1.2
• Saha, S. ve Yap, G. (2013). The moderation effects of political instability and terrorism on tourism development: A cross-country panel analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), 509-521. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513496472
• Salameh, M. T. B. ve Hourani, I. (2022). The impact of terrorism on tourism: Pilot study 2007–2017: (Case study of Jordan, Egypt, Spain and France). Dirasat: Human and Social Sciences, 49(1), 639-658.
• Santamaría, E. C. (2021). Terrorism and tourism: Evidences from a panel OLS estimation. Review of Economics and Finance, 19(1), 107-115.
• Santana-Gallego, M., Rosselló-Nadal, J. ve Fourie, J. (2016). The effects of terrorism, crime and corruption on tourism. Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA), 595, 1-28.
• Savvas, T. (2024). The effect of terrorism on tourism: a panel data analysis. Erişim, 30 Ekim 2024, https://dspace.lib.uom.gr/bitstream/2159/30076/4/TsentidisSavvasMsc2024.pdf
• Seabra, C., Reis, P. ve Abrantes, J. L. (2020). The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country. Annals of Tourism Research, 80, 1-13.
• Sezgin, Ş. ve Sezgin Kıroğlu, B. (2019). Terör olaylarının Türkiye'nin turizmine etkisinin analizi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(10), 16-27.
• Sloboda, B. W. (2003). Assessing the effects of terrorism on tourism by use of time series methods. Tourism Economics, 9(2), 179-190.
• Sun, Y. ve Luo, M. (2021). Impacts of terrorist events on tourism development: Evidence from Asia. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 46(4), 696-723. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1096348020986903
• Taner, B. (2000). Terörizm ve turizm. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 93-98.
• Tatoğlu Yerdelen, F. (2016). Panel veri ekonometrisi. İstanbul: Beta Yayımcılık.
• Thompson, A. (2011). Terrorism and tourism in developed versus developing countries. Tourism Economics, 17(3), 693-700. Doi: https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0064
• Unur, K. (2000). Turizm - terörizm ilişkisi ve Türkiye örneği. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 169-177. World Bank, (2025, 11 Mart). Erişim adresi: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
• Yap, G. ve Saha, S. (2013). Do political instability, terrorism, and corruption have deterring effects on tourism development even in the presence of unesco heritage? A cross-country panel estimate. Tourism Analysis, 18(5), 587-599. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3727/108354213X13782245307911
• Yardı, Z. ve Aksöz, E. O. (2021). Küresel boyutta terör- turizm ilişkisinin örnek olaylar üzerinden incelenmesi. Journal of Humanities and Tourism Research, 11(4), 796-818. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.14230/johut1092
• Yaya, M. E. (2009). Terrorism and tourism: the case of Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), 477-497. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242690903105414
• Yılmaz, K. Ç. ve Sandal, M. (2022). Terör saldırılarının gelen turistlerin ortalama harcamalarına etkisi. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20(Özel Sayı), 29-42. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.1053843
• Zeman, T. ve Urban, R. (2019). The negative impact of terrorism on tourism: Not just a problem for developing countries. Deturope, 11(2), 75-91.