The impact of terrorism on tourism in the Balkan countries

Öz

The study aims to investigate the impact of terrorism on tourism in Balkan countries for the period 2013-2020. Tourism is the dependent variable and represented by the number of tourist arrivals and terrorism is the independent variable and represented by the global terrorism index. The lowest value of the global terrorism index is 0 and the highest value is 10. As the index decreases, terrorism decreases and as the index increases, terrorism increases. Economic growth and inflation rate are used as control variables and military expenditures are used in the analysis to examine the moderating effect. In this study, panel data method is used, first, unit and time effects are examined with F, LR and LM tests, then Hausman test is performed and estimation is performed with the random effects model. Heteroscedasticity problem was encountered in the model and the model was re-estimated with the Huber, Eicker and White Estimator. According to the estimation results, the effect of terrorism on tourism is positive and significant. As terrorism increases in Balkan countries, the number of tourist arrivals increases. On the other hand, the interaction indicator used to examine the moderating effect has a negative impact on tourism. In other words, in the case of military expenditures, the number of tourist arrivals decreases as terrorism increases in the Balkan countries. It is concluded that economic growth and inflation, which are used as control variables, increase tourism in Balkan countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• terrorism
• tourism
• Balkan countries

Balkan ülkelerinde terörizmin turizm üzerindeki etkisi

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, Balkan ülkelerinde 2013-2020 dönemi için terörizmin turizm üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Turizm bağımlı değişken olup gelen turist sayısıyla, terörizm bağımsız değişken olup küresel terörizm endeksi ile temsil edilmiştir. Küresel terörizm endeksinin en düşük değeri 0, en yüksek değeri 10’dur. Endeks düştükçe terörizm azalmakta, endeks yükseldikçe terörizm artmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon oranı kontrol değişken olarak, askeri harcamalar da moderatör etkiyi incelemek için analizlerde kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada panel veri yöntemi kullanılmış, ilk olarak birim ve zaman etkilerine F, LR ve LM testleri ile bakılmış, daha sonra Hausman testi yapılarak tesadüfi etkiler modeli ile tahmin gerçekleştirilmiştir. Modelde değişen varyans sorunu ile karşılaşılmış ve bu soruna karşı Huber, Eicker ve White Tahmincisi ile model yeniden tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre terörizmin turizm üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Balkan ülkelerinde terörizm arttıkça gelen turist sayısı artış göstermektedir. Diğer taraftan moderatör etkiyi incelemek için kullanılan etkileşim göstergesinin turizm üzerindeki etkisi negatiftir. Yani askeri harcamalar durumunda Balkan ülkelerinde terörizm arttıkça gelen turist sayısı azalmaktadır. Kontrol değişken olarak kullanılan ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyonun Balkan ülkelerinde turizmi artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• terörizm
• turizm
• Balkan ülkeleri

Kaynakça

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