Türkiye’de hanehalkı finansal kırılganlığının belirleyicileri

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de hanehalkı finansal kırılganlığının belirleyicilerini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca, hanehalkı finansal kırılganlığının hanehalkı ekonomik refahı ve gizli yoksulluğun önemli bir göstergesi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Analiz, Avrupa İmar ve Kalkınma Bankası (AİKB) ve Dünya Bankası (DB) tarafından 2022-2023 yıllarında yürütülen Geçiş Dönemi Yaşam Araştırması IV’den elde edilen mikro verilere dayanmaktadır. Çalışmada, hanehalkı finansal kırılganlığı, bir hanehalkının beklenmedik harcamaları karşılayamaması olarak tanımlanırken, beklenmedik harcamaları karşılayabilen hanehalkları ise finansal olarak dirençli kabul edilmektedir. Bağımlı değişkenin ikili yapısı nedeniyle, çalışmada lojistik regresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Betimsel istatistikler, hanehalklarının %52,54’ünün finansal olarak kırılgan olduğunu göstermektedir. Lojistik regresyon analizinin sonuçları, gelir düzeyi, istihdam durumu, borç alabilme durumu, mevcut finansal durum, ev sahipliği, yaş, medeni durum, eğitim düzeyi ve hanede bakıma muhtaç yaşlı bireylerin varlığı gibi ekonomik ve sosyodemografik faktörlerin hanehalkı finansal kırılganlığını belirlediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre yüksek eğitim düzeyi, yüksek gelir düzeyi, borçlanma kabiliyeti, istihdamda olma durumu, ev sahibi olmak, evli olmak, 25 ve 34 yaş arasında olmak ve borçsuz olmak hanehalkı finansal kırılganlık olasılığını azaltmaktadır. Diğer yandan, hanede bakıma muhtaç yaşlı bireylerin bulunması ve bireylerin ortaokul ve altı düzeyde eğitime sahip olması hanehalkının finansal kırılganlığını arttırmaktadır. Düşük gelir ve düşük eğitim düzeyi gibi sosyoekonomik faktörlerin önemli etkisi, finansal kırılganlığın daha derin yapısal yoksulluk ve eşitsizliği yansıttığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• hanehalkı finansal kırılganlık
• yoksulluk
• lojistik regresyon
• Türkiye

Determinants of household financial fragility in Türkiye

Öz

The study aims to examine the determinants of household financial fragility in Türkiye. It also demonstrates that household financial fragility is a significant indicator of household economic well-being and hidden poverty. The analysis is based on microdata from the Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) IV, carried out by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank (WB) in 2022-2023. The study defines households’ financial fragility as a household’s inability to meet unexpected expenditures, while households that can meet them are considered financially resilient. Due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, a logistic regression model is used in the study. Descriptive statistics indicate that 52.54% of households are financially fragile. The results of the logistic regression analysis reveal that economic and sociodemographic factors, including income level, employment status, borrowing ability, current financial situation, home ownership, age, marital status, education level, and the presence of elderly household members in need of care, determine household financial fragility. Accordingly, higher levels of education, higher income, borrowing ability, employment status, home ownership, being married, being between the ages of 25 and 34, and being debt-free reduce the likelihood of household financial fragility. On the other hand, the presence of elderly individuals in need of care in the household and individuals with secondary education or below increases the household’s financial fragility. The significant impact of socioeconomic factors, such as low income and low levels of education, suggests that financial fragility reflects deeper structural poverty and inequality.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• household financial fragility
• poverty
• logistic regression
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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