The effectof political risk on stock markets: A literature review

Öz

There are different types of risks that investors should consider. The risk, defined as the “probability of deviation of the expected return from the actual return” in the finance literature, is divided into two groups, systematic and non-systematic risks. The purpose of this article is to examine the studies on how the political risk, which is one of the systemic risks, affects the financial markets, and to present the findings obtained in these studies to the readers. In this context, choices from political risk factors, Brexit Referendum, terrorist incidents, wars and international politic risk index were examined and studies in the local and foreign literature were examined. While determining the studies included in the article, studies investigating the results of the related events on stock markets were preferred. Thus, it is aimed that readers will be able to make a general assessment of political risk in stock markets. According to the results of the research conducted with the literature review method, it was determined that the political risk significantly affected the stock returns, and this effect varied depending on different factors such as the type of the event examined, the level of importance and the structure of the markets investigating the impact.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Stock markets
• election
• Brexit
• terrorist incidents
• wars

Politik riskin hisse senedi piyasaları üzerindeki etkisi: Bir literatür taraması

Öz

Finansal piyasalarda işlem yapan yatırımcıların göz önünde bulundurmaları gereken farklı riskler vardır. Finans literatüründe “beklenen getirinin gerçekleşen getiriden sapma olasılığı” olarak tanımlanan risk, sistematik ve sistematik olmayan riskler olmak üzere iki gruba ayrılır. Bu makalenin amacı sistematik riskler arasında yer alan politik riskin, finansal piyasaları nasıl etkilediği ile ilgili yapılmış çalışmaların incelenerek bu çalışmalarda elde edilen bulguların okuyuculara sunulmasıdır. Bu kapsamda politik risk unsurlarından seçimler, Brexit Referandumu, terör olayları, savaşlar ve uluslararası politik risk endeksi ele alınarak yerli ve yabancı literatürde yapılmış çalışmalar incelenmiştir. Makale kapsamına alınan çalışmalar belirlenirken ilgili olayların hisse senedi piyasaları üzerindeki sonuçlarını araştıran çalışmalar tercih edilmiştir. Böylece okurların politik riskin hisse senedi piyasalardaki karşılığı hakkında genel bir değerlendirme yapabilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Aynı kategorideki olaylar bir arada ele alınarak bu olayların farklı piyasalardaki etkilerinin bir arada sunulması hedeflenmiştir. Literatür taraması yöntemi ile yürütülen araştırma sonuçlarına göre politik riskin hisse senedi getirilerini genel olarak anlamlı düzeyde etkilediği bu etkinin ise incelenen olayın türü, önem düzeyi ve etkisi araştıran piyasaların yapısı gibi farklı unsurlara bağlı olarak değişim gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• hisse senedi piyasaları
• brexit
• seçim
• terör eylemleri
• savaşlar

Kaynakça

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