Predicting the risk of death for cryptocurrencies

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 548 - 565, 30.10.2022

Hulya Ozuysal , Murat Atan , H. Altay Güvenir

https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2022.8.3.011

Öz

The increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies in recent years has managed to attract the attention of investors. Investors, evaluating their investments with cryptocurrencies, which are speculative investment tools, invest in these currencies with very high volatility. However, many of the cryptocurrencies, whose numbers have increased rapidly in recent years and reached thousands, die before completing even a one-year time frame. This creates a serious societal impact that causes investors to lose significant amount of money. This article examined 2.825 cryptocurrencies, which started to be traded in 2017 and later. The article proposes a number of models that can be used to predict market risk for a portfolio of cryptocurrencies. Model is a methodology for ranking the risk of death for cryptocurrencies using only market closing prices and total daily volume. For this purpose, simple recurrent neural networks, a supervised machine learning method, are used to predict the death for cryptocurrencies. Our models rank the risk of dying in the next 30, 60, 90, 120, and 150 days using the retrospective 30-day performance of cryptocurrencies. As such, the models will be able to serve as a screening tool for investors looking to improve overall portfolio performance and avoid investing in high-risk cryptocurrencies. The article also contributes to the literature on the use of machine learning techniques in calculating the risk of death for cryptocurrencies. In the study, the best performance with the simple recurrent neural network model was obtained in Scenario 5 with a rate of 72.24% AUC. With this scenario, the probability of predicting a dead cryptocurrency as dead is 83.74%. From a financial point of view, it can be suggested as an acceptable value to be able to reduce the probability of failure of the investment by about eighty-four percent.

Anahtar Kelimeler

cryptocurrency, dead cryptocurrency, credit risk, recurrent neural network

Kripto para birimlerinin ölme riskinin tahmini

Öz

Son yıllarda kripto paraların artan popülaritesi yatırımcıların da dikkatini çekmeyi başarmıştır. Yatırımlarını spekülatif bir yatırım aracı olan kripto paralarla da değerlendirmek isteyen yatırımcılar volatilesi çok yüksek olan bu paralara yatırım yapmaktadır. Ancak son yıllarda sayıları hızla artan binlere ulaşan kripto para birimlerinin birçoğu bir yıllık zaman dilimini bile tamamlayamadan ölmektedir. Bu durum yatırımcıların önemli miktarda para kaybetmesine neden olan ciddi bir toplumsal etki yaratmaktadır. Bu makalede, 2017 ve sonrasında arz edilerek işlem görmeye başlayan ve sonrasında ölü olarak kabul edilen 2.825 kripto para birimi incelenmiştir. Makale, bir kripto para portföyü için piyasa riskini tahmin etmek için kullanılabilecek bir dizi model önermektedir. Modeller, kripto paraların yalnızca piyasa kapanış fiyatlarını ve günlük toplam hacimlerini kullanarak ölme riski sıralamasını yapmaya yönelik bir yöntem bilim önerisidir. Bu amaçla ölecek olan kripto paraları tahmin etmek için denetimli bir makine öğrenmesi yöntemi olan basit tekrarlayan sinir ağları kullanılmıştır. Modeller kripto paraların geriye dönük 30 günlük performanslarını kullanarak gelecek 30, 60, 90, 120 ve 150 gün içinde ölme riskini sıralamaktadır. Böylelikle, modeller, genel portföy performansını artıracak ve yüksek riskli kripto para birimlerine yatırım yapmaktan kaçınmak isteyen yatırımcılar için bir tarama aracı olarak hizmet edebilecektir. Makale ayrıca kripto paraların ölme riskinin hesaplanmasında makine öğrenmesi tekniklerinin kullanımı konusunda alan yazına katkıda da bulunmaktadır. Çalışmada basit tekrarlayan sinir ağı modeli ile en iyi performans % 72,24 AUC oranı ile Senaryo 5’de elde edilmiştir. Bu senaryo ile ölen bir kripto paranın ölü olarak tahmin edilme olasılığı % 83,74’dür. Finansal açıdan yaklaşık yüzde seksen dört oranında yatırımın başarısız olma olasılığını azaltabilmek kabul edilebilir bir değer olarak önerilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

kripto para, ölü kripto para, kredi riski, tekrarlayan sinir ağları

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