Integrating Disaster Risk into Real Estate Valuation: A Methodological Framework

Öz

Increasing disaster frequency and the climate crisis are rendering traditional methodologies, which are indifferent to risk, obsolete in real estate valuation. This study presents a methodological framework for the systematic integration of disaster risks into real estate valuation processes. This integration is mandated by the “regulatory triangle” formed by valuation standards (IVS 2025/RICS 2025), financial reporting (IFRS 13), and financial stability authorities (ECB/EBA). Risk metrics are integrated into financial valuation models through two main approaches. In the Income Approach (DCF), risk is incorporated into the model through 1) Net Operating Income (NOI) adjustments (EAL and insurance costs), 2) Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) adjustments (risk mitigation investments), and 3) a risk premium added to the discount rate. In the Comparative Sales Approach, risk attributes (EAL, PML) are used as inputs to Automated Valuation Models (AVM). To overcome the “black box” nature of these AVMs and comply with regulations such as the EU Artificial Intelligence Regulation, the use of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques such as SHAP has become mandatory. However, while this framework is consistent with the transparency and auditability principles required by IVS 2025 and IFRS 13, potential ethical challenges must also be managed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Real Estate Valuation
• Disaster Risk Entegration
• Disaster Risk Management

Gayrimenkul Değerlemesinde Afet Riski Entegrasyonu: Metodolojik Bir Çerçeve

Öz

Artan afet sıklığı ve iklim krizi, gayrimenkul değerlemesinde riske kayıtsız geleneksel metodolojileri geçersiz kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, afet risklerinin gayrimenkul değerleme süreçlerine sistematik entegrasyonu için metodolojik bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Bu entegrasyon, değerleme standartları (IVS 2025/RICS 2025), finansal raporlama (UFRS 13) ve finansal istikrar otoritelerinin (ECB/EBA) oluşturduğu "düzenleyici üçgen" tarafından zorunlu kılınmaktadır. Risk metrikleri, finansal değerleme modellerine iki ana yaklaşımla entegre edilmektedir. Gelir Yaklaşımında (DCF), risk; 1) Net Faaliyet Geliri (NFG) düzeltmesi (EAL ve sigorta maliyetleri), 2) Sermaye Harcamaları (CAPEX) ayarlaması (risk azaltım yatırımları) ve 3) iskonto oranına eklenen risk primi aracılığıyla modele dahil edilmektedir. Karşılaştırmalı Satış Yaklaşımında ise risk öznitelikleri (EAL, PML) Otomatik Değerleme Modellerine (AVM) girdi olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu AVM’lerin "kara kutu" doğasını aşmak ve AB Yapay Zekâ Tüzüğü gibi düzenlemelere uymak için SHAP gibi Açıklanabilir Yapay Zekâ (XAI) tekniklerinin kullanımı zorunlu hale gelmektedir. Ancak, bu çerçevenin IVS 2025 ve UFRS 13’ün gerektirdiği şeffaflık ve denetlenebilirlik ilkeleriyle uyumlu olsa da potansiyel etik zorlukların da yönetilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Afet Risk Yönetimi
• Afet Risk Entegrasyonu
• Gayrimenkul Değerlendirme

Kaynakça

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