A framework for the evaluation of buildings in the context of climate change for Turkey

Öz

A framework which evaluates buildings in the context of climate risks is suggested for Turkey. The study is aimed to create a framework based on literature which can assess climate change effects on building scale. The framework has risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment and conclusion-recommendations steps. According to these steps, high temperature and flood risks are critical for Turkey. In the method for risk analysis step, these climate risks for buildings are assessed with a qualitative method which is focused on a certain area with specific climatic data. In the risk assessment step, the method is done with using a 5-point Likert scale by taking expert opinion. After the results of risk score, suggestions can be made in the recommendation/conclusion phase. In conclusion, high temperature, flood and wildfire risk effects buildings’ energy demand, building parts, energy consumption, building materials respectively. Since this proposed framework is a general framework, it gives results that vary according to the climate data according to the region/city/building. Regarding the potential risk scenarios, it was understood that building design must be adapted to the climate change effects and should have been evaluated by a climate-risk assessment framework properly.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• disaster risk reduction
• climate change
• assessment frameworks
• resiliency
• buildings

Kaynakça

1. Ahsan, S. M. M. (2013). Resilient cities for the poor or by the poor. (Master of Science). A case study from Bangkok. Technische Universität, Berlin. Retrieved from: https://www.urbanmanagement.tu-berlin.de/fileadmin/f6_urbanmanagement/Study_Course/student_work/Thesis_Ahsan_Resilient_Cities_for_the_Poor_or_by_the_Poor.pdf.
2. Balaban, Ş. M. (2009). Risk society and planning: the case of flood disaster management in Turkish cities. (Philosophy of Doctorate Thesis). Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
3. Bassett, T.J.; Fogelman, C. (2013)Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature. Geoforum, 48, 42–53. Retrieved March 28, 2021, from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.04.010.
4. Basyouni, M. E. (2017). Resilient Buildings: A Path towards Adaptability Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Interventions for Buildings Resilience. International Journal of Current Engineering and Technology, 7, 12. Retrieved from: https://inpressco.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Paper25481-492.pdf.
5. Başkan, E.G. (2016). A Proposed model for understanding the impacts of climate change on tangible cultural heritage. (Doctoral dissertation). Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
6. Batan, M. (2014). Global climate change and its expected consequences (Doctoral dissertation). Dicle University, Diyarbakır.
7. Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., ... & Welle, T. (2013). Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural hazards, 67(2), 193-211. Doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5.
8. Booth, C. A., Hammond, F. N., Proverbs, D. G., Lamond, J. (2012). Solutions for climate change challenges in the built environment (Digitally). United States: John Wiley & Sons.

9. Bozoğlu, B. (2018). What Turkey Should Do About the Early Warning System under the Paris Climate Agreement. (Doctoral dissertation). Ankara University, Ankara.
10. Cerѐ, G., Rezgui, Y., Zhao, W. (2017). Critical review of existing built environment resilience frameworks: directions for future research. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 25, 173-189. Retrieved March 29, 2021, from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.018
11. Chambers, R. (1989). Vulnerability, coping and policy. Institue of Development Studies, 20(2):1–7. Retrieved March 29, 2021, from: https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/9551.
12. Cimellaro, G. P. (2016). Urban Resilience for Emergency Response and Recovery. Fundamental Concepts and Applications (Digitally). Switzerland : Springer International Publishing.
13. Critto, A. (2016). Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability approaches [Powerpoint slides] Retrieved March, 13 2021, from: https://www.climamed.eu/wp-content/uploads/files/Climate-Change-Impacts-Adaptation-and-Vulnerability-Approaches.pdf.
14. Dino, I. G. and C. M. Akgul (2019). "Impact of climate change on the existing residential building stock in Turkey: An analysis on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and occupant comfort." Renewable Energy, 141: 828-846.
15. Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency. (2019). Types of disasters. Retrieved March 15, 2021, from: https://www.afad.gov.tr/afet-turleri.
16. DNV-GL. (2020) .B- Ready. Retrieved March 20, 2021 from: https://www.dnv.com/services/b-ready-106852.
17. Downing, T. E., Patwardhan, A., Klien, R., Mukhala, E., Stephen, L., Winograd, M., & Ziervogel, G. (2003). Vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation. APF technical paper, 3.
18. Escarameia, M. and Tagg, A. (2021). Flood Resilience of Critical Buildings: Assessment Methods and Tools. In Climate Resilient Urban Areas (pp. 67-83). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
19. Fakhruddin, B., Boylan, K., Wild, A., & Robertson, R. (2020). Chapter 12 - Assessing vulnerability and risk of climate change. In J. Sillmann, S. Sippel, & S. Russo (Eds.), Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment (pp. 217-241): Elsevier.
20. Folke, C. (2006). Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global environmental change, 16(3), 253-267. Retrieved April 10, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002
21. Gero, A.; Méheux, K.; Dominey-Howes, D. (2011). Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 101–113. Retrieved March 29, 2021, from: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-101-2011.
22. Gero, A.; Méheux, K.; Dominey-Howes, D. (2011). Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Pacific. Climate and Development, 3, 310–327. Retrieved March 29, 2021, from: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2011.624791.
23. Holling, C. S. (1996). Engineering resilience versus ecological resilience. Engineering within ecological constraints, 31(1996), 32. Retrieved from: https://books.google.com.tr/books?hl=en&lr=&id=qXxOAgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT39&ots=lKThoDMnFu&sig=uOsgnwC7XK4vkf.
24. Hosseini, S., Barker, K., Ramirez, M., Jose E. (2016). A review of definitions and measures of system resilience. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.006
25. IPCC. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. In Contribution of WG II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2001. Retrieved March, 26, 2021 from: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_TAR_full_report.pdf.
26. IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. Retrieved March 19, 2021, from: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg3/ .
27. IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
28. Kantamaneni, K. (2017). Assessing Coastal Vulnerability: Development of a Combined Physical and Economic Index. (Philosophy of Doctorate Thesis). University of Wales Trinity Saint David, United Kingdom.
29. Kelly, P.M., Adger, W.N. (2000). Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climate Change, 47, 325–352. Retrieved March 26, 2021, from: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005627828199.
30. Lei, Y.; Wang, J. (2014). A preliminary discussion on the opportunities and challenges of linking climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction. Natural Hazards, 71, 1587–1597. Retrieved March 30, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0966-6.
31. Lindsey, R. (2009). Climate and earth’s energy budget. NASA Earth Observatory, 680.
32. McEntire, D., Crocker, C. G., & Peters, E. (2010). Addressing vulnerability through an integrated approach. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 1 (1). Retrieved April 15, 2021, from: https://doi.org/10.1108/17595901011026472.
33. Onur, A.C. (2014). Evaluation of Urbanization in Istanbul in the Framework of Adaptation to Climate Change. (Doctoral dissertation). İstanbul Technical University, İstanbul.
34. Opach, T., Glaas, E., Hjerpe, M., Navarra, C. (2020). Vulnerability Visualization to Support Adaptation to Heat and Floods: Towards the EXTRA Interactive Tool in Norrköping, Sweden. Sustainability, 12(3), 1179. Retrieved March 28, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031179.
35. Özdem, Y., Dal, B., Öztürk, N., Sönmez, D., & Alper, U. (2014). What is that thing called climate change? An investigation into the understanding of climate change by seventh-grade students. International Research in Geographical and Environmental Education, 23(4), 294-313.
36. Papathoma-Köhle, M., Promper, C., Glade, T. (2016). A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping of climate change related hazards—implications for climate change adaptation policies. Climate, 4(1), 8. Retrieved April 1, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4010008.
37. Pidgeon, N., Fischhoff, B. (2011). The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks, Nature Climate Change 1, 35–41. Retrieved April 6, 2021 from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1080.
38. Pievc Program (2018). Climate change impacts on the housing infrastructure at Oneida Nation of the Thames. Retrieved March 29, 2021, from: https://pievc.ca/2018/07/24/climate-change-impacts-on-the-housing-infrastructure-at-oneida-nation-of-the-thames/.
39. PreventionWeb (The knowledge platform for disaster risk reduction). (2015) .Disaster risk. Retrieved March 15, 2021, from: https://www.preventionweb.net/disaster-risk/risk/disaster-risk/.
40. Rajkovich, N. B., Okour, Y. (2019). Climate Change Resilience Strategies for the Building Sector: Examining Existing Domains of Resilience Utilized by Design Professionals. Sustainability, 11(10). Retrieved April 5, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su11102888
41. Redman, C.L. (2014). Should sustainability and resilience be combined or remain distinct pursuits? Ecology and Society,19, 1. Retrieved April 2, 2021 from: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol19/iss2/art37/.
42. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization.(2018). Seventh national statement of Turkey. Retrieved July 13, 2021 from: https://webdosya.csb.gov.tr/db/cygm/icerikler/yed-nc--ulusal-b-ld-r-m-20190909092640.pdf
43. Scribbr. (2020). Designing and analyzing Likert scales. Retrieved July 13, 2021, from: https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/likert-scale/
44. Smith, P. F. (2005). Architecture in a climate of change. Elsevier, Oxford, United Kingdom.
45. Tanik, A., Tekten, D. (2018). Planning Climate Change Adaptation Activities for Turkey. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 9(9). Retrieved April 2, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.18178/ijesd.2018.9.9.1110
46. Thinkhazard. (2020). Turkey river flood. Retrieved March 28, 2021, from: https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/249-turkey/FL.
47. Thinkhazard. (2020). Turkey coastal flood. Retrieved March 28, 2021, from: https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/249-turkey/CF.
48. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat. (2008). Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction. Retrieved March 13, 2021, from: https://www.unisdr.org/files/4146_ClimateChangeDRR.pdf.
49. UNFCC (2021). What do adaptation to climate change and climate resilience mean?. Retrieved July 15, 2021, from: https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/what-do-adaptation-to-climate-change-and-climate-resilience-mean.
50. UNDP (2002). A Climate Risk Management Approach to Disaster Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change. Retrieved July 10, 2021, from: https://www.ipcc.ch/apps/njlite/srex/njlite_download.php?id=7078.
51. Un-Spider Knowledge Portal. (2021). Disaster management. Retrieved March 18, 2021, from: https://www.un-spider.org/risks-and-disasters.
52. Viner, D, Ekstrom, M, Hulbert, M, Warner, NK, Wreford, A, Zommers, Z. (2020). Understanding the dynamic nature of risk in climate change assessments—A new starting point for discussion. Atmosferic Science Letters, 21:e958, Retrieved April 2, 2021 from: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.958
53. Yıldız, Y.(2012). Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis to Reduce Cooling Requirement of Low-rise Apartment Blocks in the Hot-Humid Climate Region of Turkey. (Doctoral dissertation). İzmir High Technology University, İzmir.