TOPLUMUN ARŞİVLERİNDEN İKLİMİN YENİDEN İNŞASI: TARİHSEL KLİMATOLOJİDE METODOLOJİK DÖNÜŞÜM VE YENİ UFUKLAR

Öz

İnsan elinden çıkmış her türlü belgeyi ve maddi kalıntıyı “toplumun arşivleri” olarak nitelendiren tarihsel klimatoloji, aletli ölçümlerin olmadığı dönemlere ait iklim koşullarını yüksek çözünürlükle yeniden inşa etmeyi amaçlayan disiplinler arası bir sahadır. Günümüzde bu alan, geçmiş hava olaylarının insanlık tarihindeki yerini sorgulayan daha geniş kapsamlı “iklim tarihi” disiplininin temel bir alt dalı olarak kabul edilmektedir. Literatür taraması ve kavramsal analiz yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada, disiplinin Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie’nin “insansız tarih” yaklaşımından başlayıp, Christian Pfister’in standartlaştırdığı modern nicel yöntemlere uzanan teorik dönüşümü incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın ilk bölümünde, paleoklimatolojik veriler ile insan deneyimi arasında var olan "ölçek boşluğu" sorunu ele alınmış; bu boşluğu dolduran “toplum arşivleri” ile “doğa arşivleri” arasındaki metodolojik farklar tartışılmıştır. Devamında ise tarihsel klimatolojinin bel kemiğini oluşturan ve nitel kayıtların (kronikler, günlükler) istatistiksel verilere dönüştürülmesini sağlayan indeksleme (özellikle Pfister Endeksi), kalibrasyon ve doğrulama süreçleri teknik açıdan irdelenmiştir. Araştırmada ulaşılan önemli sonuçlardan biri, mevcut metodolojinin evrensel olmasına rağmen, uygulamaların büyük ölçüde Avrupa ile sınırlı kaldığı gerçeğidir. Bu tespitten hareketle, çalışmanın sonuç bölümünde disiplinin “terra incognita” (bilinmeyen toprak) konumundaki Orta Doğu ve İslam coğrafyasına genişlemesi gerektiği savunulmuştur. Özellikle Arapça kronikler, nevazil literatürü ve yağmur dualarının sunduğu kesintisiz veri potansiyeli, sadece bölgesel boşlukları doldurmak için değil, aynı zamanda Akdeniz havzasındaki iklimsel tele-bağlantıların anlaşılması ve disiplinin küresel bir perspektif kazanması adına değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarihsel Klimatoloji
• İklim Tarihi
• Toplum Arşivleri
• Pfister İndeksi
• İklim Rekonstrüksiyonu
• Arapça Kaynaklar.

Reconstructing Climate from the Archives of Society: Methodological Transformation and New Horizons in Historical Climatology

Öz

Historical climatology, which characterizes every kind of document and material remnant produced by humans as “archives of society,” is an interdisciplinary field aiming to reconstruct climate conditions of the pre-instrumental period with high resolution. Today, this field is regarded as a fundamental sub-discipline of the broader “climate history,” which interrogates the place of past weather events in human history. Employing literature review and conceptual analysis methods, this study examines the theoretical evolution of the discipline, ranging from Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie's “history without people” approach to the modern quantitative methodologies standardized by Christian Pfister. The first part of the study addresses the “scale gap” problem existing between paleoclimatological data and human experience, and discusses the methodological differences between “archives of society”—which serve to bridge this gap—and “archives of nature.” Subsequently, the indexing (specifically the Pfister Index), calibration, and verification processes, which constitute the backbone of historical climatology and enable the transformation of qualitative records (chronicles, diaries) into statistical data, are analyzed in technical detail. One of the significant findings of the research is that, despite the universal applicability of the existing methodology, its applications remain largely limited to Europe. Based on this observation, the final section argues that the discipline must expand into the Middle East and Islamic geography, which currently stands as “terra incognita” (unknown land). In particular, the potential of Arabic chronicles, nawazil literature, and rain prayers to provide continuous data series has been evaluated not only to fill regional gaps, but also to understand climatic teleconnections in the Mediterranean basin and to gain a global perspective for the discipline.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Historical Climatology
• Climate History
• Archives of Society
• Pfister Index
• Climate Reconstruction
• Arabic Sources.

Kaynakça

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