Jaya algoritması ile optimize edilmiş yapay sinir ağlarını kullanarak Türkiye’de elektrik enerjisi tüketiminin tahmini

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 511 - 528, 27.09.2020

Ergun Uzlu , Tayfun Dede

https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.684334

Cited By: 2

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'nin gelecekteki elektrik enerjisi tüketimini (EET) tahmin etmek için Jaya algoritması kullanılarak eğitilmiş bir yapay sinir ağ (YSA) modeli oluşturmaktır. Gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH), nüfus, ithalat ve ihracat verileri modelde bağımsız değişkenler olarak kullanılarak önerilen yöntem irdelenmiştir. Önerilen yöntemin doğruluğunu göstermek için YSA-Jaya diğer iki yüksek performanslı optimizasyon yöntemi olan yapay arı kolonisi (YAK) ve öğretme öğrenme tabanlı optimizasyon (ÖÖTO) algoritmaları eğitilmiş YSA modelleri ile karşılaştırılmıştır. YSA-Jaya modeli, test veri setinde YSA-YAK ve YSA-ÖÖTO modellerinden daha küçük hata değerlerine yakınsamıştır. Bu nedenle, YSA-Jaya algoritması kullanılarak Türkiye’nin EET projeksiyonu iki farklı senaryoya göre 2023 yılına kadar yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar TEİAŞ (Türkiye Elektrik İletim Kurumu) tarafından yapılan projeksiyonlar ve literatürdeki diğer ilgili çalışmalarla karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, EET'nin YSA-Jaya kullanılarak doğru bir şekilde modellenebileceğini ve bu optimizasyon yönteminin gelecekteki elektrik tüketimini tahmin etmek için avantajlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jaya Algoritması, Yapay Arı Kolonisi Algoritması, Öğretme Öğrenme Tabanlı Optimizasyon Algoritması, Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketimi, Yapay Sinir Ağları, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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