Türkiye’de Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 13, 30 - 39, 01.07.2018

M Metin Dam A Can Bakkalcı

Öz

Ticari açıklık ve makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler pek çok araştırmanın konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki ticari dışa açıklık, enflasyon ve büyüme dinamikleri 1987-2016 yılları baz alınarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada 1987-2016 yılları için kullanılan yıllık zaman serisi verileri ekonometrik modelleme konu edilmiştir. Modelde yer alan her bir değişkenin durağanlık düzeyini kontrol etmek için Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller ADF ve Phillips-Perron PP testleri uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin tespiti için Johansen eş-bütünleşme analizleri yapılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonucunda uzun dönemde ticari dışa açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin pozitif ve anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Döviz Kuru, Enflasyon, Türkiye

Trade Openness and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey: An Econometric Approach

Öz

The relationship between trade openness and macroeconomic variables has been a subject of many studies. This study focuses on trade openness, inflation and growth dynamics for Turkey over the period 1987–2016. We use econometric techniques for the analysis. The analysis based on yearly time series data for the period 1987 to 2016. This paper uses ADF and PP tests to find out stationarity of the variables. Johansen co-integration techniques have been used for the estimation. We conclude that the long run relationship among the variables

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Turkey

Kaynakça

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