Covid-19 Pandemisinin Vergi Gelirleri Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Hükümetler tarafından vergi gelirlerinin toplanması birçok amaca hizmet etmektedir. Vergiler temelde kamu harcamalarının finansmanını sağlama amacı taşısa da iktisadi ve sosyal amaçların gerçekleşmesi için de kullanılan bir araçtır. Dolayısıyla vergi gelirleri bu amaçların gerçekleştirilmesinde önemli bir fonksiyona sahiptir. Diğer taraftan doğal afetler gibi öngörülemeyen durumlar ülke ekonomileri üzerinde bir hayli olumsuz bir etkiye sahiptir. 2019 yılının sonlarında Çin’de ortaya çıkan ve dünyayı sarsan Covid-19 pandemisi de bu afetlerden biri olmakla birlikte küresel anlamda ülke ekonomilerini olumsuz etkilemiştir. Bu çalışmada Covid-19 pandemisinin Türkiye’de vergi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi tespit edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Zaman serisi analiz yönteminin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada, değişkenlerin durağan olup olmadığı tek kırılmalı Lee-Strazicich yapısal birim kök testi ile, değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığı ise Gregory-Hansen eş-bütünleşme testi kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Değişkenlere ilişkin yapısal kırılmalı eş-bütünleşme analizi uzun dönem FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR tahminleri sonucunda, Covid-19 pandemisinin vergi gelirleri üzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönde etkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19 Pandemisi
• Vergi Gelirleri
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Tax Revenues

Öz

The collection of tax revenues by governments serves many purposes. Although taxes basically aim to finance public expenditures, they are also a tool used for the realization of economic and social purposes. Therefore, tax revenues have an significant function in the realization of these goals. On the other hand, unpredictable situations such as natural disasters have a very negative effect on the country's economy. The Covid-19 pandemic, which emerged in China at the end of 2019 and shook the world, was one of these disasters, and negatively affected the economies of the countries globally. In this study, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on tax revenues in Turkey was determined. In the present study, in which the time series analysis method was used, the single break Lee-Strazicich structural unit root test was used to determine whether the variables were stationary or not, and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test was used to determine whether there was a cointegration relationship between the variables. As a result of the long-term FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations of the structural break cointegration analysis of the variables, a statistically significant and negative effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on tax revenues was determined.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Covid-19 Pandemic
• Tax Revenues
• Time Series Analysis

Kaynakça

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