Impact of Inflation, Interest Rates, Credit Volume, and Housing Supply on Housing Prices in Türkiye

Öz

This study examines housing prices, which have increased rapidly in recent years due to the increasing imbalance between supply and demand. Based on this, the effects of the producer price index (PPI), housing loan interest rates (KKF), total credit supply (TKH) and total number of apartments (TKS), which are known to affect housing prices, on housing prices (KFE) were examined in this study. These variables are important factors that drive supply and demand in the housing sector. Long-term model estimation was made using the Quantile regression (QR) method. In addition, robustness tests were performed using the OLS (ordinary least squares), FMOLS (fully modified ordinary least squares) and DOLS (dynamic ordinary least squares) methods. According to the results of the study, there is a strong cointegration relationship between the variables. According to the QR method, the effects of PPI and TKH on housing prices are positive. The effects of KKF and TKS on housing prices are negative. According to the Granger causality test results, there is no causality relationship from PPI and KKF to housing prices, but there is a causality relationship from TKH and TKS to housing prices.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Housing Prices
• PPI
• Interest Rates
• Loan Volume
• Quantile Regression

Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Faiz, Kredi Hacmi ve Konut Arzının Konut Fiyatları Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmada son yıllarda arz ve talep arasında artan dengesizliğin etkisi ile hızlı bir şekilde yükselişe geçen konut fiyatları incelenmiştir. Buradan yola çıkılarak bu çalışmada konut fiyatlarını etkilediği bilinen üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE), konut kredi faiz oranları (KKF), toplam kredi hacmi (TKH) ve toplam daire sayısının (TKS) konut fiyatları (KFE) üzerindeki etkisi araştırıldı. Bu değişkenler konut sektöründe arz ve talebi yönlendiren önemli faktörlerdir. Uzun dönem model tahmini Quantile regresyon (QR) yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra OLS (ordinary least squares), FMOLS (fully modified ordinary least squares) ve DOLS (dynamic ordinary least squares), yöntemleriyle sağlamlık testi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında güçlü bir eş bütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. QR yöntemine göre ÜFE ve TKH’nın konut fiyatları üzerinde etkisi pozitiftir. KKF ve TKS’nin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisi ise negatiftir. Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ÜFE ve KKF’den konut fiyatlarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememişken, TKH ve TKS’den konut fiyatlarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konut Fiyatları
• ÜFE
• Faiz Oranları
• Kredi Hacmi
• Quantile Regresyon

Kaynakça

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