PARA ARZI İÇSELLİK ANALİZİ TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (2006-2017)

Öz

Para Arzı İçsellik Analizi Türkiye Örneği (2006-2017) isimli çalışma yazar tarafından araştırılan ampirik bir çalışmadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 2006Q1-2017Q4 döneminde para arzının içsel olup olmadığını belirlemektir. Para arzının içsel olup olmadığı iktisat literatürde nedensellik analizleri ile belirlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada nedensellik analizlerini gerçekleştirmek için değişken olarak M1, M2 ve M3 Para Arzları, Toplam Kredi Hacmi, Nominal Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle değişkenlerin durağanlık durumları Augment Dickey Füller ve Phillips-Perron birim kök testleri ile belirlenmiştir. Birim kök test sonuçlarına göre değişkenler farklı düzeyde durağan bulunmuştur. Farklı düzeyde durağan serilerle Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Yapılan nedensellik test sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre analiz döneminde Türkiye’de para arzının içsel olmadığı belirlenmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Arzı İçselliği,İçsel Para Arzı Yaklaşımları

THE ENDOGENTY ANALYSIS OF MONEY SUPPLY THE CASE OF TURKEY(2006-2017)

Öz

The Endogenty Analysıs Of Money Supply The Case Of Turkey(2006-2017)named study is an emperical study researched by the author. The aim of this study is to determine whether 2006Q1-2017Q4 period the endogeneity of money supply in Turkey. Whether the money supply is endogenous or not is determined by the causality analysis in the economic literature. In this study, M1, M2 and M3 Money Supply, Total Credit Volum, Nominal Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Indices were used as variables to perform causality analyzes. Firstly, stationary states of variables were determined by Augment Dickey Füller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests. According to the unit root test results, variables were found to be stable at different levels. The Toda-Yamamoto causality test was performed with stationary series at different levels. According to causality test results obtained from the causality tests analysis the money supply was not determine endegenous in the analysis period in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Money Supply Endogeneity,Endogenous Money Supply Approaches,Toda-Yamamoto Causality

Kaynakça

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