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The Effect of Global Interest Rates on Business Cycles in Developing Countries within The Austrian Business Cycle Theory Framework: A Panel VAR Application

Yıl 2019, Cilt 10, Sayı 2, 439 - 451, 24.07.2019

Öz

In this study, it was analyzed the effects of global interest rates on nine developing countries within the Austrian business cycle theory. According to the Austrian Business Cycles Theory, the artificial decline in interest rates disrupts the resource allocation of the economy, causing an unsustainable economic recovery, and the process results in a crisis. After examining the Austrian business cycle theory for closed and open economies, the panel VAR model was tested for the 1996-2016 period. First, it was investigated the relationship between the US-Euro Area interest rates and interest rates of developing countries. It was found that both interest rates have impacts on interest rates of developing countries. Then, it was analyzed that the effects of these three interest rates on industrial production of developing countries. Besides the domestic interest rates, especially the US interest rate has significant effects on changing in industrial production. 

Kaynakça

  • Abrigo, M. R. M., ve Love, I. (2015). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. Stata Journal, 16(3), 778–804. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
  • Blaug, M. (1985). Economic Theory in Retrospect, Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cachanosky, N. (2014a). The effects of U.S. monetary policy on Colombia and Panama (2002-2007). Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(3), 428–436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2014.03.003
  • Cachanosky, N. (2014b). The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies. Review of Austrian Economics, 27(3), 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-012-0188-2
  • Cachanosky, N. (2015). U.S. monetary policy’s impact on Latin America’s structure of production (1960-2010). Latin American Journal of Economics, 52(2), 307–341.
  • Cachanosky, N. ve Hoffmann, A. (2016). Monetary Policy, the Composition of GDP and Crisis Duration in Europe. Global Economic Review, 45(2), 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2015.1137484
  • Cowen, T. (1997). Risk and Business Cycles New and Old Austrian Perspectives. London and New York: Routledge.
  • Garrison, R. (2001). Time and Money. New York: Routledge.
  • Georgiadis, G. (2016). Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.010
  • Hayek, F. A. (1931). Prices and Production and Other Works. New York: Augustus M. Kelly, Publishers.
  • Hayek, F. A. (1939). Profits, Interest and Investment. London: George Routledge & Sons Ltd.
  • Hoffmann, A. (2010). An overinvestment cycle in central and eastern europe? Metroeconomica, 61(4), 711–734. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2010.04103.x
  • Hoffmann, A. ve Schnabl, G. (2013). Monetary Nationalism and International Economic Instability. Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 16, No. 2, 135-164
  • Hoffmann, A., ve Schnabl, G. (2016). Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 855–873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.08.002
  • Im, Kyung-So, Lee, J. ve Tieslau M. (2005). Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 393–419. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1336.00
  • Luther, W. J., ve Mcelyea, J. P. (2018). Austrian Macroeconomics in Search of its Uniqueness. AIER Sound Money Project Working Paper No. 2018-05. AIER Sound Money Project Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 2015-05. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998919
  • Mises, L. von. (1953). The Theory of Money and Credit. Indiana: Liberty Fund, Inc.
  • Mises, L. von. (2006). Economic Policy. Third Edition. Auburn, Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Oppers, S. E. (2002). ABC theory: Old lessons for modern economic policy? IMF Working Paper, WP/02/2.
  • Taylor, J. B. (2007). Housing and Monetary Policy. New York, (September), 1–11.
  • Taylor, J. B. (2009). The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong. NBER Working Paper, No. 14631, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/13581980911004352

Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi Çerçevesinde Global Faiz Oranlarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki İş Çevrimlerine Etkisi: Panel VAR Uygulaması

Yıl 2019, Cilt 10, Sayı 2, 439 - 451, 24.07.2019

Öz

Bu çalışmada Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi çerçevesinde global faiz oranlarının dokuz gelişmekte olan ülke üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi’ne göre, faiz oranlarındaki suni düşüş ekonominin kaynak dağılımını bozarak sürdürülebilir olmayan bir ekonomik canlanmaya neden olmakta ve süreç krizle sonuçlanmaktadır. Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi kapalı ve açık ekonomiler için incelendikten sonra, 1996-2016 dönemi için panel VAR modeli ile test edilmiştir. İlk olarak, ABD ve Euro Bölgesi faiz oranları ile gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki incelenmiş ve her iki faiz oranının da gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faizleri üzerinde belirleyici etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, üç faiz oranının gelişmekte olan ülkelerin endüstriyel üretimi üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Yurt içi faizlerin yanı sıra, özellikle ABD faiz oranının endüstriyel üretimdeki değişimler üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. 

Kaynakça

  • Abrigo, M. R. M., ve Love, I. (2015). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata. Stata Journal, 16(3), 778–804. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
  • Blaug, M. (1985). Economic Theory in Retrospect, Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cachanosky, N. (2014a). The effects of U.S. monetary policy on Colombia and Panama (2002-2007). Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 54(3), 428–436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2014.03.003
  • Cachanosky, N. (2014b). The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies. Review of Austrian Economics, 27(3), 281–299. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-012-0188-2
  • Cachanosky, N. (2015). U.S. monetary policy’s impact on Latin America’s structure of production (1960-2010). Latin American Journal of Economics, 52(2), 307–341.
  • Cachanosky, N. ve Hoffmann, A. (2016). Monetary Policy, the Composition of GDP and Crisis Duration in Europe. Global Economic Review, 45(2), 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2015.1137484
  • Cowen, T. (1997). Risk and Business Cycles New and Old Austrian Perspectives. London and New York: Routledge.
  • Garrison, R. (2001). Time and Money. New York: Routledge.
  • Georgiadis, G. (2016). Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.010
  • Hayek, F. A. (1931). Prices and Production and Other Works. New York: Augustus M. Kelly, Publishers.
  • Hayek, F. A. (1939). Profits, Interest and Investment. London: George Routledge & Sons Ltd.
  • Hoffmann, A. (2010). An overinvestment cycle in central and eastern europe? Metroeconomica, 61(4), 711–734. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2010.04103.x
  • Hoffmann, A. ve Schnabl, G. (2013). Monetary Nationalism and International Economic Instability. Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 16, No. 2, 135-164
  • Hoffmann, A., ve Schnabl, G. (2016). Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 855–873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.08.002
  • Im, Kyung-So, Lee, J. ve Tieslau M. (2005). Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 393–419. https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1336.00
  • Luther, W. J., ve Mcelyea, J. P. (2018). Austrian Macroeconomics in Search of its Uniqueness. AIER Sound Money Project Working Paper No. 2018-05. AIER Sound Money Project Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 2015-05. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2998919
  • Mises, L. von. (1953). The Theory of Money and Credit. Indiana: Liberty Fund, Inc.
  • Mises, L. von. (2006). Economic Policy. Third Edition. Auburn, Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Oppers, S. E. (2002). ABC theory: Old lessons for modern economic policy? IMF Working Paper, WP/02/2.
  • Taylor, J. B. (2007). Housing and Monetary Policy. New York, (September), 1–11.
  • Taylor, J. B. (2009). The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong. NBER Working Paper, No. 14631, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/13581980911004352

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Serdar GÖCEN (Sorumlu Yazar)
OSMANİYE KORKUT ATA ÜNİVERSİTESİ
0000-0002-5742-191X
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 24 Temmuz 2019
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019, Cilt 10, Sayı 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Göcen, S. (2019). Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi Çerçevesinde Global Faiz Oranlarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki İş Çevrimlerine Etkisi: Panel VAR Uygulaması . Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi , 10 (2) , 439-451 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/gumus/issue/47286/488369