Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Dış Borç ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri Örneği

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 448 - 460, 26.06.2020

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yatırımlar için gerekli tasarrufların yurtiçinde yetersiz kalması, bu ülkeleri dış kaynak arayışına ve dış borçlanmaya itmektedir. Bu çalışmada “Kırılgan Beşli” olarak adlandırılan Brezilya, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’de dış borçlanma-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi 1970-2018 dönemi için VAR modelleri ile incelenmiştir. Oluşturulan VAR modelleri kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarını desteklemek amacıyla, değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırma analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgular şu şekildedir: i) Brezilya’da dış borç stoku ile GSYİH arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş, ancak dış borçlanmanın büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin daha fazla olduğu görülmüştür. ii) Endonezya ve Hindistan’da dış borç stoku ile GSYİH arasında anlamlı ilişki bulunamamıştır. iii) Türkiye ve Güney Afrika’da dış borç stokundan GSYİH’ya doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve bu ülkelerde dış borçlanmanın büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkisinin olduğu görülmüştür.

Kaynakça

  • Awan, R. U., Anjum, A. & Rahim, S. (2015). An econometric analysis of determinants of external debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 5(4): 382-391.
  • Chaudhry, I. S., Iffat, S. & Farooq, F. (2017). Foreign direct investment, external debt and economic growth: Evidence from some selected developing countries. Review of Economics and Development Studies,3(2): 111-124.
  • Checherita, C. & Rother, P. (2010). The impact of high and growing gowernment debt on economic growth an empirical investigation for the Euro area. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No:1237: 1-42.
  • Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R. & Nguyen, T. Q. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/03/249: 1-20.
  • Çöğürcü, İ. ve Çoban, O. (2011). Dış borç büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1980-2009). KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(21): 133-149.
  • Darnell, A. C. (1990). Dictionary of econometrics. London: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root., Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S. & Startz, R. (1998). Macroeconomics. Seventh Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • Fosu, A. K. (2011). The external debt burden and economic growth in the 1980s: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 20(2): 307-318.
  • Froot, K. A. (1988). Buybacks, exit bonds, and the optimality of debt and liquidity relief. NBER Working Paper, 2675: 1-33.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P. (1977). Forecasting economic time series, New York: Academic Press.
  • Greene, W. H. (1997). Econometric analysis, 3rd Edition, New Jersey: Prentice Hall Internation.
  • Gürdal, T. ve Yavuz, H. (2015). Türkiye’de dış borçlanma-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi:1990-2013 dönemi. Maliye Dergisi, 168: 154-169.
  • Hoffman, B. & Reisen, H. (1991). Some evidence on debt-related determinants on investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries. Weltwirschafiliches Archiv, 127(2): 280-297.
  • Iyoha, M. A. (1999). External debt and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: An econometric study. AERC Research Paper, No:90, Nairobi, African Economic Research Consortium: 1-59.
  • Juselius, K. (2006). The cointegrated VAR model - Methodology and applications. Oxford University Press.
  • Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang: Some analytical notes. Journal of Development Economics, 29: 253-268.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2004). Applied time series econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mohd Daud, S. N. & Podivinsky, J. M. (2012). Revisiting the role of external debt in economic growth of developing countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(5): 968–993.
  • Morgan Stanley. (2013). Tales from the emerging world. [Available online at: https://www.morganstanley.com/public /Tales_from_the_Emerging_World_Fragile_Five.pdf], Retrieved on December 13, 2018.
  • Nurkse, R. (1971). The theory of development and the idea of balanced growth. In A. B. Mountjoy (Eds.), Developing the underdeveloped countries (pp. 115-128). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Okon, E. O. & Monday, O. I. (2017). Empirical and evidence-based investigation: External debt, poverty and economic growth nexus. International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 1(1): 37-47.
  • Pattillo, C., Poirson, H. & Ricci, L. (2002). External debt and growth. IMF Working Paper, WP/02/69: 1-49.
  • Reinhart, C. M. & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. The American Economic Review, 100(2): 573-578.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48.
  • Sims, C. A. (1972). Money, income and causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4): 540-552.
  • Warne, A. (2000) Lecture notes on structural vector autoregression. [Available online at: http:// texlips.hypermart.net/ download/lecture_notes.pdf] Retrieved on April 18, 2017.

The Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Fragile Five Countries

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 448 - 460, 26.06.2020

Öz

The inadequacy of the internal savings required for investments in developing countries pushes them to seek outsourcing and external borrowing. In this study, the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth has been examined by the VAR model for 1970-2018 period in Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey, which also called as “Fragile Five”. The direction of the relationship between the variables has been examined with the Granger causality test by using the generated VAR models. In order to support the causality test results, the dynamic relationships between variables has been analyzed with impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The findings obtained from the analysis are as follows: i) In Brazil, a unidirectional causality relationship from the GDP to the external debt stock has been found. Also, economic growth has a significant positive impact on external borrowing. ii) There is no statistically significant relationship between external debt stock and GDP in Indonesia and India. iii) In Turkey and South Africa, a unidirectional relationship from external debt stock to GDP has been found and it has been seen that external borrowing has a positive effect on growth in these countries.

Kaynakça

  • Awan, R. U., Anjum, A. & Rahim, S. (2015). An econometric analysis of determinants of external debt in Pakistan. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 5(4): 382-391.
  • Chaudhry, I. S., Iffat, S. & Farooq, F. (2017). Foreign direct investment, external debt and economic growth: Evidence from some selected developing countries. Review of Economics and Development Studies,3(2): 111-124.
  • Checherita, C. & Rother, P. (2010). The impact of high and growing gowernment debt on economic growth an empirical investigation for the Euro area. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No:1237: 1-42.
  • Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R. & Nguyen, T. Q. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/03/249: 1-20.
  • Çöğürcü, İ. ve Çoban, O. (2011). Dış borç büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1980-2009). KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(21): 133-149.
  • Darnell, A. C. (1990). Dictionary of econometrics. London: Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root., Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431.
  • Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S. & Startz, R. (1998). Macroeconomics. Seventh Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies.
  • Fosu, A. K. (2011). The external debt burden and economic growth in the 1980s: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 20(2): 307-318.
  • Froot, K. A. (1988). Buybacks, exit bonds, and the optimality of debt and liquidity relief. NBER Working Paper, 2675: 1-33.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P. (1977). Forecasting economic time series, New York: Academic Press.
  • Greene, W. H. (1997). Econometric analysis, 3rd Edition, New Jersey: Prentice Hall Internation.
  • Gürdal, T. ve Yavuz, H. (2015). Türkiye’de dış borçlanma-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi:1990-2013 dönemi. Maliye Dergisi, 168: 154-169.
  • Hoffman, B. & Reisen, H. (1991). Some evidence on debt-related determinants on investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries. Weltwirschafiliches Archiv, 127(2): 280-297.
  • Iyoha, M. A. (1999). External debt and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: An econometric study. AERC Research Paper, No:90, Nairobi, African Economic Research Consortium: 1-59.
  • Juselius, K. (2006). The cointegrated VAR model - Methodology and applications. Oxford University Press.
  • Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang: Some analytical notes. Journal of Development Economics, 29: 253-268.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2004). Applied time series econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Mohd Daud, S. N. & Podivinsky, J. M. (2012). Revisiting the role of external debt in economic growth of developing countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(5): 968–993.
  • Morgan Stanley. (2013). Tales from the emerging world. [Available online at: https://www.morganstanley.com/public /Tales_from_the_Emerging_World_Fragile_Five.pdf], Retrieved on December 13, 2018.
  • Nurkse, R. (1971). The theory of development and the idea of balanced growth. In A. B. Mountjoy (Eds.), Developing the underdeveloped countries (pp. 115-128). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Okon, E. O. & Monday, O. I. (2017). Empirical and evidence-based investigation: External debt, poverty and economic growth nexus. International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 1(1): 37-47.
  • Pattillo, C., Poirson, H. & Ricci, L. (2002). External debt and growth. IMF Working Paper, WP/02/69: 1-49.
  • Reinhart, C. M. & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. The American Economic Review, 100(2): 573-578.
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48.
  • Sims, C. A. (1972). Money, income and causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4): 540-552.
  • Warne, A. (2000) Lecture notes on structural vector autoregression. [Available online at: http:// texlips.hypermart.net/ download/lecture_notes.pdf] Retrieved on April 18, 2017.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Umut Akduğan 0000-0001-8659-541X

Nural Yıldız 0000-0002-4513-4737

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Haziran 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Şubat 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Akduğan, U., & Yıldız, N. (2020). The Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Fragile Five Countries. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(2), 448-460. https://doi.org/10.36362/gumus.683615