Estimation of the Investment Function for the Türkiye Economy: New Empirical Evidence from Period Including the Covid-19 Outbreak

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 79 - 89, 29.01.2025

Onur Çelik

Öz

The developments in recent years have given directions to scientific researches. One of them, this study attempted to determine the investment function for Türkiye economy. As addition to testing investment fuction, the study also aimed to appear information how Covid-19 outbreak effected investments in reference period which contained the latest years from 1990 through 2022 stemming from World Bank database. Following to applying unit root tests empirically, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method used to see long run relationship. According to results obtained thanks to ARDL method, reference model was valid and series in the model were co-integrated in the long and short run. In the short run, any shock was calculated as being disappeared and to equilibrium in third term (year). While interest rate was negative varible for investments –as expected-; no significant empirical result was found about the effect of the Covid-19 over investment. In the direction of results, firstly sensitive arrangements are recommended to policy-makers since coefficient elasticity of investment was quitely high. Additionally, monetary policy was seen to be required revisions against new economic conditions. Therefore low interest rate policy should be implemented in the shock periods provided that it sets up again by considering current situations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Investment, Türkiye economy, Interest rate, The Covid-19

Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Yatırım Fonksiyonun Tahmini: Kovid-19 Salgını İçeren Dönemden Yeni Ampirik Kanıtlar

Öz

Son yıllarda yaşanan gelişmeler bilimsel araştırmalara yön vermektedir. Bunlardan birisi olarak, bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için yatırım fonksiyonu tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada, Dünya Bankası veri tabanından elde edilen veriler ile 1990-2022 döneminde yatırım fonksiyonunun yanı sıra, Kovid-19 salgınının yatırımları nasıl etkilediği de araştırılmıştır. Ampirik olarak, birim kök testlerinin ardından uzun dönemli ilişkiyi görmek adına ARDL Sınır testinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, referans model geçerli olup, modeldeki seriler hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde eş bütünleşiktir. Kısa dönemde meydana gelen herhangi bir şokun üçüncü dönemde (yılda) ortadan kalktığı ve dengeye hareket ettiği görülmüştür. Faiz oranı yatırımlar açısından -beklenen doğrultuda- negatif bir değişken olarak bulunurken; Kovid-19'un yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisine ilişkin anlamlı bir ampirik sonuç bulunamamıştır. Sonuçlar doğrultusunda, yatırımın katsayı esnekliği oldukça yüksek olduğundan politika yapıcılara bu konuda öncelikle hassas ayarlamalar yapılması önerilmektedir. Ayrıca para politikasının yeni ekonomik koşullara göre yenilenme ihtiyacı olduğu da görülmüştür. Bu nedenle mevcut durumlar dikkate alınarak daha sonra yeniden düzenlenmesi kaydıyla şok dönemlerinde düşük faiz politikası uygulanmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yatırım, Türkiye ekonomisi, Faiz oranı, Kovid-19

Kaynakça

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