Araştırma Makalesi
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Somaliland Bölgesi (Somali) Yağışlarının Trend Analizi

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 48 - 62, 31.01.2018
https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.309268

Öz

Gerek artan nüfus gerekse sanayide hızlı ilerleme
suya olan ihtiyacı son derece önemli hale getirmiştir. Bu yüzden eldeki su
kaynaklarının optimum kullanılması ve yeni su kaynaklarının ortaya çıkarılması
gerekliliği, planlama çalışmalarının en önemli konularından biri haline
gelmiştir. Ancak çeşitli şartlardan dolayı oluşan ve varlığı pek çok bilim
adamı tarafından dile getirilen küresel iklim değişikliği bu planlamanın
yapılmasını zorlaştıran etmenlerdendir. Bu yüzden iklim değişikliği ve iklim
değişikliklerinin mevcut su kaynaklarını etkileyip etkilemediği sorusu
irdelenmeli ve kaynakların gelecekteki durumlarını nasıl etkileyeceği
araştırılmalıdır. Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliğinden en çok etkilenen
bölgelerden birisi olan ve Afrika’da bulunan Somali’nin Kuzeyindeki Somaliland
bölgesindeki aylık ve yıllık yağış verilerinin trendleri irdelenmiştir. Bu
irdelemede Mann-Kendall trend analizi, Şen grafik testi, Şen grafik testini baz
alan ve Saplıoğlu tarafından teklif edilen istatistiksel method kullanılmıştır.
Çalışmada bölgenin trendinin araştırılmasının yanı sıra trend testlerinin
benzerlikleri ve farklılıkları da irdelenmiştir. 

Kaynakça

  • Ageena, I., Macdonald, N. ve Morse, A., (2014). Variability of maximum and mean average temperature across Libya (1945–2009), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 117, 549-563.
  • Baria, S., Rahman, M., Hoqueb, M., & Hussain, M. (2016). Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh. Atmospheric Research, 176-177, 148-158.
  • Bayazıt, M. ve Önöz, B., (2007). To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? , Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(4), 611–624.
  • Chen, H., Guo, S., Xu, C. ve Singh, V. P., (2007). Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin, Journal of Hydrology, 344, 175-185.
  • ElNesr, M., Abu-Zreig, M. ve Alazba, A., (2010). Temperature trends and distribution the Arabian Peninsula, American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 6(2), 191–203.
  • Gocic, M. ve Trajkovic, S., (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182.
  • Gocic, M. ve Trajkovic, S., (2013). Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 1980-2010, Journal of Hydrology, 494, 32-42.
  • Goswami, B. venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. ve Xavier, P., (2006). Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314, 1442-1444.
  • Gregory, G., (1956). Regional variations in the trends of annual rainfall over the British Isles, The Geographical Journal, 122, 346-353.
  • Jagannathan, R. ve Parthasarathy, B., (1973). Trends and periodick citiles of rainfall over India, Monthly Weather Review, 101, 371-375.
  • Karmesha, N., (2012). Trend detection in annual temperature ve precipitation using the Mann-Kendall test, Northeastern United States: Master of Environmental Studies Capstone Project.
  • Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J., & Thurner, K. (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374, 171–183.
  • Mohamed, Y. ve Saavaenije, H. G., (2014). Impact of climate variability on the hydrology of the Sudd wetland: signals derived from long term (1900–2000) water balance computations, Wetlands Ecology and Management, 22, 191–198.
  • Nasrallah, H. ve Balling, R., (1995). Impact of desertification on temperature trends in the Middle East, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 37, 265-271.
  • Partal, T. ve Kahya, E., (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrological Proceses, 20, 2011-2026.
  • Parthasarathy, B. ve Dhar, O., (1974). Secular variations of the rainfallover India, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 100, 245-257.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., (2015). A New methodology for trend analysis: A case study in Burdur and Isparta, Turkey, Fresenius environmental Bulletin, 24(10a), 3344-3351.
  • Satyamurty, P., Anderson de Castro, A., Tota, J., Gularte, L. ve Manzi, A., (2010). Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades, Theor Appl Climatol (2010) 99:139–148, 99, 139-148.
  • Singh., P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T. ve Arora, M., (2008). Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, Hydrological Processes, 22(16), 2982–2992.
  • Suzuki, E., (1968). Secular variations of the rainfall in Japan, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 363-399.
  • Şen, Z., (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
  • Şen, Z., (2014). Trend Identification Simulation and Application, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
  • Tabari, H., Somoe, B. ve Zadeh, M. R., (2011). Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran, Atmospheric Research, 100, 132-140.
  • Trajkovic, S. ve Kolakovic, S., (2009). Wind-adjusted Turc equation for estimating reference, Hydrology Research, 40(1), 45-52.
  • Wang, S., Zhu, J. ve Cai, J., (2004). Interdecadal variability of temperature and precipitation in China since 1880, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 21(3), 307–313.
  • Wikivoyage., (2015). Somaliland. 10 01, 2015 tarihinde https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Somaliland adresinden alındı
  • Yue, S. ve Hashino, M., (2003). Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39, 587-596.
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P. ve Cavadias, G., (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P. ve Cavadias, G., (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.

Trend Analysis of Somaliland Region Precipitation, Somalia

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 48 - 62, 31.01.2018
https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.309268

Öz

Both the population increase and the rapid advance in the industry have
made the need for water very important. Hence the optimum usage of available
water resources and the necessity for uncovering new water resources have
become the most important issues of planning exercises. But, the global climate
change which is occured because of various conditions and expressed by many
scientists is one of the factors that makes this planning difficult.  So the climate change and the question of
whether climate change affect the available water springs  or not must be inquired and also how it
affects the water availability of the springs in the future must  be investigated. In this study, monthly and
annual rain fall data was examinated in the region of Somaliland where is
placing on the Northern part of Somalia in Africa's one of the most affected
regions. In this study, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Sen's graphic test and the
statistical method based on Sen's graphic test that is proposed by Saplioglu
are used. In the study, the trend of the region was investigated and trend
tests compared.

Kaynakça

  • Ageena, I., Macdonald, N. ve Morse, A., (2014). Variability of maximum and mean average temperature across Libya (1945–2009), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 117, 549-563.
  • Baria, S., Rahman, M., Hoqueb, M., & Hussain, M. (2016). Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh. Atmospheric Research, 176-177, 148-158.
  • Bayazıt, M. ve Önöz, B., (2007). To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? , Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(4), 611–624.
  • Chen, H., Guo, S., Xu, C. ve Singh, V. P., (2007). Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin, Journal of Hydrology, 344, 175-185.
  • ElNesr, M., Abu-Zreig, M. ve Alazba, A., (2010). Temperature trends and distribution the Arabian Peninsula, American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 6(2), 191–203.
  • Gocic, M. ve Trajkovic, S., (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182.
  • Gocic, M. ve Trajkovic, S., (2013). Analysis of precipitation and drought data in Serbia over the period 1980-2010, Journal of Hydrology, 494, 32-42.
  • Goswami, B. venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. ve Xavier, P., (2006). Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314, 1442-1444.
  • Gregory, G., (1956). Regional variations in the trends of annual rainfall over the British Isles, The Geographical Journal, 122, 346-353.
  • Jagannathan, R. ve Parthasarathy, B., (1973). Trends and periodick citiles of rainfall over India, Monthly Weather Review, 101, 371-375.
  • Karmesha, N., (2012). Trend detection in annual temperature ve precipitation using the Mann-Kendall test, Northeastern United States: Master of Environmental Studies Capstone Project.
  • Kumar, S., Merwade, V., Kam, J., & Thurner, K. (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374, 171–183.
  • Mohamed, Y. ve Saavaenije, H. G., (2014). Impact of climate variability on the hydrology of the Sudd wetland: signals derived from long term (1900–2000) water balance computations, Wetlands Ecology and Management, 22, 191–198.
  • Nasrallah, H. ve Balling, R., (1995). Impact of desertification on temperature trends in the Middle East, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 37, 265-271.
  • Partal, T. ve Kahya, E., (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrological Proceses, 20, 2011-2026.
  • Parthasarathy, B. ve Dhar, O., (1974). Secular variations of the rainfallover India, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 100, 245-257.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., (2015). A New methodology for trend analysis: A case study in Burdur and Isparta, Turkey, Fresenius environmental Bulletin, 24(10a), 3344-3351.
  • Satyamurty, P., Anderson de Castro, A., Tota, J., Gularte, L. ve Manzi, A., (2010). Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades, Theor Appl Climatol (2010) 99:139–148, 99, 139-148.
  • Singh., P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T. ve Arora, M., (2008). Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, Hydrological Processes, 22(16), 2982–2992.
  • Suzuki, E., (1968). Secular variations of the rainfall in Japan, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 19, 363-399.
  • Şen, Z., (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
  • Şen, Z., (2014). Trend Identification Simulation and Application, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(3), 635-642.
  • Tabari, H., Somoe, B. ve Zadeh, M. R., (2011). Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran, Atmospheric Research, 100, 132-140.
  • Trajkovic, S. ve Kolakovic, S., (2009). Wind-adjusted Turc equation for estimating reference, Hydrology Research, 40(1), 45-52.
  • Wang, S., Zhu, J. ve Cai, J., (2004). Interdecadal variability of temperature and precipitation in China since 1880, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 21(3), 307–313.
  • Wikivoyage., (2015). Somaliland. 10 01, 2015 tarihinde https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Somaliland adresinden alındı
  • Yue, S. ve Hashino, M., (2003). Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39, 587-596.
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P. ve Cavadias, G., (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.
  • Yue, S., Pilon, P. ve Cavadias, G., (2002). Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Journal of Hydrology, 259, 254-271.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Kemal Saplıoğlu

Abdishakur Osman Dahir

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Nisan 2017
Kabul Tarihi 24 Ekim 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Saplıoğlu, K., & Dahir, A. O. (2018). Somaliland Bölgesi (Somali) Yağışlarının Trend Analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(1), 48-62. https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.309268