Serisel Korelasyonun Toplam Zenit Gecikmesi Zaman Serilerinde Parametrik Olmayan Trend Belirleme Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 180 - 188, 15.01.2019

Cansu Beşel Emine Tanır Kayıkçı

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.417853

Öz

GNSS
gözlemlerinin analizinden elde edilen toplam zenit gecikmesi (ZTD) hava
şartlarının belirlenmesinde önemli bir parametre olması sebebiyle GNSS
tekniğinin iklimsel çalışmalarda da önemli bir yeri vardır. ZTD verilerinden
oluşturulan zaman serilerinin trend analizi ile, uzun dönemlerde veride meydana
gelen değişimler incelenebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ve Avrupa’dan
seçilen 10 adet IGS (Uluslararası GNSS Servisi) istasyonu için 1995-2010
yılları arasındaki ZTD ürünlerinin COST Aksiyonu ES1206, GNSS4SWEC (Advanced Global Navigation Satellite
Systems Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate)
kapsamında yeniden kestirimi ile elde edilmiş (IGS Repro1) verileri
kullanılarak oluşurulan zaman serilerindeki trend ve serisel korelasyon etkisi
belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Trend analizinde parametrik olmayan yöntemlerden
Mann-Kendall testi kullanılmıştır. Serisel korelasyonu belirlemek için
otokorelasyon katsayısı hesaplanmış olup seriyi korelasyondan arındırmak için
Trend-Free Prewhitening yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Korelasyondan arındırılan seriye
tekrar trend analizi yapılarak serisel korelasyonun trendin belirlenmesi üzerindeki
etkisi ve Trend-Free Prewhitening yönteminin performansı üzerine irdelemeler
yapılmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada IGS istasyonlarındaki ZTD verilerinin
tümünde anlamlı serisel korelasyonlar elde edilmiştir. Aynı zamanda LAMA, ONSA
ve PENC istasyonlarında Trend-Free Prewhitening uygulandıktan sonra trend
olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında uygulanan yöntemlerle ilgili
hesaplamalar MATLAB program kodları kullanılarak yapılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mann-Kendall Testi, Serisel Korelasyon, Trend, Trend-Free Prewhitening, Toplam Zenit Gecikmesi

The Effect of Serial Correlation on Nonparametric Trend Determination at Zenith Total Delay Time Series

Öz

GNSS
technique is important in climate studies because of obtaining Zenith Total
Delay which is significant parameter to determine weather conditions with
analysis of GNSS observations. Interchanges of long term data can be detected
via trend analysis produced by ZTD time series data. In this study, trend and
serial correlation effect of time series of (IGS Repro1) were investigated
using between 1995-2010 reprocessed ZTD data in the framework of COST Action
ES1206, GNSS4SWEC (Advanced Global Navigation Satellite Systems Tropospheric
Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate). Mann-Kendall test
was performed for nonparametric method. 
The autocorrelation coefficient was calculated to set the serial
correlation. Trend-Free Prewhitening method has been applied to eliminate the
correlation. The effect on the trend determination of serial correlation and
the performance of Trend-Free Prewhitening method were tried to made
examination by making re-trend analysis in series which eliminated correlation.
As a result of the performed methods, serial correlation is substantial whole
ZTD data. At the same time, there are trends in LAMA, ONSA and PENC stations
after applying Trend-Free Prewhitening. In this work, MATLAB programming
language was handled in all of the tests.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mann-Kendall Test, Serial Correlation, Trend, Trend-Free Prewhitening, Zenith Total Delay

Kaynakça

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