NARX Modellerini Kullanarak Hava Kalitesi Tahmin Analizinin Uygulanması

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 442 - 455, 15.04.2020

Yelda Fırat

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.605649

Öz

Hava
kalite yönetimi ve tahmini çevre sorunlarında hayati derecede önemli bir rol
oynamaktadır. Hava kalitesi sorununun insan sağlığı ve yaşam kalitesi ile
doğrudan ilişkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Bu sorunu çözmek için, literatürde kullanılan
bazı alışılagelmiş metotlar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışma yeni doğrusal olmayan
özbağlanımlı dışsal model yöntemini işlemektedir. Bu yöntemde tüm hava kalitesi
parametreleri dört farklı yer bakımından sisteme girilmektedir. Bunlar Çanakkale
Merkez ve Çan, Lapseki ve Biga ilçeleridir. Oluşturulan bu model, hava kalite
istasyonları için Nitrik oksit (NO), Nitrojen oksit (NO₂), Nitrojen oksitler
(NO_X) ve Ozon (O₃) gibi bazı ölçülmeyen çevresel kirletici
parametrelerin elde edilmesi ve ayıklanmasını sağlamaktadır. Bu istasyonlarda,
Çanakkale Merkez hava kalitesi izleme istasyonu sadece Partikül madde (PM₁₀)
ve Sülfür dioksit (SO₂) parametrelerini ölçerken, diğerleri PM₁₀,
PM_2.5, SO₂, NO, NO₂, NO_X
ve O₃ parametrelerini ölçmektedir. Sunulan sayısal yöntem sonuçları,
ölçüm sonuçları ve çıkarılan ivme hatası ile doğrulanmaktadır. Bu sayısal
sonuçlar Çanakkale Merkez için dikkate alınmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar,
öngörülen parametre değerlerinin çok başarılı olduğunu ve hata ivmesinin çok
düşük olduğunu göstermektedir. Öğrenme sürecinin başarısı %90'nın üzerindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hava Kalitesi, Çanakkale, Hava Tahmini, NARX

Application of the Air Quality Forecasting Analysis Using NARX Models

Öz

Air quality management and forecasting play a
crucially important role in environmental problems. It is known that air
quality problem is directly related to the quality of life and human health. In
order to solve this problem, there are some conventional forecasting methods
used in the literature. This paper presents a new non-linear autoregressive
exogenous model method. In this method, all air quality parameters are entered into
the system for four different locations. These are Çanakkale Central and the
districts of Çan, Lapseki and Biga. This created model provides obtaining and
extracting of some unmeasured environmental pollutant parameters for other air
quality stations such as Nitric oxide (NO),
Nitrogen oxide (NO₂), Nitrogen oxides (NO_X) and Ozone (O₃).
Within these stations, the Çanakkale Central air quality monitoring station
measures only Particulate
matter (PM₁₀) and Sulfur dioxide (SO₂)
parameters while others measure the parameters of PM₁₀, PM_2.5,
SO₂, NO, NO₂, NO_X and O₃. Presented
numerical model results are verified with measurement results and extracted
acceleration error. These numerical results are realized for Çanakkale Central.
Obtained results show that the forecasted parameter values are very successful
and error acceleration is very low. The success of the learning process is over
90%.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Air Quality, Çanakkale, Forecasting, NARX

Kaynakça

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