Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ndeki aylık toplam tava buharlaşma verilerinin Mann-Kendall Testi ve Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi ile trend analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 4, 1059 - 1070, 15.10.2021

Yavuz Avşaroğlu , Veysel Gümüş , Oğuz Şimşek , Latif Doğan Dinsever , Mehmet Kuş

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.908615

Öz

Buharlaşma miktarındaki değişimin doğru bilinmesi, su kaynaklarının yönetimi, su ile ilgili yapıların tasarlanması ve su eylem planlarının hazırlanması için önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin önemli tarımsal alanlarını barındıran Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ndeki Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa ve Mardin istasyonlarına ait aylık toplam tava buharlaşması verilerinin trendleri, parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK) testi ve Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi (Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) ile, lineer trend eğimleri ise Sen’in trend eğim metodu ile belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, MK testine göre hesaplanan değerlere göre anlamlı trend sadece Şanlıurfa istasyonunda, mayıs ve eylül aylarında %95 güven aralığında, ekim ayında ise %90 güven aralığında artan yönde belirlenmiş ve bu istasyonda lineer trend eğim değerlerine göre en yüksek artış miktarı mayıs ayında %0.98/yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. ITA yöntemine göre yapılan hesaplar sonucunda düşük, orta ve yüksek değerlerde trend varlığına rastlanmıştır. ITA yönteminin hesaplama kolaylığı, sonuçları grafiksel olarak verme yeteneği ile monotonik trend analizi yöntemlerine alternatif olarak kullanılabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi, Mann-Kendall, Tava buharlaşması, Trend analizi, Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi

Trend analysis of monthly total pan evaporation data of Southeast Anatolia Region with Mann-Kendall Test and Innovative Sen Method

Öz

Determining the change in the amount of evaporation is important for water resources management, design of water structures and preparing water action plans. In this study, trends of total monthly pan evaporation data for Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa and Mardin stations located as Southeastern Anatolia Region, which is important agricultural area of Turkey, are carried out using non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods. The linear trend slope is determined with Sen's slope method. As a result of the study, the significant increasing trend is found with MK test in May and September at 95% confidence level and in October at 90% confidence level. The highest increase in this station according to the linear trend slope values is calculated 0.98%/year. As a result of analysis with ITA method, there is a trend occurrence in low, medium, and high values. It is concluded that ITA method can be used as an alternative method to monotonic trend analysis methods, since its ease of calculation and its ability to give results graphically.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Southeastern Anatolia Region, Mann-Kendall, Tan evaporation, Trend analysis, Innovative trend analysis

Kaynakça

• Alashan, S. (2020). Combination of modified Mann‐Kendall method and Şen innovative trend analysis. Engineering Reports, 2(3), e12131. https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12131
• Alifujiang, Y., Abuduwaili, J. and Ge, Y. (2021). Trend analysis of annual and seasonal river runoff by using Innovative Trend Analysis with significant test. Water, 13(1), 95. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13010095
• Alifujiang, Y., Abuduwaili, J., Maihemuti, B., Emin, B. and Groll, M. (2020). Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan. Atmosphere, 11(4), 332. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040332
• Arslan, O. (2019). Kapadokya Bölgesi'nin yaz ayları buharlaşma verileri için trend analizi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(2), 948-953. https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.598070
• Asadi, M. and Karami, M. (2021). Modeling of relative humidity trends in Iran. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01093-9
• Ay, M. and Kisi, O. (2015). Investigation of trend analysis of monthly total precipitation by an innovative method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(3), 617-629. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1198-8
• Aydın, F. ve Topaloğlu, F. (2010). Türkiye buharlaşma verilerinin gidiş analizi. ÇÜ Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 22(2), 174-184.
• Bacanlı, Ü. G. ve Çukurluoğlu, S. (2018). Antalya ilinin bazı meteorolojik verilerinin trend analizi. SETSCI Conference Indexing System, 2, 371-375
• Bacanlı, Ü. G. ve Tanrıkulu, A. (2017). Ege Bölgesinde buharlaşma verilerinin trend analizi. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 17(3), 980-987. https://doi.org/10.5578/fmbd.66282
• Bağdatlı, M. C. and Arıkan, E. N. (2020). Evaluation of maximum and total open surface evaporation by using trend analysis method in Nigde Province of Turkey. International Journal, 6(1), 138-145. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3890231
• Boudiaf, B., Şen, Z. and Boutaghane, H. (2021). Climate change impact on rainfall in north-eastern Algeria using innovative trend analyses (ITA). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14(6), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06644-z
• Bruton, J., Hoogenboom, G. and McClendon, R. (2000). Acomparison of automatically and manually collected pan evaporation data. Transactions of the ASAE, 43(5), 1097. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.3002
• Brutsaert, W. (1982). Evaporation into the atmosphere: Theory. History, and Applications, 1: Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1497-6
• Burn, D. H. and Hesch, N. M. (2007). Trends in evaporation for the Canadian Prairies. Journal of hydrology, 336(1-2), 61-73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.12.011
• Caloiero, T. (2020). Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 139(1), 493-504. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02988-5
• Chen, Y., Guan, Y., Shao, G. and Zhang, D. (2016). Investigating trends in streamflow and precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin with wavelet analysis and the Mann-Kendall test. Water, 8(3), 77. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8030077
• Çıtakoğlu, H., Geyikli, S. ve Demir, V. (2017). Ege Bölgesi yaz ayları buharlaşma verilerine trend analizi. 5. Uluslararası Katılımlı Toprak ve Su Kaynakları Kongresi
• Gumus, V. (2019). Spatio‐temporal precipitation and temperature trend analysis of the Seyhan–Ceyhan River Basins, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 26(3), 369-384. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1768
• Hassan, A., Ismail, S. S., Elmoustafa, A. and Khalaf, S. (2018). Evaluating evaporation rate from high Aswan Dam Reservoir using RS and GIS techniques. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 21(3), 285-293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2017.10.001
• IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Geneva: IPCC.
• Jhajharia, D., Shrivastava, S., Sarkar, D. and Sarkar, S. (2009). Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149(5), 763-770. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.10.024
• Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Seneviratne, S. I., Sheffield, J., Goulden, M. L. And De Jeu, R. (2010). Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, 467(7318), 951-954. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09396
• Kale, S. (2017). Analysis of climatic trends in evaporation for Çanakkale (Turkey). Middle East Journal of Science, 3(2), 69-82. https://doi.org/10.23884/mejs.2017.3.2.01
• Kendall, M. G. (1948). Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin.
• Kisi, O. (2015). An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations. Journal of hydrology, 527, 1123-1129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.009
• Kuriqi, A., Ali, R., Pham, Q. B., Gambini, J. M., Gupta, V., Malik, A. and Dong, X. (2020). Seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in central India. Acta Geophysica, 68(5), 1461-1475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00475-4
• Limjirakan, S. and Limsakul, A. (2012). Trends in Thailand pan evaporation from 1970 to 2007. Atmospheric research, 108, 122-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.01.010
• Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 245-259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
• Menzel, L. and Bürger, G. (2002). Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). Journal of hydrology, 267(1-2), 53-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00139-7
• Nisansala, W., Abeysingha, N., Islam, A. and Bandara, A. (2020). Recent rainfall trend over Sri Lanka (1987–2017). International Journal of Climatology, 40(7), 3417-3435. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6405
• Nourani, V., Mehr, A. D. and Azad, N. (2018). Trend analysis of hydroclimatological variables in Urmia lake basin using hybrid wavelet Mann–Kendall and Şen tests. Environmental Earth Sciences, 77(5), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7390-x
• Oguntunde, P. G., Abiodun, B. J., Olukunle, O. J. and Olufayo, A. A. (2012). Trends and variability in pan evaporation and other climatic variables at Ibadan, Nigeria, 1973–2008. Meteorological Applications, 19(4), 464-472. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.281
• Salas, J. D. (1980). Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Colorado:Water Resources Publication. Sandalcı, M. (2019). Sapanca Gölünde buharlaşmanın trend analizi. 4. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Kongresi, Yalova.
• Sayyad, R., Dakhore, K. And Phad, S. (2019). Analysis of rainfall trend of Parbhani, Maharshtra using Mann–Kendall test. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
• Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American statistical association, 63(324), 1379-1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
• Singh, D., Kumar, A., Goyal, V., Arora, M. and Allaka, N. (2020). Temporal characteristics of evaporation trends and their attribution to meteorological drivers in Roorkee (India). Authorea Preprints. https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158931107.75237406
• Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
• Topaloğlu, F., Özfidaner, M. and Aydin, F. (2012). Regional trends in Turkish pan evaporation. Journal of Food, Agriculture & Environment, 10(3&4), 960-962.
• Tosunoglu, F. and Kisi, O. (2017). Trend analysis of maximum hydrologic drought variables using Mann–Kendall and Şen's innovative trend method. River Research and Applications, 33(4), 597-610. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3106
• TÜİK (2020). Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, 2020. Erişim adresi https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Adrese-Dayali-Nufus-Kayit-Sistemi-Sonuclari-2020-37210
• Wu, H. and Qian, H. (2017). Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s. International Journal of Climatology, 37(5), 2582-2592. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4866
• Yagbasan, O., Demir, V. and Yazicigil, H. (2020). Trend analyses of meteorological variables and lake levels for two shallow lakes in Central Turkey. Water, 12(2), 414. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020414
• Yenigün, K., Gümüş, V. and Bulut, H. (2008). Trends in streamflow of the Euphrates basin, Turkey. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management. https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2008.161.4.189
• Yeşilırmak, E. (2013). Temporal changes of warm-season pan evaporation in a semi-arid basin in Western Turkey. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 27(2), 311-321. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0605-x