Estimating pedestrian travel demands based on neighborhood characteristics

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 359 - 372, 15.04.2023

Çağdaş Kara

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.1099142

Öz

The importance given to transportation investments all over the world is increasing day by day. Therefore, effective planning plays an important role in both new transportation investments and improvement of the existing transportation system. In transportation planning, one of the main goals for sustainable urbanization and sustainable mobility is to provide a transportation system that gives priority to pedestrian and public transportation. In this context, in many developed and developing countries, especially pedestrian safety is prioritized and practices and studies are developed. Accordingly, the use of environment- and pedestrian-friendly transportation systems is being expanded. Pedestrian characteristics and behaviors should be examined first in order to develop practices and policies that encourage pedestrian travel. In this study, socio-economic and demographic characteristics that affect other-purpose (socializing, entertainment, shopping, banking, sports, etc.) pedestrian travel behaviors are investigated. In this context, characteristics of 50 neighborhoods and approximately 21000 household surveys were used. With the help of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Ridge Regression (RR) and Liu Regression methods, models explaining the changes in the frequency of pedestrian travel for other purposes were produced. Three methods were evaluated in terms of Mean Squares of Error (HKO), Akaike Infırmation Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). All three criterias showed that the RR produced more successful model. According to HKO, the RR and Liu models were found to be approximately 35% and 27% more successful than the MLR model, respectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demand forecast, Transportation planning, Pedestrian trips, Regularization techniques

Yaya yolculuk taleplerinin mahalle karakteristiklerine dayalı tahmini

Öz

Tüm dünyada ulaştırma yatırımlarına verilen önem her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bu nedenle, etkin planlama gerek yeni ulaşım yatırımlarında gerekse mevcut ulaşım sisteminin iyileştirilmesinde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Ulaşım planlamasında, sürdürülebilir kentleşme ve sürdürülebilir hareketliliğin sağlanması için temel hedeflerden biri; yaya ve toplu taşıma öncelikli bir ulaşım sisteminin sağlanması olarak gösterilmektedir. Bu kapsamda birçok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkede, özellikle yaya güvenliği ön planda tutulup, bunlarla ilgili uygulama ve çalışmalar geliştirilerek, çevre ve yaya dostu ulaşım sistemlerinin kullanımı yaygınlaştırılmaktadır. Yaya olarak seyahate teşvik edici uygulamalar ve politikalar geliştirilebilmek için öncelikle yaya karakteristikleri ve davranışları incelenmelidir. Bu çalışmada, diğer (sosyalleşme, eğlence, alışveriş, banka, spor, vb.) amaçlı yaya yolculuk davranışlarını etkileyen sosyo-ekonomik ve demografik karakteristikler araştırılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda 50 mahalleye ait karakteristikler ve toplamda yaklaşık 21000 hane halkı anketi kullanılmıştır. Çoklu Doğrusal Regresyon (ÇDR), Ridge Regresyonu (RR) ve Liu Regresyonu yöntemleriyle diğer amaçlı yaya yolculuk sıklığındaki değişimleri öngören modeller üretilmiştir. Üç yöntem, Hata Kareler Ortalaması (HKO), Akaike Bilgi Kriteri (ABK) ve Bayes Bilgi Kriteri (BBK) açısından değerlendirilmiştir. Her üç başarı ölçütü de RR’nin daha başarılı model ürettiğini göstermiştir. HKO’ya göre, RR ve Liu modellerinin ÇDR modeline kıyasla, sırasıyla yaklaşık %35 ve %27 daha başarılı olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Talep tahmini, Ulaşım planlaması, Yaya yolculukları, Yanlı tahmin teknikleri

Kaynakça

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