PETROL FİYATLARININ CARİ AÇIK ÜZERİNDEKİ EŞİK ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 20, 42 - 51, 31.12.2021

Dinçer Dedeoğlu

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2003.1 - 2019:12 arası dönem için aylık Türkiye verisi kullanılarak petrol fiyatlarının cari açık üzerindeki eşik etkilerinin varlığı, eşik regresyon modeli kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Tahmin sonuçları, petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye'deki cari açık üzerindeki eşik etkilerinin varlığına dair bulgular ortaya koymaktadır. Petrol fiyatının tahmin edilen eşik değerinin üzerinde olması petrol fiyat enflasyonunun cari açık üzerinde bozucu etkiler ortaya çıkarmasına neden olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol fiyatları, cari açık, eşik regresyon modeli, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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