Türkiye’de Turizm Faaliyetlerini Belirleyen Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Öz

Turizm ülkelerin çeşitli göstergelerinden etkilenen ve çeşitli göstergelerini etkileyen bir faaliyettir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’nin turizm faaliyetlerini etkileyen makroekonomik değişkenlerin belirlenmesidir. Bu doğrultuda 1996:1–2016:1 dönemi Yapısal VAR Analizi ile Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonlarının yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan makroekonomik değişkenler literatür dikkate alınarak araştırılmış ve gelen uluslararası turist sayısı, reel kişi başına düşen milli gelir, tüketici fiyat endeksi, reel efektif döviz kuru, politik istikrar, jeopolitik risk indeksi ve kişi başına düşen karbondioksit miktarı şeklinde belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, gelen uluslararası turist sayısının milli geliri, karbondioksit emisyonunu, politik istikrarı ve jeopolitik risk endeksini etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bunun yanı sıra ülkeye gelen uluslararası turist sayısının milli gelir, politik istikrar, karbondioksit emisyonu miktarından etkilendiği, jeopolitik risk endeksinden etkilenmediği tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönemde enflasyon ve döviz kuru ile gelen uluslararası turist sayısı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• Milli Gelir
• Yapısal VAR Analizi
• Etki Tepki Fonksiyonu
• Türkiye

Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Determining Tourism Activities in Turkey

Öz

Tourism is an activity that is affected by various indicators of a country's performance and affects various indicators. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the macroeconomic variables that affect tourism activities in Turkey. For this purpose, the period 1996:1–2016:1 is examined with Structural VAR Analysis and Impact-Response Functions. The macroeconomic variables used in the study were investigated by considering the literature and were determined as the number of international tourists, real per capita national income, consumer price index, real effective exchange rate, political stability, geopolitical risk index and per capita carbon dioxide emission. The findings show that the number of international tourists affects the national income, carbon dioxide emissions, political stability and geopolitical risk index. In addition, it has been found that the national income, political stability, carbon dioxide emission affects the number of international tourists but affect the geopolitical risk index do not. In the short run, no statistically significant relationship could be found between inflation and exchange rate and the number of international tourists.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism
• National Income
• Structural VAR Analysis
• Impact Response Function
• Turkey

Kaynakça

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