Türkiye’de Turizm Faaliyetlerini Belirleyen Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Yıl 2022, , 369 - 388, 29.09.2022

Asiye Tütüncü

https://doi.org/10.32572/guntad.1031521

Cited By: 2

Öz

Turizm ülkelerin çeşitli göstergelerinden etkilenen ve çeşitli göstergelerini etkileyen bir faaliyettir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’nin turizm faaliyetlerini etkileyen makroekonomik değişkenlerin belirlenmesidir. Bu doğrultuda 1996:1–2016:1 dönemi Yapısal VAR Analizi ile Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonlarının yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan makroekonomik değişkenler literatür dikkate alınarak araştırılmış ve gelen uluslararası turist sayısı, reel kişi başına düşen milli gelir, tüketici fiyat endeksi, reel efektif döviz kuru, politik istikrar, jeopolitik risk indeksi ve kişi başına düşen karbondioksit miktarı şeklinde belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, gelen uluslararası turist sayısının milli geliri, karbondioksit emisyonunu, politik istikrarı ve jeopolitik risk endeksini etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bunun yanı sıra ülkeye gelen uluslararası turist sayısının milli gelir, politik istikrar, karbondioksit emisyonu miktarından etkilendiği, jeopolitik risk endeksinden etkilenmediği tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönemde enflasyon ve döviz kuru ile gelen uluslararası turist sayısı arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm, Milli Gelir, Yapısal VAR Analizi, Etki Tepki Fonksiyonu, Türkiye

Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Determining Tourism Activities in Turkey

Öz

Tourism is an activity that is affected by various indicators of a country's performance and affects various indicators. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the macroeconomic variables that affect tourism activities in Turkey. For this purpose, the period 1996:1–2016:1 is examined with Structural VAR Analysis and Impact-Response Functions. The macroeconomic variables used in the study were investigated by considering the literature and were determined as the number of international tourists, real per capita national income, consumer price index, real effective exchange rate, political stability, geopolitical risk index and per capita carbon dioxide emission. The findings show that the number of international tourists affects the national income, carbon dioxide emissions, political stability and geopolitical risk index. In addition, it has been found that the national income, political stability, carbon dioxide emission affects the number of international tourists but affect the geopolitical risk index do not. In the short run, no statistically significant relationship could be found between inflation and exchange rate and the number of international tourists.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism, National Income, Structural VAR Analysis, Impact Response Function, Turkey

Kaynakça

• Al-Mulali, U., Fereidouni, H. G. ve Mohammed, A. H. (2015). The effect of tourism arrival on CO2 emissions from transportation sector. Anatolia, 26(2), 230-243.
• Akadiri, S. S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C. and Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273-277.
• Akadiri, S. S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G. ve Akadiri, A. C. (2018). Examining the causal impacts of tourism, globalization, economic growth and carbon emissions in tourism island territories: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 1–15.
• Aydın, A., Darıcı, B. ve Taşçı, H. M. (2015). Uluslararası turizm talebini etkileyen ekonomik faktörler: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 45, 143-177.
• Balli, E., Sigeze, C., Manga, M., Birdir, S. ve Birdir, K. (2019). The relationship between tourism, CO2 emissions and economic growth: A case of Mediterranean countries, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(3), 219-232.
• Balli, F., Uddin, G.S., ve Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997-1005.
• Bassil, C., Saleh, A.S. ve Anwar, S. (2019). Terrorism and tourism demand: A case study of Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(1), 50-70.
• Bento, J. P. C. (2014). The determinants of international academic tourism demand in Europe. Tourism Economics, 20(3), 611-628.
• Bernanke, B. (1986). Alternative Explanation of the Money Income Correlations. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25.
• Blanchard, O. J. ve Quah, D. (1993). The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. American Economic Review, 79, 655-73.
• Blanchard, O. J. ve Watson, M. W. (1986). Are Business Cycles All Alike?. R. Gordon (Ed.), içinde The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (s. 123-156). NBER and University of Chicago Press.
• Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I. ve Pulina, M. (2016) Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430.
• Bulut, U., Koçak, E. ve Suess, C. (2019). The effect of freedom on international tourism demand: Empirical evidence from the top eight most visited countries. Tourism Economics, 1–16.
• Caldara, D. ve Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1222.
• Chasapopoulos, P., Butter, F. A. G. ve Mihaylov, E. (2014). Demand for tourism in Greece: A panel data analysis using the Gravity Model. Int. J. Tourism Policy, 5(3), 173-191.
• Deluna Jr, R. ve Jeon, N. (2014). Determinants of international tourism demand for the Philippines: An augmented Gravity Model approach. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-20.
• Demir, E., Gozgor, G. ve Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do geopolitical risks matter for inbound tourism? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183-191.
• Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H. ve Lau, C. K. M. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23-26.
• Efeoğlu, R. (2021). Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebinin makroekonomik belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi. Ş. Karabulut (Ed.), içinde İktisadi, Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Turizm (s. 57-66).
• Ersungur, Ş. M., Doru, Ö. ve Aslan, M. B. (2017). Türkiye’ye Yönelik Uluslararası Turizm Talebinin Sosyo-Ekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analiz. In: International Conference on Eurasian Economies, ss. 433-441.
• Eyuboglu, K. ve Uzar, U. (2020). The impact of tourism on CO2 emission in Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(13), 1631-1645.
• Fourie, J. ve Santana-Gallego, M. (2013). The determinants of African tourism. Development Southern Africa, 3(3), 347-366.
• Gozgor, G., Demir, E. ve Bilgin, M. H. (2017). The effects of the military in politics on the inbound tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(8), 885-893.
• Görmüş, İ. ve Göçer, Ş. (2010). Türkiye’ye Yönelik Turizm Talebini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Panel Veri Yöntemiyle Analiz Edilmesi. Ulusal Turizm Kongresi Kuşadası, ss. 44-57.
• Habibi, F. (2017) The determinants of inbound tourism to Malaysia: A panel data analysis, Current Issues in Tourism, 20(9), 909-930.
• Haddad, C., Nasr, A., Ghida, H. ve Ibrahim, H. (2015). How to Re-Emerge as a Tourism Destination after a Periodof Political Instability: The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report. R. C. Tiffany (Ed.), içinde World Economic Forum (53-57).
• Hasan, M., Naeem, M., Arif, M., Shahzad, S. J. H. ve Nor, S. M. (2020). Geopolitical risk and tourism stocks of emerging economies. Sustainability, 12(21), 1-21.
• Hepsag, A. (2016). Testing convergence of tourism markets: evidence from seasonal unit roots test. Anatolia, 27(2), 177-188.
• Ibrahim, M. A. (2011). The determinants of international tourism demand for Egypt: Panel data evidence. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 30, 50-58.
• Im, K.S., ve Schmidt, P. (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual-augmented least squares. J Econom, 144, 219–233.
• Im, K. S., Lee, J. ve Tieslau, M. (2014). More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Nonnormal Errors. Robin C. Sickles and William C. Horrace (Ed.), içinde Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt Econometric Methods and Application (s. 315-342).
• Jiang, Y., Tian, G., Wu, Y. Ve Mo, B. (2020). Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock. Int J Fin Econ, 1–14.
• Kilian, L. ve Lütkepohl, H. (2017). Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis. Cambridge University Press.
• Koçak, E., Ulucak, R. ve Şentürk Ulucak, Z. (2020). The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation. Tourism Management Perspectives, 33, 100611.
• Lanouar, C. ve Goaied, M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov switching models. Toursim Management, 70, 404-418.
• Lee, C.C. ve Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180–192.
• Lee, C. C., Olasehinde‐Williams, G. ve Akadiri, S. S. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23, 26-38.
• Lee, C., Var, T. ve Blaine, T. W. (1996). Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures. Annals of Tourism Research, 23(3), 527-512.
• León, C. J., Arana, J. E. ve Alemán, A. H. (2014). CO2 Emissions and tourism in developed and less developed countries. Applied Economics Letters, 21(16), 1169-1173.
• Lim, C. ve McAleer, M. (2002). A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 59, 197–205.
• Lim, C. (1999). A Meta-Analytic Review of International Tourism Demand. Journal of Travel Research, 37, 273-284.
• Martins, L. P., Gan, Y. ve Ferreira-Lopes, A. (2017). An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand. Tourism Management, 61, 248-260.
• Massidda, C. ve Etzo, I. (2012). The determinants of Italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis. Tourism Management, 33, 603-610.
• McDermott, J. ve McMenamin, P. (2008). Assessing Inflation Targeting in Latin America with aDSGE Model. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 469, Chile.
• McCoy, D. (1997). How useful is Structural VAR Analysis for Irish economics? Technical Paper 2/RT/97 Meng, M., Im, K. S., Lee, J. ve Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More powerful LM unit root tests with non-normal errors. R. C. Sickles ve W. C. Horrace (Ed.), içinde Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt Econometric Methods and Application (s. 343-357).
• Moutinho, V., Costa, C. ve Bento, J. P. C. (2015). The impact of energy efficiency and economic productivity on CO2 emission intensity in Portuguese tourism industries. Tourism Management Perspectives, 16, 217–227.
• Ng, T. H., Lye, C. T. ve Lim , Y. S. (2016). A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions: evidence from Malaysia’s tourism industry. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 23(3), 266-277.
• Özcan, C.C. (2015). Türkiye’de turizm gelirinin makroekonomik belirleyicileri: Panel veri analizi. Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24(1), 203-220.
• Parida, Y., Bhardwaj, P. ve Chowdhury, J. R. (2017). Determinants of tourism in Indian states: An empirical analysis. Tourism Review, 72(3), 330-343.
• Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels wıth multıple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue, 0305-9049, 653-669.
• Phakdisoth, L. ve Kim, D. (2007). The determinants of inbound tourism in Laos. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 24(2), 225-237.
• Romero, A. M. ve Mendez-Carbajo, D. (2005). Comparative study: Factors that affect foreign currency reserves in China and India 2005. John Wesley Powell Student Research Conference. Illinois Wesleyan University, United States.
• Saha, S. ve Yap, G. (2014). The moderation effects of political instability and terrorism on tourism development. Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), 509-521.
• Schalber, C. ve Peters, M. (2012). Determinants of health tourism competitiveness: An Alpine case study. Tourism: An International Interdisciplinary Journal, 60(3), 307-323.
• Schmidt, P. ve Phillips, P. C. B. (1992). LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends. Oxford Bull Econ Stat, 54(3), 257-285.
• Seetanah, B., Durbarry, R. ve Ragodoo, J. F. N. (2010). Using the panel cointegration approach to analyse the determinants of tourism demand in South Africa. Tourism Economics, 16(3), 715–729.
• Sequeira, T. N. ve Nunes, P. M. (2008). Does country risk influence international tourism? A dynamic panel data analysis. The Economic Record, 84(265), 223-236.
• Shafiullah, M., Okafor, L. E. ve Khalid, U. (2018). Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories. Tourism Economics, 1–23.
• Shahbaz, M., Arouri, M. ve Teulon, F. (2014). Short- and long-run relationships between natural gas consumption andeconomic growth: Evidence from Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 41, 219-226.
• Sharif, A., Afshan, S. ve Nisha, N. (2017). Impact of tourism on CO2 emission: Evidence from Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 408-421.
• Sırkıntıoğlu Yıldırım, Ş. ve Esen, Ü. B. (2021). Social entrepreneurship activities in tourism sector: Bibliometric analysis and social network analysis. A. R. Perinotto, V. F. Mayer, ve J. R. Soares (Ed.), içinde Rebuilding and Restructuring the Tourism Industry: Infusion of Happiness and Quality of Life in IGI Global (s. 58-83).
• Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica 48(1), 1–48.
• Sims, C. (1986). Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Winter.
• Stockhammer, E. ve Onaran, Ö. (2004). Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 15, 421–447.
• Tang, C. F. ve Tan, E. C. (2016) The determinants of inbound tourism demand in Malaysia: Another visit with non-stationary panel data approach. Anatolia, 27(2), 189-200.
• Tang, C. F. ve Lau, E. (2021). Exploring the Impact of Political Stability and Climate Change on Inbound Tourism Demand: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. F. M., Fritz, Öner, Ö. (Ed.), içinde Regional Science Perspectives on Tourism and Hospitality (s. 403-419).
• Tavares, J. M. ve Leitáo, N. C. (2016). The determinants of international tourism demand for Brazil. Tourism Economics, 1–12.
• Tiwari, A. K., Das, D. ve Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75, 323-327.
• Ulusoy, T. ve Civek, F, (2020). İnsani ihtiyaçlar değişiyor mu? Maslow ihtiyaçlar hiyerarşisinden Covid-19 ihtiyaçlar hiyerarşisine teorik bir değerlendirme. Social Sciences Studıis Journal (SSSJournal), 75, 5489-5495.
• Uysal, M. ve Crompton, J. L. (1984). Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey. Tourism management, 5(4), 288-297.
• Xie, J. (2020). The economic determinants of tourism seasonality: A case study of the Norwegian tourism industry. Cogent Business & Management, 7(1), 1-15.
• Wamboye, E. F., Nyaronga, P. J., ve Sergi, B. S. (2020). What are the determinants of international tourism in Tanzania? World Development Perspectives, 17, 100175.
• Webber, A. G. (2001). Exchange rate volatility and cointegration in tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, 39(4), 398-405.
• Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
• World Bank (2014). 2014 World Development Indicators. http://elibrary. worldbank.org/doi/pdf/10.1596/978-1-4648-0163-1, (Erişim: 20.09.2021).