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Türkiye’de Silah İthalatının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 35, 707 - 734, 07.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.807026

Öz

Savunma harcamalarının ülke ekonomilerine katkısının olup olmadığı, varsa bu etkinin yönünün nasıl olduğu hususunda yapılmış bir çok çalışma mevcuttur. Savunma harcamaları içinde en büyük harcama kalemlerinden olan silah ithalatının gelişmekte olan ülkelerin makroekonomik performanslarına olan etkileri uzun süredir tartışılan bir konudur. Bu çalışmanın amacı da gelişmekte olan ülkelerden olan Türkiye’nin ödemeler dengesinde büyük açıklara yol açan silah ithalatının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini saptamaya yöneliktir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmada Türkiye’ye ye ait 1990-2017 dönemi verilerinden hareketle silah ithalatının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini tespit etmek maksadıyla yapısal kırılmalı Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Modele (ARDL) dayalı Sınır Testi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın test sonuçlarında, kısa dönemde Türkiye’de silah ithalatı ile iktisadi büyüme arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamış fakat uzun dönemde silah ithalatının iktisadi büyümeyi negatif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • ÖZMUCUR, Süleyman, The Economics of Defense and The Peace Dividend in Turkey, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Basımevi, İstanbul, 1995.
  • ŞİMŞEK, Muammer, Üçüncü Dünya Ülkelerinde ve Türkiye’de Savunma Sanayii, SAGEB Yayınları, Ankara, 1989.
  • ALNIAK, Oktay, “Türk Savunma Sanayi Hakkında Genel Değerlendirme”, Savunma Sanayiindeki Teknolojik Gelişmeler Sempozyumu, 5–6 Haziran 1997, Kara Harp Okulu, Ankara.
  • ATEŞOĞLU, H. Sönmez, “Defense Spending and Aggregate Output in The United States”, Defence and Peace, 2009, Cilt: 20(1), 21-26.
  • BAŞAR, Selim ve KÜNÜ, Serkan, “Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyümeye Etkisi”, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2012, Cilt: 10, 1-30.
  • BENOIT, Emile, “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1978, Cilt: 26(2), 271-280.
  • BISWAS, Basudeb ve RAM, Rati, “Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1986, Cilt: 34(2), 361-372.
  • BRZOSKA, Michael, “World Military Expenditures”, Keith Hartley ve Todd Sandler, (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1995, 45-67.
  • CHOWDHURY, Abdur R., “A Casual Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1991, Cilt: 35(1), 80-97.
  • DEGER, Saadet, “Economic Development and Defense Expenditure”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1986, Cilt: 35(1), 179-196.
  • DAKURAH, Angson Henry, DAVIES, Stephen P. ve SAMPATH, Rajan K, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2001, Cilt: 23(6), 651-658.
  • DEGER, Saadet ve SMITH, Ron, “Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1983, Cilt: 27(2), 335-353.
  • DRITSAKIS, Nikolaos, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Greece and Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2004, Cilt: 26(2), 249-264.
  • DUNNE, Paul ve TIAN, Nan, “Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2013, Cilt: 26(1), 15-31.
  • DUNNE, Paul ve VOUGAS, Dimitrios, “Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Causal Analysis”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1999, Cilt: 43(4), 521-537.
  • DUNNE, Paul, NIKOLAIDOU, Eftychia ve VOUGAS, Dimitrios, “Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2001, Cilt: 12(1), 5-26.
  • DUYAR, Metin ve KOÇOĞLU, Mustafa, “Askerî Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi; Sahra Altı Afrika Örneği”, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2014, Cilt: 7(33), 703-722.
  • FREDERIKSEN, Peter C. ve LOONEY, Robert E., “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Armed Forces & Society, 1983, Cilt: 9(4), 633-645.
  • GÖRKEM, Hilal ve IŞIK, Serkan, “Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki (1968-2006)”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2008, Cilt: 25(2), 405-424.
  • GYIMAH-BREMPONG, Kwabena, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Subsaharan Africa: An Econometric Investigation”, Journal of Peace Research, 1989, Cilt: 26(1), 79-90.
  • HEO, Uk, “The Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in The United States”, Political Research Quarterly, 2010, Cilt: 63(4), 760-770.
  • JOERDING, Wayne H., “Economic Growth and Defense Spending: Granger Causality. Journal of Development Economics, 1986, Cilt: 21(1), 35-40.
  • KALYONCU, Hüseyin ve YÜCEL, Fatih, “An Analytical Approach on Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey and Greece”, Journal of Economic Studies, 2006, Cilt: 33(5), 336-343.
  • KARAGIANNI, Stella ve PEMPETZOGLOU, Maria, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Linear and Non-Linear Granger Causality Approach”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2009, Cilt: 20(2), 139-148.
  • KARAGÖL, Erdal ve PALAZ, Serap, “Does Defense Expenditure Deter Economic Growth in Turkey? A Cointegration Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2004, Cilt: 15(3), 289-298.
  • KAYA, Semanur Soyyiğit, “Türkiye'de Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Etkileri Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi (1970-2010)”, Trakya University Journal of Social Science, 2013, Cilt: 15(2), 17-38.
  • KOLLIAS, Christos ve MAKRYDAKIS, Stelios, “A Note on the Causal Relationship between Defence Spending and Growth in Greece: 1955-93”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2000, Cilt: 11(1), 173-184.
  • KOLLIAS, Christos, “Defence Spending and Growth in Turkey 1954–1993: A Causal Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1997, Cilt: 8(2), 189-204.
  • KOLLIAS, Christos, MANOLAS, George ve PALEOLOGOU, Suzanna-Maria, “Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in the European Union a Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2004, Cilt: 26(5), 553-569.
  • KORKMAZ, Özge ve BİLGİN, Tuba, “Askerî Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, International Journal of Economic & Administrative Studies, 2017, Cilt: 18, 289-316.
  • KORKMAZ, Suna, “The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth and Unemployment in Mediterranean Countries”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2015, Cilt: 5(1), 273-280.
  • LACIVITA, Charles J. ve FREDERIKSEN, Peter C., “Defense Spending and Economic Growth an Alternative Approach to the Causality Issue”, Journal of Development Economics, 1991, Cilt: 35(1), 117-126.
  • MINTZ, Alex ve STEVENSON, Randolph T., “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth and the Peace Dividend: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1995, Cilt: 39(2), 283-305.
  • NA, Hou ve BO, Chen, “Cooperation for a Peaceful and Sustainable World Part 2: Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Asia”, Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, 2013, Cilt: 20, 213-223.
  • PAYNE, James E. ve ROSS, Kevin L., “Defense Spending and the Macroeconomy”, Defence Economics, 1992, Cilt: 3(2), 161-168.
  • PESARAN, M. H., SHIN, Yongcheol ve SMITH, Richard J., “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, Cilt: 16(3), 289-326.
  • SEZGİN, Selami, “An Empirical Analysis of Turkey's Defence-Growth Relationships with a Multi-Equation Model (1956–1994)”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2001, Cilt: 12(1), 69-86.
  • SEZGİN, Selami, “Country Survey X: Defence spending in Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1997, Cilt: 8(4), 381-409.
  • TOPAL, Mehmet Hanefi, “Türkiye’de Askerî Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)”, Maliye Dergisi, 2018, Cilt: 174, 175-202.
  • TUNCAY, Özhan, “Finansal Serbestleşme Sonrası Dönem Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Analizi”, Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2017, Cilt: 3(1), 23-37.
  • YAKOVLEV, Pavel, “Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2007, Cilt: 18(4), 317-338.
  • YANTUR, Pelin ve GÜRSON, Ali Poyraz, “Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Araştırma: ABD, Japonya ve Fransa Örneği”, İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2019, Cilt: 8(1), 163-182.
  • YILANCI, Veli ve ÖZCAN, Burcu, “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye için Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2010, Cilt: 11(1), 21-33.
  • YILDIRIM, Jülide ve ÖCAL, Nadir, “Arms Race and Economic Growth: The Case of India and Pakistan”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2006, Cilt: 17(1), 37-45.
  • YILDIRIM, Jülide, SEZGİN, Selami ve ÖCAL, Nadir, “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2005, Cilt: 16(4), 283-295.
  • SIPRI Resmi İnternet Sayfası, http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php (Erişim Tarihi: 14.04.2019).
  • The World Bank Resmî İnternet Sayfası, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (Erişim Tarihi: 14.04.2019).

The Impact of Arms Imports on Economic Growth in Turkey

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 35, 707 - 734, 07.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.807026

Öz

The effects of arms imports, which is the major defense spending item, on the macroeconomic performances of developing countries is a long-debated issue. Therefore, this study aims to determine the impact of arms imports on economic growth, which lead to large deficits in the balance of payments of Turkey. Among the defense spending items, the arms imports have the greatest impact potential on the economies of countries. For this purpose, Bounds Testing based on the structural break Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was performed to determine the impact of the arms import on economic growth, using the 1990-2017 period data of Turkey. According to the test results of the study, no statistically significant correlation was found between the arms imports in Turkey and economic growth in the short run, but it was found that the arms imports have a negative impact on the economic growth in the long run.

Kaynakça

  • ÖZMUCUR, Süleyman, The Economics of Defense and The Peace Dividend in Turkey, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Basımevi, İstanbul, 1995.
  • ŞİMŞEK, Muammer, Üçüncü Dünya Ülkelerinde ve Türkiye’de Savunma Sanayii, SAGEB Yayınları, Ankara, 1989.
  • ALNIAK, Oktay, “Türk Savunma Sanayi Hakkında Genel Değerlendirme”, Savunma Sanayiindeki Teknolojik Gelişmeler Sempozyumu, 5–6 Haziran 1997, Kara Harp Okulu, Ankara.
  • ATEŞOĞLU, H. Sönmez, “Defense Spending and Aggregate Output in The United States”, Defence and Peace, 2009, Cilt: 20(1), 21-26.
  • BAŞAR, Selim ve KÜNÜ, Serkan, “Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyümeye Etkisi”, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2012, Cilt: 10, 1-30.
  • BENOIT, Emile, “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1978, Cilt: 26(2), 271-280.
  • BISWAS, Basudeb ve RAM, Rati, “Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1986, Cilt: 34(2), 361-372.
  • BRZOSKA, Michael, “World Military Expenditures”, Keith Hartley ve Todd Sandler, (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1995, 45-67.
  • CHOWDHURY, Abdur R., “A Casual Analysis of Defense Spending and Economic Growth”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1991, Cilt: 35(1), 80-97.
  • DEGER, Saadet, “Economic Development and Defense Expenditure”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1986, Cilt: 35(1), 179-196.
  • DAKURAH, Angson Henry, DAVIES, Stephen P. ve SAMPATH, Rajan K, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2001, Cilt: 23(6), 651-658.
  • DEGER, Saadet ve SMITH, Ron, “Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1983, Cilt: 27(2), 335-353.
  • DRITSAKIS, Nikolaos, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Greece and Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2004, Cilt: 26(2), 249-264.
  • DUNNE, Paul ve TIAN, Nan, “Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2013, Cilt: 26(1), 15-31.
  • DUNNE, Paul ve VOUGAS, Dimitrios, “Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Causal Analysis”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1999, Cilt: 43(4), 521-537.
  • DUNNE, Paul, NIKOLAIDOU, Eftychia ve VOUGAS, Dimitrios, “Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2001, Cilt: 12(1), 5-26.
  • DUYAR, Metin ve KOÇOĞLU, Mustafa, “Askerî Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi; Sahra Altı Afrika Örneği”, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2014, Cilt: 7(33), 703-722.
  • FREDERIKSEN, Peter C. ve LOONEY, Robert E., “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Armed Forces & Society, 1983, Cilt: 9(4), 633-645.
  • GÖRKEM, Hilal ve IŞIK, Serkan, “Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki (1968-2006)”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2008, Cilt: 25(2), 405-424.
  • GYIMAH-BREMPONG, Kwabena, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Subsaharan Africa: An Econometric Investigation”, Journal of Peace Research, 1989, Cilt: 26(1), 79-90.
  • HEO, Uk, “The Relationship between Defense Spending and Economic Growth in The United States”, Political Research Quarterly, 2010, Cilt: 63(4), 760-770.
  • JOERDING, Wayne H., “Economic Growth and Defense Spending: Granger Causality. Journal of Development Economics, 1986, Cilt: 21(1), 35-40.
  • KALYONCU, Hüseyin ve YÜCEL, Fatih, “An Analytical Approach on Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey and Greece”, Journal of Economic Studies, 2006, Cilt: 33(5), 336-343.
  • KARAGIANNI, Stella ve PEMPETZOGLOU, Maria, “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Linear and Non-Linear Granger Causality Approach”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2009, Cilt: 20(2), 139-148.
  • KARAGÖL, Erdal ve PALAZ, Serap, “Does Defense Expenditure Deter Economic Growth in Turkey? A Cointegration Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2004, Cilt: 15(3), 289-298.
  • KAYA, Semanur Soyyiğit, “Türkiye'de Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Etkileri Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi (1970-2010)”, Trakya University Journal of Social Science, 2013, Cilt: 15(2), 17-38.
  • KOLLIAS, Christos ve MAKRYDAKIS, Stelios, “A Note on the Causal Relationship between Defence Spending and Growth in Greece: 1955-93”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2000, Cilt: 11(1), 173-184.
  • KOLLIAS, Christos, “Defence Spending and Growth in Turkey 1954–1993: A Causal Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1997, Cilt: 8(2), 189-204.
  • KOLLIAS, Christos, MANOLAS, George ve PALEOLOGOU, Suzanna-Maria, “Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in the European Union a Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2004, Cilt: 26(5), 553-569.
  • KORKMAZ, Özge ve BİLGİN, Tuba, “Askerî Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, International Journal of Economic & Administrative Studies, 2017, Cilt: 18, 289-316.
  • KORKMAZ, Suna, “The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth and Unemployment in Mediterranean Countries”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2015, Cilt: 5(1), 273-280.
  • LACIVITA, Charles J. ve FREDERIKSEN, Peter C., “Defense Spending and Economic Growth an Alternative Approach to the Causality Issue”, Journal of Development Economics, 1991, Cilt: 35(1), 117-126.
  • MINTZ, Alex ve STEVENSON, Randolph T., “Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth and the Peace Dividend: A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1995, Cilt: 39(2), 283-305.
  • NA, Hou ve BO, Chen, “Cooperation for a Peaceful and Sustainable World Part 2: Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Asia”, Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, 2013, Cilt: 20, 213-223.
  • PAYNE, James E. ve ROSS, Kevin L., “Defense Spending and the Macroeconomy”, Defence Economics, 1992, Cilt: 3(2), 161-168.
  • PESARAN, M. H., SHIN, Yongcheol ve SMITH, Richard J., “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, Cilt: 16(3), 289-326.
  • SEZGİN, Selami, “An Empirical Analysis of Turkey's Defence-Growth Relationships with a Multi-Equation Model (1956–1994)”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2001, Cilt: 12(1), 69-86.
  • SEZGİN, Selami, “Country Survey X: Defence spending in Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, 1997, Cilt: 8(4), 381-409.
  • TOPAL, Mehmet Hanefi, “Türkiye’de Askerî Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Bir Analizi (1960-2016)”, Maliye Dergisi, 2018, Cilt: 174, 175-202.
  • TUNCAY, Özhan, “Finansal Serbestleşme Sonrası Dönem Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Analizi”, Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2017, Cilt: 3(1), 23-37.
  • YAKOVLEV, Pavel, “Arms Trade, Military Spending, and Economic Growth”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2007, Cilt: 18(4), 317-338.
  • YANTUR, Pelin ve GÜRSON, Ali Poyraz, “Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Araştırma: ABD, Japonya ve Fransa Örneği”, İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2019, Cilt: 8(1), 163-182.
  • YILANCI, Veli ve ÖZCAN, Burcu, “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye için Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 2010, Cilt: 11(1), 21-33.
  • YILDIRIM, Jülide ve ÖCAL, Nadir, “Arms Race and Economic Growth: The Case of India and Pakistan”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2006, Cilt: 17(1), 37-45.
  • YILDIRIM, Jülide, SEZGİN, Selami ve ÖCAL, Nadir, “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 2005, Cilt: 16(4), 283-295.
  • SIPRI Resmi İnternet Sayfası, http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php (Erişim Tarihi: 14.04.2019).
  • The World Bank Resmî İnternet Sayfası, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (Erişim Tarihi: 14.04.2019).
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şerif Canbay Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-6141-7510

Derya Mercan Bu kişi benim 0000-0003-3011-4423

Yayımlanma Tarihi 7 Ekim 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Haziran 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 35

Kaynak Göster

Chicago Canbay, Şerif, ve Derya Mercan. “Türkiye’de Silah İthalatının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi”. Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi 16, sy. 35 (Ekim 2020): 707-34. https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.807026.