Doğu Cephesinde Yeni Bir Şey Yok: Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Sonrası Avrupa’da Savaş Hazırlıkları

Yıl 2023, “Yeni” Savaşlar ve “Yeni” Ordular, 191 - 219, 24.11.2023

Cemil Sağlam

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1365782

Öz

Bu makalede bazı Avrupa ülkelerinin artan güvenlik tehditleri sonrası toplumlarını olası bir savaş ve krize nasıl hazırladığı sorusuna cevap aranmıştır. Modern dönemle birlikte savaşların cephe gerisini de etkiler hale gelmesiyle siviller de savaşın birer parçası haline geldi. Buna mukabil devletler insanlarını savaşın yıkıcı etkileri karşısında hazırlıklı kılmak için çeşitli uygulamalar geliştirmiştir. Soğuk Savaş yıllarında birçok ülkede Topyekûn savunma adıyla yürütülen faaliyetler de bu anlayışın bir ürünüdür. Sovyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasının ardından birçok ülkede rafa kaldırılan uygulamalar 2014 sonrasında ve özellikle Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı’yla birlikte Avrupa toplumlarının savaş ve kriz karşısındaki hazırlıklarıyla tekrar gündeme getirmiştir. Çalışmada yapılan hazırlıkların devrimsel yenilikler taşımadığı iddiasından hareketle ülkelerin tehdit algısı, tarihsel hafıza ve geçmiş topyekûn savunma tecrübelerinin güncel uygulamaları şekillendirdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Makalenin son kısımda ise Türk toplumunun savaş ve krizler karşısındaki toplumsal hazırlığının kısa bir tarihçesi verilerek topyekûn savunma konsepti açısından değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Topyekûn Savunma, Sivil Savunma, Soğuk Savaş, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, Ordu ve Toplum

All Quiet on the Eastern Front: European Societies after the Russia-Ukraine War

Öz

This article seeks to answer the question of how some European countries prepare their societies for possible wars and crises in the wake of increasing security threats. In the modern era, civilians have also become a part of the war, since the wars have started to affect those behind the frontlines. In response to this, states developed various practices to prepare their people for the devastating effects of war. The activities carried out under the name of Total Defence in many countries during the Cold War years were a product of this understanding and preparations. The applications that were shelved in many countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union have been brought back to the agenda after 2014 especially with the Russian-Ukrainian War and with the preparations of European societies against war and crisis. Based on the claim that these preparations do not carry revolutionary innovations, this study concludes that the threat perception, historical memory, and past collective defence experiences of the countries shape the current practices. The last part of the article evaluates a brief history of the social preparedness of Turkish society in war and crises in terms of the concept of total defence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Total Defence, Civil Defence, Cold War, Russia-Ukraine War, Armed Forces and Society

Kaynakça

• ATEŞ Barış (2020). “Askeri Değişim: Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Dönem Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10:1, 15-42.
• ATMANTE Kristine (2020). “Comprehensive Defence in Latvia- Rebranding State Defence and Call for Society’s Involvement”, Journal on Baltic Security, 6:2, 1-15.
• AYCAN Nihat UZUNLAR Şinasi ve AYCAN Şule (2018). “Liselerde Verilen Askerlik Derslerinin Tarihçesi”, Akademia Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 223-32.
• BERZİNA Ieva (2020). “From ‘Total’ to ‘Comprehensive’ National Defence: The Development of the Concept in Europe”, Journal on Baltic Security, 6:2, 1-9.
• BEŞİKÇİ Mehmet (2013). “On Yıllık Harp ve Topyekûn Seferberlik”, Osmanlı Askeri Tarihi: Kara, Deniz ve Hava Kuvvetleri, 1792-1918, (ed.), Gültekin Yıldız, 205-26, Timaş Yayınları, İstanbul.
• BOZDEMİR Mevlüt (1982). Türk Ordusunun Tarihsel Kaynakları, A.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Yayınları, Ankara.
• COWEN Deborah ve GİLBERT Emily (2008). War, Citizenship, Territory, Routledge, New York.
• ENLOE Cynthia (2000). Maneuvers: The International Politics of Militarizing Women’s Lives, University of California Press, California.
• FLANAGAN Stephen OSBURG Jan BİNNENDİJK Anika KEPE Marta ve RADİN Andrew (2019). “Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance”, RAND Corporation.
• GARRİSON Dee (2006). Bracing for Armageddon: Why Civil Defense Never Worked, Oxford University Press, New York.
• GOLTZ Colmar von der (2016). Millet-i Müsellaha (Ordu Millet), (çev. İsmet Sarıbal), Otorite Kitap, İstanbul.
• INGLEHART Ronald F PURANEN Bi ve WELZEL Christian (2015). “Declining Willingness to Fight for One’s Country: The Individual-Level Basis of the Long Peace”, Journal of Peace Research, 52:4, 418-434.
• ITSİK Ronen (2020). “Compulsory Military Service as a Social Integrator”, Security and Defence Quarterly, 30:3, 65-80.
• KARABULUT Umut (2014). “Davetsiz Misafiri Beklerken İkinci Dünya Savaşı Türkiye’sinde Pasif Güvenlik Önlemleri (1939-1940)”, Çağdaş Türkiye Tarihi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14:28, 199-223.
• KREBS Ronald R. (2004). “A School for the Nation? How Military Service Does Not Build Nations, and How It Might”, International Security, 28:4, 85-124.
• KURÇ Çağlar (2020). “Savunma Çalışmaları”, Türk Savaş Çalışmaları Dergisi, 1:2, 90-108.
• LARSSON Sebastian ve RHİNARD Mark (ed.) (2021). Nordic Societal Security: Convergence and Divergence, Routledge New Security Studies, Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, London/New York.
• LUDENDORFF Erich von (2017). Topyekûn Harp, (çev. Erhan Çifci ve Aynur Onur Çifci), Dergâh Yayınları, İstanbul. LUTTWAK Edward N. (1995). “Toward Post-Heroic Warfare”, Foreign Affairs, 74:3, 109-122.
• MOSKOS Charles C. (2005). “Military Systems in the 21st Century: Changes and Continuities”, Timothy Edmunds ve Marjan Malešič (ed.), Defence Transformation in Europe: Evolving Military Roles, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 19-26.
• MÜNKLER Herfried (2010). Yeni Savaşlar, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul.
• NİCOLL Angus (1986). “Preparing for War: No Lessons Learned”, Medicine and War, 2:2 103-109.
• RİKSVAPNET Lill A. ve DAHLSTRÖM H. (2018). “If Crisis or War Comes”, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), erişim 20.10.2023.
• SAĞLAM Cemil (2022). “Çekiç ile Tornavida Arasındaki Fark: Amerikan Askerî Yardımları Sonrası TSK’daki Dönüşümün Toplumsal Etkileri”, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyoloji Dergisi, 42:3, 51-75.
• STRİNGER Kevin D. (2017). Building a Stay- Behind Resistance Organization, National Defense University Press, Wahington.
• TUUNAİNEN Pasi (2016). Finnish Military Effectiveness in the Winter War, 1939-1940, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
• URYCH Ilona ve MATYSİAK Grzegorz (2022). “Preparing Youth for Defence: Socialisation, Education, and Training of Young People in Europe for National Security”, Security and Defence Quarterly, 2:38, 1-15.
• VALE Lawrence J. (1987). “Origins and Definitions of Civil Defence”, Lawrence J. Vale (ed.), The Limits of Civil Defence in the USA, Switzerland, Britain and the Soviet Union, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 14-23.
• VARDAĞLI Emine Tutku (2021). “The Impacts of Lausanne Treaty on British Colonialism”, Journal of Anglo-Turkish Relations, 2:2, 67-87.
• WİTHER James Kenneth (2020). “Back to the Future? Nordic Total Defence Concepts”, Defence Studies, 20:1, 61-81.
• YARAR Betül (2014). “Osmanlı’dan Cumhuriyete Geçiş Süreci ve Erken Cumhuriyet Dönemi Türkiye’sinde Modern Sporun Kuruluşu”, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21, 301-317.
• ZDANAVİCİUS Liudas ve STATKUS Nortautas (2020). “Strengthening Resilience of Lithuania in an Era of Great Power Competition: The Case for Total Defence”, Journal on Baltic Security, 2:6, 1-21.
• “200 Tys. Polaków Na Ćwiczenia Wojskowe”. Kto Dostanie Powołanie?”, https://www.tvp.info/64979922/cwiczenia-wojskowe-2023-r-kto-dostanie-powolanie-do-wojska-wyjasniamy-, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “66% of Adult Poles Want to Defend Their Homeland!”, https://wei.org.pl/en/2022/ news/admin/66-of-adult-poles-want-to-defend-their-homeland/, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “About NORDEFCO - Nordefco”, https://www.nordefco.org/the-basics-about-nordefco, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Activities of national minority cultural associations | INSA”, https://integratsioon.ee/ en/activities-national-minority-cultural-associations, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Baltic Defence College - Home”, https://www.baltdefcol.org/, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Building resilience – Collaborative proposals to help nations and partners” (2017). Supreme Allied Command Transformation and City of Norfolk, https://www.norfolk.gov/ DocumentCenter/View/30383/Interdependency-in-Resilience?bidId=, erişim 20.10.2023
• “Civil Defence Shelters - Ministry of the Interior”, https://intermin.fi/en/rescue-services/preparedness/civil-defence-shelters, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Estonia: Country Data and Statistics”, https://www.worlddata.info/europe/ estonia/index.php, erişim 20.10.2023. “Estonian Defence League”, https://www.kaitseliit.ee/en/edl, erişim 20.10.2023
• “Fifty-Eight Thousand Women Serving in Ukrainian Army”, https://www.ukrinform.net/ rubric-defense/3143381-fiftyeight-thousand-women-serving-in-ukrainian-army.html, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Finns’ Opinions on Foreign and Security Policy”, Advisory Board for Defence Information, https://www.defmin.fi/files/3579/ABDI_(MTS)_December_2016_Report_ in_english.pdf, erişim 20.10.2023
• “French Military Chiefs Sound the Alarm on the State of the Armed Forces”, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/08/13/french-military-chiefs-of-staff-sound-the-alert-on-the-state-of-their-troops_5993519_4.html, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Hiçbir ülkede millî güvenlik dersi yok”, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/egitim/hicbir-ulkede-milli-guvenlik-dersi-yok/383878, erişim 19.10.2023
• “In Neutral Sweden, Civil Defense and Citizens Gear up for Possibility of War”, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/02/16/in-neutral-sweden-civil-defense-and-citizens-gear-up-for-possibility-of-war_6016004_4.html, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “In the Reserve”, https://intti.fi/en/in-the-reserve, erişim 20.10.2023
• “Infographic: Where Exposure To Fake News Is Highest”, https://www.statista.com/ chart/14265/where-exposure-to-fake-news-is-highest, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Kaitseliidu Kool”, https://kaitseliidukool.ee/koolist/, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Klasy Mundurowe Na Szkoleniach Wojskowych”, https://defence24.pl/sily-zbrojne/klasy-mundurowe-na-szkoleniach-wojskowych, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Krašto Apsaugos Sistema: Skaičiai ir Pokyčiai”, Lietuvos Respublikos Krašto Apsaugos Ministerija, https://kam.lt/leidiniai/krasto-apsaugos-sistema-skaiciai-ir-pokyciai/, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Latvia political briefing: Compulsory Military Service to be Introduced in Latvia”, China-CEE Institute, https://china-cee.eu/2022/07/20/latvia-political-briefing-compulsory-military-service-to-be-introduced-in-latvia/, erişim 20.10.2023
• “Latvia: Country Data and Statistics”, https://www.worlddata.info/europe/latvia/index.php, erişim 20.10.2023
• “Les classes de défense et de sécurité globales (CDSG) et les cadets”, https://eduscol.education.fr/ 3664/les-classes-de-defense-et-de-securite-globales-et-les-cadets, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Lithuania - World Directory of Minorities & Indigenous Peoples”, https://minorityrights. org/country/lithuania/, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Military expenditure (current USD) - European Union | Data”, https://data.worldbank. org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.CD?locations=EU, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Military spending boost to give Poland largest army in EU”, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/ economy/military-spending-boost-to-give-poland-largest-army-in-eu/2801841, erişim 20.10.2023
• “Millî Güvenlik Bilgisi Öğretimi Yönetmeliği”, 02 Şubat 1980. https://www.mevzuat.gov.tr/anasayfa/MevzuatFihristDetayIframe?MevzuatTur=3&MevzuatNo=837&MevzuatTertip=5, erişim 19.10.2023
• “Modern Military - Safe Homeland - Ministry of National Defence - Gov.Pl Website”, https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/modern-military---safe-homeland, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Moscow Signals Concern for Russians in Estonia”, blm. Emerging Markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “NATO - Topic: NATO’s military presence in the east of the Alliance”, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Nordic Countries Plan Joint Air Defence to Counter Russian Threat”, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-plan-joint-air-defence-counter-russian-threat-2023-03-24/, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Polish Defence in the Perspective of 2032 - Ministry of National Defence - Gov.Pl Website”, https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/polish-defence-in-the-perspective-of-2032, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Public Opinion on National Defence 2022”, Eesti Uuringukeskus OÜ, https://www.kaitseministeerium.ee/en/objectives-activities/national-defence-and-society, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine”, DG COMM Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/files/be-heard/eurobarometer/2022/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine/en-public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine-20220304.pdf, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Record Number of Reservists Participated in Defence Exercises Last Year”, https://yle.fi/a/74-20013081, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Reporters - Ukraine’s Shadow Soldiers: Meeting Resistance Fighters in Kherson Region”, https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/reporters/20230224-ukraine-s-shadow-soldiers-meeting-resistance-fighters-in-kherson-region, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Resilience through Civil Preparedness”, A CCOE Info Sheet CIMIC Centre of Excellence, https://www.cimic-coe.org/resources/fact-sheets/resilience-through-civil-preparedness.pdf, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Society Integration in Latvia | Ārlietu Ministrija”, https://www.mfa.gov.lv/en/society-integration-latvia, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “The Security Strategy for Society Government Resolution”, The Security Committee Ministry of Defence (Finland), https://turvallisuuskomitea.fi/wp-content/uploads/ 2018/04/YTS_2017_english.pdf, erişim 20.10.2023.
• “Total Defence for the New Era. Swedish Expert: Increase of the Armed Forces Size is a Challenge”, https://defence24.com/defence-policy/total-defence-for-the-new-era-swedish -expert-increase-of-the-armed-forces-size-is-a-challenge-interview, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Turkey: Public Trust in Institutions 2022”, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1330697/ turkey-public-trust-in-institutions/, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Türkiye`de Medya Okuryazarlığı”, http://www.medyaokuryazarligi.gov.tr/menu_ goster.php?Guid=E56CE034-6CEB-41AE-A12C-B618EBEA461B, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Ukraine: Civilian Casualty Update 13 February 2023”, https://www.ohchr.org/ en/news/2023/02/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-13-february-2023, erişim 17.10.2023.
• “Understanding Ukraine’s ‘National Resistance’ Movement”, https://www.kyivpost.com/ post/7528, erişim 17.10.2023.
• “Warsaw Summit Communiqué Issued by NATO Heads of State and Government (2016)”. NATO, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm, erişim 20.10.2023
• “WIN/Gallup International’s Global Survey Shows Three in Five Willing to Fight for Their Country”, https://www.gallup-international.bg/en/33483/win-gallup-internationals-global -survey-shows-three-in-five-willing-to-fight-for-their-country/, erişim 19.10.2023.
• “Young Guard | Young Guard Center”, https://jc.gov.lv/lv/jaunsardze, erişim 20.10.2023.
• FLANAGAN Stephen J ve KEPE Marta. “What Kind of Resistance Can Ukraine Mount?” Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/02/26/what-kind-of-resistance-can-ukraine-mount/, erişim 20.10.2023.
• ĪVĀNS Ansis, “‘2% no IKP: Kā mūs aizsargās?”, Delfi, https://www.delfi.lv/193/politics/ 49555249/2-no-ikp-ka-mus-aizsargas-no-8-tukstosiem-rezerves-karaviru-tris-gados-iemanas-atjaunojusi-357, erişim 20.10.2023.
• KOSHİW Isobel ve O’CARROLL Lisa, “Kyiv Transport App Is Transformed into Life-Saving War Information Tool”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/ 2022/mar/15/kyiv-transport-app-is-transformed-into-life-saving-war-information-tool, erişim 17.10.2023.
• PARZYGNAT Natalia, “Gun Ranges in Poland Report Boom in Interest amid War in Ukraine”. Notes From Poland, https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/25/gun-ranges-in-poland-report-boom-in-interest-amid-war-in-ukraine/, erişim 20.10.2023.
• PEZARD Stephanie, SHURKİN Michael ve OCHMANEK David A, “A Strong Ally Stretched Thin: An Overview of France’s Defense Capabilities from a Burdensharing Perspective”, RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/ RRA231-1.html, erişim 20.10.2023.
• Regeringskansliet, Regeringen och. “Sweden’s Role in NATO”, Regeringskansliet. Regeringen och Regeringskansliet, https://www.government.se/speeches/2023/01/ swedens-role-in-nato/, erişim 20.10.2023.