Dolarizasyonun Finansal Gelişme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de dolarizasyonun finansal gelişme üzerindeki etkilerini 1996-2024 dönemi çeyreklik verileriyle incelemektedir. Analizde, hem ani hem de yumuşak yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan genişletilmiş ARDL (AARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, dolarizasyonun finansal gelişme üzerinde genel olarak negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu, ancak yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde bu etkinin hafiflediğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, dolarizasyonun finansal sistem üzerindeki etkisinin enflasyon koşullarına bağlı olarak değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dolarizasyon
• Finansal Gelişme
• AARDL
• Enflasyon

The Effects of Dollarization on Financial Development: The Case of Türkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of dollarization on financial development in Türkiye using quarterly data from 1996 to 2024. The analysis employs an augmented ARDL (AARDL) approach that accounts for both sharp and smooth breaks. The findings indicate that dollarization generally has a negative impact on financial development, but this effect is mitigated during periods of high inflation. This evidence suggests that the impact of dollarization on the financial system varies depending on inflationary conditions.

Keywords

• Dollarization
• Financial Development
• AARDL
• Inflation

Kaynakça

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