Öz
Ülkeler arasında
yaşam standardı farklılıklarının en önemli belirleyicisi verimlilik düzeyidir. Küresel
krizden önce pek çok gelişmiş ekonomide emek verimliliğindeki artış hız kesse
de; verimlilik artışındaki yavaşlama, krizden sonra, daha çok dikkat çekmeye
başlamıştır. Kriz sonrasında emek verimliliğindeki durağanlaşma sadece gelişmiş
ekonomilerin sorunu mudur, yoksa gelişen ekonomiler de bu sorundan etkilenmekte
midir? Bu çalışmada G-20 ekonomileri özelinde, bu soruya cevap aranmıştır.
Çalışmada, sadece G-20’nin gelişmiş ekonomilerinde değil, gelişen
ekonomilerinde de kriz sonrasında emek verimliliğinin yavaşladığı tespit
edilmiştir. Yine, G-20’de çok sayıda gelişmiş ekonomide ve Türkiye gibi bazı
gelişen ekonomilerde, krizden sonra, emek kullanımına hız verildiği tespit
edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bir diğer bulgusu G-20’nin gelişmiş ekonomilerinde, demografik
fırsat penceresinden büyümeye gelen katkının artık sona ermesidir. Ancak bu
sadece gelişmiş ekonomilerin sorunu değildir. Çin ve Rusya gibi bazı gelişen G-20
ekonomilerinde de demografik fırsat penceresinin büyümeye sağladığı getiri artık
sona ermiştir. Yine çalışmada, Türkiye’de de demografik getirinin sınırlarına
yaklaşıldığı tespit edilmiştir. Önümüzdeki dönemde büyüme dinamikleri
açısından, Türkiye’de kapanan demografik fırsat penceresinin çokça tartışılacak
başlıklardan biri olacağı anlaşılmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Emek Verimliliği Emek Kullanımı Demografik Fırsat Penceresi Ekonomik Büyüme Büyümenin Kaynakları
Kaynakça
- Adler, G., Duval, R., Furceri D., Çelik, S., Koloskova, K., ve Poplawski-Riberio, M, (2017). Gone with the headwinds: Global productivity. IMF Discussion Note.
- Cette, G., Fernald, J. ve Mojon, B. (2016). The pre-great recession slowdown in productivity. European Economic Review, 88, 3-20
- Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109
- Islam, N. (2003). What have we learnt from the convergence debate? Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(3), 309-362 Krugman, P., (1997). The age of diminished expectations U.S. economic policy in the 1990s. 2nd Printing. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press
- Lagarde, C, (2017). Reinvigorating productivity growth. https://www.imf.org-/en/News/Articles/2017/04/03/sp040317-reinvigorating-productivity-growth
- Liu, Y., Westelius N., (2016). The impact of demographics on productivity and inflation in Japan. IMF Working Paper. WP/16/237
- OECD. (2001). Measuring productivity OECD manual. Paris: OECD Publishing
- OECD. (2016). Compendium of productivity indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing
- OECD. (2017). Compendium of productivity indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing
- OECD. (2018). Compendium of productivity indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing
- Summers, L. (2015). Have we entered an age of secular stagnation? IMF fourteenth annual research conference in honor of Stanley Fischer. IMF Economic Review, 63(1), 277-280
- Tang, J., ve Wang, W. (2004). Sources of aggregate labour productivity growth in Canada and the United States. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 37(2), 421-444
- Vandenbroucke, G., (2017). Boomers have played a role in changes in productivity. The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-11
- Weil, D. N., (2005). Economic growth. 1st edition. U.S.: Pearson Education Inc.
Öz
The level of productivity is the main determinant of differences in
standard of living between countries. Although labour productivity had already
decelerated in many developed economies, productivity slowdown has been rising
noticeably after global economic crisis. In this study, focusing on G-20
economies, tried to explore whether labour productivity slowdown is a matter
only for developed economies or also is a problem for developing economies
after the crisis. The study finds that labour productivity has been
decelerating not only in developed G-20 economies, but also in developing G-20
economies after the global economic crisis. The study also reveals that after
the crisis many high-income economies in G-20 and some developing economies
such as Turkey accelerated labour utilization. Another finding, the
contribution to growth that comes from demographic window of opportunity has
already closed for developed G-20 economies. But this is the problem not only
for developed economies. The demographic dividend has also ended in some
developing G-20 economies such as China and Russia. The study also concluded
that Turkey is also approaching the limits of demographic dividend. In the following period, this will be
an important debate topic in Turkey, in terms of economic growth dynamics.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Labour Productivity Labour Utilization Demographic Window of Opportunity Economic growth Sources of Growth
Kaynakça
- Adler, G., Duval, R., Furceri D., Çelik, S., Koloskova, K., ve Poplawski-Riberio, M, (2017). Gone with the headwinds: Global productivity. IMF Discussion Note.
- Cette, G., Fernald, J. ve Mojon, B. (2016). The pre-great recession slowdown in productivity. European Economic Review, 88, 3-20
- Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 100-109
- Islam, N. (2003). What have we learnt from the convergence debate? Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(3), 309-362 Krugman, P., (1997). The age of diminished expectations U.S. economic policy in the 1990s. 2nd Printing. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press
- Lagarde, C, (2017). Reinvigorating productivity growth. https://www.imf.org-/en/News/Articles/2017/04/03/sp040317-reinvigorating-productivity-growth
- Liu, Y., Westelius N., (2016). The impact of demographics on productivity and inflation in Japan. IMF Working Paper. WP/16/237
- OECD. (2001). Measuring productivity OECD manual. Paris: OECD Publishing
- OECD. (2016). Compendium of productivity indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing
- OECD. (2017). Compendium of productivity indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing
- OECD. (2018). Compendium of productivity indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing
- Summers, L. (2015). Have we entered an age of secular stagnation? IMF fourteenth annual research conference in honor of Stanley Fischer. IMF Economic Review, 63(1), 277-280
- Tang, J., ve Wang, W. (2004). Sources of aggregate labour productivity growth in Canada and the United States. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 37(2), 421-444
- Vandenbroucke, G., (2017). Boomers have played a role in changes in productivity. The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-11
- Weil, D. N., (2005). Economic growth. 1st edition. U.S.: Pearson Education Inc.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Aralık 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 22 |
