Impact of the Atatürk Dam on the propagation of meteorological drought in Şanlıurfa province

Yıl 2024, , 385 - 400, 28.09.2024

Ali Demir Keskiner , Tuba Yücel , Gökhan İsmail Tuylu , Mehmet Şimşek

https://doi.org/10.29050/harranziraat.1458863

Öz

Global warming is considered one of the most significant causes of climate change. The increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, etc. in recent years is evaluated as a sign of climate change. In this context, the study conducted in Şanlıurfa province, which has a surface area of 19.242 km², aimed to determine the spatial and temporal propagation of meteorological drought in two different periods using the De Martonne (IDM), De Martonne-Gottman (IDMG) and Erinç (Im) methods. Long-term monthly total precipitation (mm), average temperature (⁰C) and average maximum temperature (⁰C) series obtained from 12 meteorological observation stations located within and outside the provincial borders were used as source material. The annual drought index values were calculated for each station using three methods. Missing years in the calculated drought index series were completed by correlation and regression analysis. Taking the year 1991, when the Atatürk Dam started to hold water, as the starting year of the 2nd period, the series of stations were divided into 2 different time scales: the 1st period (1961-1990) and the 2nd period (1991-2020). Using the median values of the drought index series representing the stations, IDM, IDMG and Im “Annual Climate Class Maps” of Şanlıurfa were produced for 2 different periods with a resolution of 200x200 m by the Inverse Distance Method. Consequently, the spatial and temporal propagation of meteorological drought in Şanlıurfa province according to IDM, IDMG and Im methods is from south to north, the severity of drought increases in period 2, the Atatürk Dam could not prevent the propagation of drought and there is no significant difference between the methods in terms of determining drought propagation. If global warming continues at the current rate until the end of this century, Akçakale, Ceylanpınar and Viranşehir have been identified as priority drought-affected areas and are likely to experience severe droughts and face desertification.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate classification, Desertification, De Martonne, De Martonne-Gottman, Erinç

Impact of the Atatürk Dam on the propagation of meteorological drought in Şanlıurfa province

Öz

In recent years, the increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, etc. is evaluated as a sign of climate change. In this context, the study conducted in Şanlıurfa province, aimed to determine the spatial and temporal propagation of meteorological drought in two different periods using the De Martonne (IDM), De Martonne-Gottman (IDMG) and Erinç (Im) methods. Long-term monthly total precipitation (mm), average temperature (⁰C) and average maximum temperature (⁰C) series obtained from 12 meteorological observation stations were utilized to calculate the annual drought index values for each station. Missing years in the calculated drought index series were completed by correlation and regression analysis. Taking the year 1991, when the Atatürk Dam started to hold water, as the starting year of the 2nd period, the series of stations were divided into 2 different time scales: the 1st period (1961-1990) and the 2nd period (1991-2020). "Şanlıurfa Annual Climate Class Maps" for each method were produced for two different periods. Consequently, the spatial and temporal propagation of meteorological drought in Şanlıurfa province according to IDM, IDMG and Im methods is from south to north. The severity of drought increases in period 2, the Atatürk Dam could not prevent the propagation of drought and there is no significant difference between the methods in terms of determining drought propagation. If global warming continues at the current rate until the end of this century, Akçakale, Ceylanpınar and Viranşehir are likely to experience severe droughts and face desertification.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Climate classification, Desertification, De Martonne, De Martonne-Gottman, Erinç

Kaynakça

• Aktaş, S., Kalyoncuoğlu, Ü.Y., & Anadolu Kılıç, N.C. (2018). Drought analysis using De Martonne method in the Eğirdir Lake basin. Journal of Engineering Sciences and Design, 6(2), 29-238.
• Andrade, C., Contente, J., & Santos, J. A. (2021). Climate change projections of aridity conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. Water, 13(15), 2035.
• Aparecido, L.E.D., De Moraes, J.R.D.C., De Meneses, K.C., Torsoni, G.B., De Lima, R.F., & Costa, C.T.S. (2020). Koppen-geiger and camargo climate classifications for the Midwest of Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142, 1133–1145.
• Birpinar, M.E., & Tuğaç, C. (2018). Impacts of climate change on the water resources of Turkey. 4th International Conference Water Resources and Wetlands (pp. 145-152), 5-9 September 2018, Tulcea, Romania.
• Bozkurt, D. (2013). Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin (Unpublished PhD thesis). Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul.
• Cetin, M., & Diker, K. (2003). Assessing drainage problem areas by GIS: A case study in the Eastern Mediterranean Region of Turkey. Irrigation and Drainage, 52, 343-353.
• Çetin, M., Özcan, H., & Tülücü, K. (2001). A Research on the Spatial Variability of some Soil Physical and Groundwater Chemical Properties in the Fourth Stage Project Area of the Lower Seyhan Plain (ASO) Using Geostatistical Techniques. Technical Report, Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289673015_
• Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H., & Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 1(1), 22-43.
• DSİ, (2022). State Hydraulic Works (DSİ) Dams and Ponds in Operation. Retrieved from : https://bolge15.dsi.gov.tr/Sayfa/Detay/803.
• Dursun, İ., & Babalık, A.A. (2021). Determination of drought using De Martonne-Gottman and Standardized Precipitation Index methods: A case study in Isparta province. Turkish Journal of Forestry, 22(3), 192-201.
• Gümüş, V., Başak, A., & Oruç, N. (2016). Drought analysis of Sanliurfa station with Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Harran University Journal of Engineering, 1(1), 36-44.
• HGM, (2022). Surface area of the province and district of Türkiye. The General Directorate of Mapping, Retrieved from: https://www.harita.gov.tr/urun/il-ve-ilce-yuzolcumleri/176.
• Hrnjak, I., Lukić, T., Gavrilov, M. B., Marković, S. B., Unkašević, M., & Tošić, I. (2014). Aridity in Vojvodina, Serbia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 115, 323-332.
• İrcan, M.R., & Duman, N. (2021). Drought analysis of the Sanliurfa province using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Method. Journal of Geography, 42: 1-18.
• Kayıkçıoğlu, H.H., & Okur, N. (2012). The Role of agriculture in greenhouse gas emissions. Journal of Adnan Menderes University Agricultural Faculty, 9 (2), 25-38.
• Kendal, E., & Sayar, M. S. (2013). Dicle ve Fırat Havzalarında bilinçsiz sulamanın ekolojik denge üzerinde oluşturduğu riskler. Türk Bilimsel Derlemeler Dergisi (in Turkish), 1, 89-91.
• Kesici, T., & Kocabaş, Z. (1998). Biyoistatistik. Ankara Üniversitesi Eczacılık Fakültesi (in Turkish), Yayın No:79, Ankara.
• Keskiner, A. D. (2022). Identifying the areas at risk of meteorological drought by Aydeniz Method in Sanliurfa. Harran University Journal of Engineering, 7(3), 139-151.
• Keskiner, A., & Cetin, M. (2023a). Modelling spatiotemporal tendencies of climate types by Markov chain approach: A case study in Sanliurfa province in the south-eastern of Turkey. MAUSAM, 74(3), 621-638.
• Keskiner, A. D., & Çetin, M. (2023b). Determination of trend and magnitude of drought events in time and space: An application in the area of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP). Journal of Polytechnic, 26(3),1079-1089.
• Küçüksakarya, S., & Göçmen, A.H. (2019). An analysis on the economıc value of water. Anadolu University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 20 (2), 44-62.
• Mann, E.M. (2014). Earth will cross the climate danger threshold by 2036. Retrieved from: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036/.
• MGM, (2016a). Climate. the Turkish State Meteorological Service, Retrieved from: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/iklim_siniflandirmalari/Demartonne.pdf
• MGM, (2016b). Climate. the Turkish State Meteorological Service, Retrieved from: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/iklim/iklim_siniflandirmalari/Erinc.pdf
• Mikhaylov, A., Moiseev, N., Aleshin, K., & Burkhardt, T. (2020). Global climate change and greenhouse effect, Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7 (4), 2897-2913.
• Mishra, A.K., & Singh, V.P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391, 202-216.
• NASA, (2024). How do we know climate change is real?. Retrieved from: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
• Oğuz, K., & Akın, B.S. (2019). Evaluation of temperature, precipitation and aerosol variation in Eastern Mediterranean Basin. Journal of Engineering Sciences and Design, 7(2), 244-253.
• Özelkan, E. (2019). Evaluation of temporal change of dam lake area determined by remote sensing with meteorological drought: A case study in Atikhisar Dam (Çanakkale). Turkısh Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 6 (4), 904-916.
• Özmen, F. (2022). Making drought analysis with various drought indices using Long-year climate data of Batman and Diyarbakir provinces and comparıng with the literatüre (Unpublished MSc. thesis). Batman University, Institute of Graduate Studies of Batman University the Degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering, Batman.
• Partigöç, N. S., & Soğancı, S. (2019). An inevitable consequence of global climate change: Drought. Resilience Journal, 3 (2), 287-299.
• Ryan, B.F., & Cryer, J. (2005). Minitab Handbook Fifth Edition Regression and Correlation. Belmont, California.
• Selek, Z., & Pınarlık, M. (2019). A study on the reservoir sedimentation of Çakmak Dam located in the Yeşilırmak River Basin. Journal of Polytechnic, 22(3), 715-721.
• Sepetçioğlu, M. Y., Yenigün, K., Karakuş, S., & Aslan, V. (2018). A comparison of irrigation networks with Sanliurfa provincial Irrigations Results. Turkish Journal of Hydraulic, 2(1), 19-30.
• Soydan Oksal, N. G., & Beden, N. (2024). Drought analysis based on SPI and RDI drought indices in the Burdur Basin. Turkish Journal of Engineering, 8 (1), 127-138.
• Taylan, E. D., & Damçayırı, D. (2016). The prediction of precipitations of Isparta region by using IDW and Kriging. Teknik Dergi, 27(3), 7551-7559.
• Temur, B., Akhoundnejad, Y., Daşgan, H.Y., & Ersoy, L. (2023). The effect of foliar application of potassium fertilizers on macro-micro element and antioxidant content of tomatoes grown under drought stress. Harran Journal of Agricultural and Food Science, 27(1), 15-29.
• Tutuş, Y. & Erdem, H. (2023). Effects of drought stress on yield and yield components of Triticum spelta genotypes. Harran Journal of Agricultural and Food Science, 27(1), 83-93.
• Tüzer, M., & Doğan, S. (2021). The Sscientific foundations of climate change. Social Sciences Research Journal (SSRJ), 10 (3), 639-656.
• WMO, (2024). WMO statement on the state of the global climate in 2018. Retrieved from: https://library.wmo.int/.
• YDO, (2018). Sanliurfa, the pioneer in agriculture and agriculture-based food industry with its expansive and fertile lands. Retrieved from:https://www.investsanliurfa.com/public/uploads/attachment/ingilizce-tarim-kitapcigi-2018-1545895623.pdf
• Yüksel Küskü, D. & Söylemezoğlu, G. (2022). Effects of drought and salt stress on total phenolic compound and antioxidant capacities of V. vinifera x V. rupestris hybrids. Harran Journal of Agricultural and Food Science, 26(1), 72-81.