EFFECTS OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK ON TURKISH STOCK MARKET: A SECTORAL-LEVEL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has brought uncertainties to all countries in the world, causing human suffering and economic downturn that are unprecedented in recent history. This paper is the first empirical research that analyzes the effects of the outbreak on the Turkish stock market. The paper employed a fixed-effect model with daily data to explore the economic impact of the global pandemic at the sectoral level. Findings showed that sectoral indices were affected by the number of cases reported in Turkey than the number of cases in Europe and in the world. Furthermore, the most adversely affected sectors were metal products, machinery and sports, insurance and banking sectors. Despite the substantial economic downturn, food-beverage, wholesale and retail trade and real estate investment sectors have been the less affected industries from the outbreak.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Pandemic
• Borsa Istanbul
• Sectoral Indices
• Panel Data

KOVİD-19 Pandemisinin Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Etkileri: Sektörel Bir Analiz

Öz

Yeni Koronavirüs (KOVİD-19), tüm dünya ekonomilerinin öngöremediği büyüklükteki belirsizlikleri beraberinde getirmiş, ülkelerin daha önce karşılaşmadığı bir insani ve iktisadi kriz ortamına sebep olmuştur. Bu çalışma, KOVİD-19 salgının finans piyasaları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak inceleyen ilk çalışmadır. Bu makalede, KOVİD-19 virüsünün neden olduğu küresel pandeminin sektörel düzeydeki ekonomik etkileri günlük verilerin sabit etkiler yöntemiyle incelenmesi suretiyle açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bulgular, sektörel endekslerin Avrupa ve Dünya vaka sayılarından ziyade Türkiye’deki vaka sayılarından daha çok etkilendiğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca, KOVİD-19 salgınının olumsuz ekonomik etkileri en çok metal ürünleri ve makine sektörlerinde görülmektedir. Spor, bankacılık ve sigortacılık sektörleri ise bu endüstrileri takip etmektedir. Yaşanan ekonomik durgunluğa rağmen ülkede yiyecek-içecek, toptan-perakende satış ve gayrimenkul yatırım sektörleri ise salgından en az etkilenen sektörler olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• KOVID-19
• Pandemi
• Borsa İstanbul
• Sektörel Endeksler
• Panel Veri

Kaynakça

1. Agricultural Market Information System. (2020). COVID-19 may spare global food markets, but not vulnerable countries. Retrieved from: http://www.amis-outlook.org/news/detail/en/c/1152577/
2. Arndt, C. and Lewis, J. D. (2001). The HIV/AIDS pandemic in South Africa: Sectoral Impacts and Unemployment, Journal of International Development, 13(4), 427-49. doi:10.1002/jid.796
3. Ba Sui, A. and Wong, Y. C. R. (2004). Economic impact of SARS: The Case of Hong-Kong, Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 62-83. doi:10.1162/1535351041747996
4. Baldwin, R. and Tomiure, E. (2020). Thinking ahead about the trade impact of COVID-19, Economics in the time of COVID-19’, CEPR, London, chapter 5, 59–71, Retrieved from: https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/news/COVID-19.pdf
5. BBC (2020). Global economy will suffer for years to come, says OECD. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52000219
6. Bell, C., Devarajan, S. and Gersbach, H. (2004). Thinking about the long-run economic costs of AIDS, The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS, M. Haacker (eds), Washington DC, IMF: 96-144, Retrieved from: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF071/14315-9781589063600/14315-9781589063600/ch03.xml?language=en
7. Chou, J., Kuo, N-F., and Peng, S-L. (2004). Potential impacts of the SARS outbreak on Taiwan's Economy, Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 84-112. doi: 10.1162/1535351041747969
8. Chen, D-D., Chen, C-C., and Tang, W-W. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of the Sars Outbreak: A Case of the Taiwan Industries, The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 281-293. doi: 10.1353/jda.0.0041

9. Cuddington, J. T. (1993). Modeling the macroeconomic effects of AIDS, with an application to Tanzania, World Bank Economic Review, 7(2), 173-89. doi: 10.1093/wber/7.2.173
10. Çağlı, E. Ç. and Mandacı, P. E. (2017). Borsa İstanbul’da rasyonel balon varlığı: Sektör endeksleri üzerine bir analiz, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(629), 63-76. Retrieved from: http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/files/articles/152820006582_4.pdf
11. Çıtak, F. (2019). An empirical investigation of bubble in the Turkish Stock Market, International Journal of Economics and Innovation, 5(2), 247-262. doi: 10.20979/ueyd.582296
12. Freire, S., (2004). Impact of HIV/AIDS on saving behavior in South Africa, African development and poverty reduction: the macro-micro linkage, Lord Charles Hotel, Somerset West, South Africa, Retrieved from: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.562.805&rep=rep1&type=pdf
13. Haacker, M. (2002a). The economic consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa, IMF Working Paper W/02/38, 41-95. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp0238.pdf
14. Haacker, M. Ed. (2004b). The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. IMF, Washington DC
15. Hai, W., Zhao, Z., Wang, J. and Hou, Z-G. (2004). The Short-Term impact of SARS on the Chinese Economy, Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 57-61. doi: 10.1162/1535351041747905
16. Lee, J. W. and McKibbin, W. J. (2004). Globalization and disease: The case of SARS, Asian Economic Papers, 3(1), 113-131. doi: 10.1162/1535351041747932
17. McKibbin, W., J. and Fernando, R. (2020). The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios, CAMA Working paper, 1-43, The Australian National University, (forthcoming). doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3547729
18. Olivier, D. (2004). The effects of SARS on the Chinese tourism industry, Journal of Vacation Marketing, 10(1), 4-10. doi: 10.1177/135676670301000101
19. Over, M. (2002). The macroeconomic impact on HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Africa Technical Department Population, Health and Nutrition Dıvision (AFTEN) Working Paper, No.3, Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, Retrieved from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/224361468767701211/pdf/multi0page.pdf
20. Overby, J. M., Rayburn, K. H., and Wyld, D. C. (2004). The China syndrome: The impact of the SARS epidemic in Southeast Asia. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 16(1), 69-94. doi: 10.1108/13555850410765131
21. Ramelli, S. and Wagner, A. F. (March 2020). Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19 CEPR Discussion Paper No, DP14511, 1-51, Retrieved from: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3560319
22. Reuters (2020). IMF chief says pandemic will unleash worst recession since Great Depression. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-imf/imf-chief-says-pandemic-will-unleash-worst-recession-since-great-depression-idUSKCN21R1SM
23. Thunstrom, L., Newbold, S., Finnoff, D., Ashworth, M., and Shogren, J. F. (2020). The benefits and costs of using social distancing to flatten the curve for COVID-19. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, (forthcoming). doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3561934
24. Zeren, F, and Hızarcı, A.E. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 coronavirus on stock markets: evidence from selected countries, Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 3(1), 78-84. doi: 10.32951/mufider.70615